Probabilistic LCF - investigation of a steam turbine rotor under transient thermal loads

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1 Probabilistic LCF - investigation of a steam turbine rotor Dipl. -Ing. David Pusch TU Dresden Professur für Turbomaschinen und Strahlantriebe Prof. Konrad Vogeler Dr. Ralf Voß Siemens AG Steam Turbines Mülheim an der Ruhr Dresden,

2 Probabilistic Design of Steam Turbine Components Design Citeria Slide 2 of XYZ

3 source: Slide 3 of XYZ

4 source: Solar and wind power are subjected to power fluctuations, which need to be compensated conventional power plants need to respond fast, flexible and reliable on power fluctuations in order to stay competitive and to guaranty a robust electricity grid Slide 4 of XYZ

5 Project Scope Investigation of thermo mechanic low cycle fatigue in steam turbine rotors Investigation of sensitivities to identify the main drivers of rotor LCF Use of probabilistic methods in order to take the impact of scattering or not well known boundary conditions on rotor lifetime into account With knowledge about the system s behavior it is possible to modify the design or to adjust the operation profiles in order to optimize the rotor lifetime. Thermal Expansion Slide 5 of XYZ

6 probabilistic system analysis Deterministic model Distribution of input parameters Probabilistic methods Correlations between input parameters Slide 6 of XYZ

7 Development of an FEM - Model Operating data steam temperature (t) steam pressure (t) FEM Metal temperatures (t) Mises Stress lifetime Unknown: T steam and htc at each point of turbine surface T e, p e Steam Flow T steam T i, p i Inner Casing htc T steam T steam Rotor htc htc Slide 7 of XYZ

8 Operating data Calculation of Thermal Boundary Conditions Calculation of local p steam and T steam by use of Stodola s cone law and 1d through flow modelling [2] Calculation of local heat transfer coefficients, using Nusselt correlations [1] Traupel, W., 1977, Thermische Turbomaschinen 1, 1, Springer, Berlin; Heidelberg [2] Stodola, A., Loewenstein, L.C., 1927, Steam and Gas Turbines, McGraw-Hill, New York [1] [1] Slide 8 of XYZ

9 Nusselt Correlations Nusselt correlation for labyrinth seals adapted to Siemens design [1] Nusselt correlation for blades adapted to Siemens design Nusselt correlation for turbulent duct flow or flat plate [1] [1] Traupel, W., 1977, Thermische Turbomaschinen 1, 1, Springer, Berlin; Heidelberg. Slide 9 of XYZ

10 Model Validation Operating Data Validation! Temperature Thermocouple HTC (x,t) T steam (x,t) Mises stress Slide 10 of XYZ

11 Simulation vs. Measurement Temperature Simulation Measurement 40K Adjustment of htc necessary in order to fit simulation result to measurement Time [s] Slide 11 of XYZ

12 Validation Target Values 60 dddddddddd = MMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM SSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS mmmmmmmm dddddddddd σσ dddddddddd 50 Temperature tt 0 dddddddddd tt normalized area between Measurement and Simulation Temperature [K] Time [s] Slide 12 of XYZ

13 Validation correction curve m 3 m 2 m 1 m NP 2 2 NP NP = relative rotational speed + relative power Correction curve referring to the Siemens in- house htc - correlation Slide 13 of XYZ

14 Monte-Carlo-Simulation m 0 01 KS_01 KS_02 KS_04 TT, σσ ΔTT, area m 1 02 TT, σσ ΔTT, area m 2 03 TT, σσ ΔTT, area min m 3 NP 2 60 TT, σσ ΔTT, area ProSi Pre ProSi Exe ProSi Post Slide 14 of XYZ

15 Comparison of System Behavior Spearman rank correlation coefficient COI (Coefficient of importance) 3. order response surface without (upper)/ with (lower) mixed terms m 0 m 1 m 2 m 3 NP2 R² m 0 m 1 m 2 m 3 NP2 all three cold starts show similar behavior Slide 15 of XYZ

16 Stepwise Reduction of Distribution Limits Selection of the 6 best Realisations Selection of the 6 best Realisations Selection of the 6 best Realisations Slide 16 of XYZ

17 Iterations 1-3 stdev Iteration 1 Iteration 2 Iteration area Slide 17 of XYZ

18 20 Temperatur [ C] Simulation Measurement Delta T [K] 0 Temperatur [ C] Simulation Measurement Delta T [K] Time [x1000 s] 0 Slide 18 of XYZ

19 20 15 Temperatur [ C] Simulation Measurement Delta 10 T [K] Time [x1000 s] 0 Slide 19 of XYZ

20 Next Steps Transfer of the findings to the rotor - model Probabilistic Investigation of rotor lifetime during transient operation, taking scattering boundary conditions, material properties, geometries, operation profiles, into account Transfer of Boundary conditions Slide 20 of XYZ

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