Indicator based surveillance in the Eurozone: a progress towards objectification of policy decisions?

Transkript

1 Indicator based surveillance in the Eurozone: a progress towards objectification of policy decisions? Abstract Europeans Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) is facing growing internal and external imbalances. The causes, impacts and possible solutions of these imbalances are broadly discussed in academic literature 1. Most scholars argue that the growth of these imbalances is deeply linked with the introduction of the Euro as the common EMU currency and the corresponding loss of the exchange rate mechanism in order to adjust against asymmetrical economic shocks 2. The theoretical framework of such an analysis is based on the seminal contribution of Robert Mundell in a Theory of Optimum currency Areas (1961), which explores the factors that could reduce the costs of forming a monetary union between two or more regions (or countries) 3. Drawing from the Optimum currency literature (OCA) it becomes apparent that the EMU inadequately fulfils the optimal requirements in many of the factors. 4. Economic and financial crisis in Europe draw much attention to the topic of OCA, macroeconomic imbalances and the systemic roots of Europe s crisis. This paper provides a brief overview of the new macroeconomic surveillance mechanisms introduced in account of EMUs crisis (chapter 1). In the the second chapter we put forward an analysis framework of the surveillance mechanism drawing special attention to legitimacy aspects of these measures. Especially the MIP (Six-Pack legislature), which analysis framework is based on a set of narrowly defined scoreboard-indicators, should provide insights regarding the repercussions of indicator based policy decisions and democratic legitimation. The third chapter brings the paper to a close by drawing conclusions about unresolved tensions in EMU and discusses policy advises. 1 see for example: Beetsma/Giuliodori (2010); Kohler (2012); Buiter et. al (2011); Lapavitsas et. al (2010); De Grauwe (2012); Sinn/Wollmerhäuser (2011); Essl/Stiglbauer (2011); Keuschnigg (2012); Buiter/Ebrahim (2011); Rodrigues (2012), Flassbeck/Spiecker (2011) 2 vgl. Halak (2012: 35f) 3 originally see Mundell (1961); McKinnon (1963); Kenen (1989), for example Mongelli (2002) provides a good overview about recent developments concerning OCA 4 vgl. Halak (2012: 67)

2 Goal of the paper The goal of the paper is to discuss the political-legitimacy of an indicator based-policy in EMU. While EU officials claim that indicator-based policies should help to objectivise economic policy decisions and should be assessed as a clear progress in Europe s economic framework, critical authors, such as Straßheim (2012) emphasizes that indicator based policy decisions are only neutral at the first glance: In principle it is suggested, that a decision based on epistemic authority and evidence is from a rational perspective the only eligible and at the same time plausible decision- and practical relevant option 5 (own translation from German). Straßheim (2012) argues further that the apparent neutrality and objectivity of an indicator based policy analysis is always based on political conflicts and positions of power 6 veiling policy alternatives and political discussion 7. Klatzer and Schlager (2012) add that the new surveillance mechanism is a further step in a silent neo-liberal revolution 8. Legitimacy as a multidimensional concept 9 is hard to measure empirically. Nonetheless the aim of the paper is to show that indicator-based policies obscure the economic agenda of EMU, without adding to the legitimacy of such a policies. 5 Straßheim (2012: 1f) 6 Straßheim (2012: 2) 7 ebd. 8 Klatzer/Schlager (2012) 9 Schmidtke/Schneider (2012)

3 Literature: Momentum13: Fortschritt Backè, P./Wòjcik, C. (2002): Alternative Options for the Monetary Integration of Central and Eastern European EU Accession Countries, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis; online unter: webarchive.iiasa.ac.at/admin/pub/documents/ir ps Beetsma, R. / Giuliodori, M. (2010): The Macroeconomic Costs and Benefits of the EMU and Other Monetary Unions : An Overview of Recent Research, Journal of Economic Literature 48 pp ; online unter: Brandtner, C./ Kinschner, M./ Polzer, T. (2012): Unternehmen Österreich?, Wirkungsorientierung am Grad zwischen Technokratie und Demokratie Buiter, W. / Rhabari, E. (2011), The Future of the Euro Area: Fiscal Union, Break-up or Blundering Towards a 'You Break It You Own It Europe', Citigroup, Global Economics View, 9. September 2011; online unter: Buiter, W. / Rhabari, E. / Michels, J. (2011): The implications of intra-euro area imbalances in credit flows, CEPR Policy Insight, No. 57; online unter: De Grauwe, P. (2012): In search of symmetry in the eurozone, CEPS Policy Brief No. 268, 2012; online unter: Europäische Kommission (2012): Commission staff working document: Completing the Scoreboard for the MIP: Financial Sector Indicator; online unter: sector_en.pdf Europäische Kommission (2010): Mitteilung der Europäischen Kommission, Europa 2020: Eine Strategie für intelligentes, nachhaltiges und integratives Wachstum, Brüssel; online unter: Europäischer Rat (2012): Vertrag über Stabilität, Koordinierung und Steuerung in der Wirtschafts- und Währungsunion; online unter: european-council.europa.eu/media/639244/04_-_tscg.de.12.pdf Europäisches Parlament (2012a): Verordnung über gemeinsame Bestimmungen für die Überwachung und Bewertung der Übersichten über die gesamtstaatliche Haushaltsplanung und für die Gewährleistung der Korrektur übermäßiger Defizite der Mitgliedstaaten im Euro-Währungsgebiet; online unter: Europäisches Parlament (2012b): Verordnung über den Ausbau der wirtschafts- und haushaltspolitischen Überwachung von Mitgliedstaaten, die von gravierenden Schwierigkeiten in Bezug auf ihre finanzielle Stabilität im Euro-Währungsgebiet betroffen oder bedroht sind; online unter: Europäisches Parlament (2011): Euro-Plus-Pakt, online unter: Essl, S. / Stiglbauer, A. (2011): Prevention and Correction of Macroeconomic Imbalances: The Excessive Imbalance Procedure, pp , Monetary Policy & The Economy 4/2011, OeNB; online unter: Flassbeck, H./Spiecker, F. (2011): The Euro a Story of Misunderstanding, Intereconomics Vol. 46, No. 4, pp , online unter: Ferreira E. (2012): Bericht über den Vorschlag für eine Verordnung des Europäischen Parlaments und des Rates über gemeinsame Bestimmungen für die Überwachung und Bewertung der und Bewertung der Übersichten über die gesamtstaatliche Haushaltsplanung und für die Gewährleistung der Korrektur übermäßiger Defizite der

4 Mitgliedstaaten im Euro-Währungsgebiet; online unter: Gauzès, J. P. (2012): Bericht über den Vorschlag für eine Verordnung des Europäischen Parlaments und des Rates über den Ausbau der wirtschafts- und haushaltspolitischen Überwachung von Mitgliedstaaten, die von gravierenden Schwierigkeiten in Bezug auf ihre finanzielle Stabilität im Euro-Währungsgebiet betroffen oder bedroht sind; online unter: Gloggnitzer, S. / Lindner, I. (2011): Reform der wirtschaftspolitischen Steuerung und finanzielle Stabilisierung vertragliche Grundlagen und zwischenstaatliche Entscheidungen, in: OeNB (2011): Geldpolitik und Wirtschaft, Quartal 4/2011; online unter: Gros, D. (2012): Draft: How to deal with Macroeconomic Imbalances? ; online unter: Halak, J. (2012): Europa, quo vadis? Kenen, P. (1969): The Theory of Optimum Currency Areas: An Eclectic View in R. Mundell and A. Swoboda (Eds.), Monetary Problems of the International Economy, The University of Chicago Press, Chicago, Klatzer, E. /Schlager, C. (2011):. Europäische Wirtschasregierung eine stille neoliberale Revolution, Kurswechsel 1/2011, pp: Lapavitsas, C. /Kaltenbrunner, A. /Lambrinidis, G. /Lindo, D. /Meadway, J. /Michell, J. /Painceira, J.P. /Pires, E. /Powell, J. /Stenfors, A. /Teles, N. (2010): The eurozone between austerity and default, RMF occasional report; online unter: McKinnon, R. I. (1963): Optimum Currency Areas, in American Economic Review, Vol 53, September, ; Mongelli, F.P. (2002): New views on the optimum currency area theory: what is EMU telling us?, Working Paper No. 138, European Central Bank; online unter: Mundell, R.A. (1961): A Theory of Optimum Currency Areas, The American Economic Review, Vol. 51, No. 4, pp ; online unter: Rodrigues, M.J. (2012): Mapping Future Scenarios for the Eurozone, Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung, International Policy Analysisonline unter: Sinn, H.W. / Wollmerhäuser, T. (2011): Target Loans, Current Account Balances and Capital Flows: The ECB`s Rescue Facility, CESIFO Working Paper No. 3500, online unter: Friedbert Rüb/Holger Straßheim (2012): Politische Evidenz. Objektivierung als Legitimationspraxis. In: Daase, Christopher/Geis, Anna/Nullmeier, Frank: Der Aufstieg der Legitimitätspolitik. Rechtfertigung und Kritik politischökonomischer Ordnungen (Leviathan-Sonderheft). Baden-Baden: Nomos De Grauwe, Paul (2011), The Governance of a Fragile Eurozone, CEPS Working Document No. 346, Brussels. European Council (2011a), Euro Summit Statement, Brussels, 26. Oktober European Council (2011b), Statement by the Euro Area Heads of State or Government, Brussels, 9. Dezember Fuest, Clemens (2011), Will the Reform of the Institutional Framework Restore Fiscal Stability in the Eurozone?, CESifo Forum 2/2011,

5 Roubini, Nouriel (2011a), Four Options to Address the Eurozone's Stock and Flow Imbalances: The Rising Risk of a Disorderly Break-Up, Parguez, A., Lies and Truth About the Financial Crisis in the Eurozone. International Journal of Political Economy, 39(4), pp Available at: [Accessed December 16, 2012]. Holinski, N. C. Kool and J. Muysken (2012), Persistent Macroeconomic Imbalances in the Euro Area: Causes and Consequences, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, January/February 2012, 94 (1), pp Schmidtke, H./ Schneider, S. (2012): Mehtoden der empirischen Legitimitätsforschung: Legitimität als mehrdimensionales Konzept, IN: Geis, A/Nullmeier, F. /Daase C. (Hrsg. 2012): Der Aufstieg der Legitimitätspolitik: Rechtfertigung und Kritik politischökonomischer Ordnungen, Leviathan, Berliner Zeitrschift für Sozialwissenschaft, Sonderband 27, Nomos Verlag