SOLAR TECHNOLOGIES FOR THE TRANSFORMATION OF OUR ENERGY SYSTEM

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1 SOLAR TECHNOLOGIES FOR THE TRANSFORMATION OF OUR ENERGY SYSTEM Eicke R. Weber Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE and University of Freiburg, Germany Fraunhofer-Chile Solar Seminar Centro de Innovacion UC Anacleto Angelini Santiago, Chile, May 27, 2015

2 A Radical Transformation of our Energy System is Needed Jeremy Rifkin: We are starting the 3 rd Industrial Revolution! Limited availability of fossil fuels Fossil fuels get scarce 2

3 A Radical Transformation of our Energy System is Needed Jeremy Rifkin: We are starting the 3 rd Industrial Revolution! Limited availability of fossil fuels Danger of drastic climate change: Global warming The world gets warmer 3

4 A Radical Transformation of our Energy System is Needed Jeremy Rifkin: We are starting the 3 rd Industrial Revolution! Limited availability of fossil fuels Temperature fluctuations in the last 100kys Danger of drastic climate change: Global warming Loss of climate stability Anthropocene Time before present present [kys] For reasons unknown, the last ca. 10,000 ys were extraordinary stable: Holocene 4

5 A Radical Transformation of our Energy System is Needed Jeremy Rifkin: We are starting the 3 rd Industrial Revolution! Limited availability of fossil fuels Temperature fluctuations in the last 100kys Danger of drastic climate change Risk of nuclear disasters Growing dependency on imports from politically unstable regions New since recently: Increasing economic opportunities! Time before present present [kys] For reasons unknown, the last ca. 10,000 ys were extraordinary stable: Holocene 5

6 CO 2 free energy resources Nuclear energy - non-renewable feedstock, dangers during operation, final storage unsolved: no sustainable solution for the global energy problem! 6

7 CO 2 free energy resources 7 Nuclear energy - non-renewable feedstock, dangers during operation, final storage unsolved: no sustainable solution for the global energy problem Clean coal technologies - require carbon sequestration and long-term storage, energy inefficient, may pose danger of accidental CO 2 release Wind low cost, but: fluctuating production, suitable sites limited Hydro - can be switched on instantaneously, suitable for storage, maximum production desirable, but: suitable sites limited Biofuels - interesting as liquid fuel for traffic, but: low efficiency of photosynthesis, production energy intensive, competition with food plants Geothermal - excellent where easily accessible (example: Iceland) Solar energy (Photovoltaics, Solarthermal) - unlimited energy resource PV: continuous price reductions through innovation, savings of scale

8 World EnergyRessources renewable finite World Energy Ressources (TWyear) SOLAR 23,000 per year per year Waves per year 3-11 per year OTEC WIND Natural Gas 215 Total 240 Total 2010 World energy use: 16 TWy per year 2 6 per year Biomass Petroleum 2050: 28 TW TIDES 0.3 per year 3 4 per year HYDRO per year Geothermal Total Uranium R. Perez et al. 900 Total reserve 8 COAL

9 renewable finite World Energy Ressources (TWyear) SOLAR 23,000 per year per year Waves per year 3-11 per year OTEC WIND Natural Gas 330 Total 310 Total 2010 World energy use 16 TWy per year 2 6 per year Biomass Petroleum 2050: 28 TW TIDES 0.3 per year 3 4 per year HYDRO per year Geothermal Total Uranium R. Perez et al. 900 Total reserve 9 COAL

10 Cornerstones for the Transformation of our Energy System to efficient use of finally 100% renewable energy Energy System 2.0 Energy efficiency: buildings, production, transport Massive increase in renewable energies: photovoltaics, solar and geo thermal, wind, hydro, biomass... Fast development of the electric grid: transmission and distribution grid, bidirectional Small and large scale energy storage systems: electricity, hydrogen, methane, methanol, biogas, solar heat, hydro... Sustainable mobility as integral part of the energy system: electric mobility with batteries and hydrogen/fuel cells 10

11 Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE Research for the Energy Transformation Largest European Solar Energy Research Institute about 1300 members of staff (incl. students) 18 % basic financing 82 % contract research, 24 % industry, 58 % public 86.1 M budget (2014, incl. investments) >10 % growth rate (until 2013) 11

12 Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE 12 Areas of Business Fotos Energy Efficient Buildings Silicon Photovoltaics III-V and Concentrator Photovoltaics Dye, Organic and Novel Solar Cells Photovoltaic Modules and Power Plants Solar Thermal Technology Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Technology Energy Efficient Power Electronics Zero-Emission Mobility Storage Technologies System Integration and Grids Electricity, Heat, Gas Energy System Analysis 12

13 Electricity generation from renewable energy Development in Germany Year 2013 Total* 25.4% PV 4.7% GW Bio 8.0% 48 Wind 8.9% GW Hydro 3.5% 21 * Gross electricity demand 13

14 Example: Scenario for 100% Renewable Energy Supply till 2050 in Germany Key Features: Strong decrease of heat demand from buildings (energy renovations, zero-energy houses Increase of combined-cycle heat/power plants Thermal storage for heating and cooling Coupling of electricity grid and gas pipelines through production of regenerative hydrogen and methan Introduction of e-mobility with batteryand fuel cell powered cars Use of liquid biofuels, especially for heavy trucks and air traffic 14

15 Price Learning Curve of Solar Energy (c-si Photovoltaics) - Driven by Innovation & Market Introduction! Preis über kumulierter Kapazität in GW Learning Rate: Each time the cumulative c-si PV production doubled, the price went down by 20 % - by a factor of 10 in 25 years! Solar Electricity Today: 8-10 ct/kwh in Germany, half in sun-rich countries! Source: Navigant Consulting; EUPD PV module prices (since 2006), Graph: ISE

16 PV Market Growth (IEA 2014) Rapid introduction of PV globally is fueled by availability of costcompetitive, distributed energy In 2050 between and GW p PV will be installed! By 2015, less than 200 GW p have been installed! We are just at the beginning of the global growth curve! Source: IEA

17 Crystalline Silicon Technology Portfolio c-si PV is not a Commodity, but a High-Tech Product! material quality diffusion length base conductivity device quality passivation of surfaces low series resistance light confinement cell structures PERC: Passivated Emitter and Rear Cell MWT: Metal Wrap Through IBC-BJ: Interdigitated Back Contact Back Junction HJT: Hetero Junction Technology 17 material quality Industry Standard 14% PERC 15% BC- HJT IBC-BJ HJT MWT- PERC 16% module efficiency 21% 20% 19% 18% 17% device quality Adapted from Preu et al., EU-PVSEC 2009

18 World Market Outlook: Experts are Optimistic Example Sarasin Bank, November 2010 market forecast (2010): 30 GW p in 2014, 110 GW p in 2020 annual growth rate: in the range of 20 % and 30 % 2014: ca. 45 GW p, 50 % above forecast! Growth rate Total Newly new installed installations (right) (right scale) Annual growth rate (left(left) scale) Source: Sarasin, Solar Study, Nov

19 Global PV Production Capacity and Installations Module Capacity (GW) Excess Capacity (GW) Outlook for the development of supply and demand in the global PV market. 19 Production Capacity Installations Excess Capacity Source: Lux Research Inc., Grafik: PSE AG

20 High-Efficiency III/V Based Triple-Junction Solar Cells 20 Slide: courtesy of F. Dimroth

21 World Record Solar Energy Conversion Efficiency: 46 % for a Wafer-Bonded Four-Junction Solar Cell! 21

22 Solar Thermal Systems Solar cooling and process heat for all sectors Methodology: Map the application potentials Component testing of durability Integration of solar thermal into processes agro-industry: freezing, drying, fermentation, sterilization, washing, mining industry: e.g. leaching, electro-winning, water, Energy efficiency concepts Results: Affordable and flexible technology Local supply chain and engineering (value and jobs) Minimized technical and financial risks Optimal business models 22

23 Combined CSP-CPV power plant One of a number of concepts for ALMA: 1MW CPV, 1MW CSP-turbine, 18hrs storage, 24hrs stable elctricity Combination of solar generators: CPV -> electricity supply for the day CSP+Storage -> supply for the night Results: Yearly solar yield: 10.4 GWh Operation hours: 8640 h Cost of electricity: ca.14 $ct/kwh Electricity from Diesel: >20 $ct/kwh! 23

24 Optimization of Germany s future energy system based on hourly modeling Comprehensive analysis of the overall system Electricity generation, storage and end-use Fuels (including biomass and synthetic fuels from RE) REMod-D Renewable Energy Model Deutschland Slide courtesy Hans-Martin Henning 2014 Mobility (batteryelectric, hydrogen, conv. fuel mix) Heat (buildings, incl. storage and heating networks) Processes in industry and tertiary sector 24

25 Optimization of Germany s future energy system based on hourly modeling erneuerbare Energien primäre Stromerzeugung fossil-nukleare Energien PV Wind On Wind Off Wasserkraft Atom-KW Steink.-KW Braunk.-KW Öl-KW 147 GW 120 GW 32 GW 5 GW 0 GW 7 GW 3 GW 0 GW Elektrolyse 33 GWel H2-Speicher 0 5 Batterien 4 9 Pump-Sp-KW 7 24 GWh 60 GWh Brennstoffe 394 Erdgas Biomasse Treibstoff Verkehr Sabatier 0 Methan-Sp. 0.0 GWgas Gasturbine 1 GW GuD-KW 3 GW KWK-GuD GWel 20 W-Speicher 173 GWh WP zentral GWth 40 Gebäude 59 Solarthermie GWth Wärmenetze mit GuD-KWK REMod-D Renewable Energy Model Deutschland Slide courtesy Hans-Martin Henning Strombedarf gesamt (ohne Strom für Wärme und MIV) ungenutzter Strom (Abregelung) KWK-BHKW GWel Solarthermie 6 3 W-Speicher 15 W-Speicher 7 GWth 27 GWh Verkehr (ohne 173 GWh 5 Schienenverkehr/Strom) 8 WP zentral Wasserstoff-basierter Verkehr 7 GWth Gas-WP Gebäude 82 Traktion Gebäude 15 GWth 41 H2-Bedarf Batterie-basierter Verkehr Solarthermie 13 Einzelgebäude mit Gas-Wärmepumpe Traktion GWth Wärmenetze mit Strombedarf 55 BHKW-KWK Brennstoff-basierter Verkehr Traktion 55 Brennstoffe 220 el. WP Sole W-Speicher Traktion gesamt GWth 103 GWh % Wert % Mini-BHKW 23 4 W-Speicher 6 GWel 46 GWh Solarthermie 9 GWth 8 45 Gebäude 60 Brennstoff-basierte Prozesse in Industrie und Gewerbe 4 gesamt 445 Solarthermie 3 22 Gebäude Einzelgebäude mit Sole-Wärmepumpe 420 Solarthermie 25 4 GWth 26 Brennstoffe 420 Einzelgebäude mit Mini-BHKW 4 6 Wärmebedarf gesamt 388 el. WP Luft W-Speicher Solarthermie 12 6 W-Speicher Raumheizung Warmwasser ungenutzt 19 GWth 87 GWh 14 GWth 56 GWh Solarthermie 8 GWth 7 39 Gebäude Gaskessel 32 GWth Gebäude Geothermie 2 GWth 6 Gebäude 6 Einzelgebäude mit Luft-Wärmepumpe Einzelgebäude mit Gaskessel Wärmenetze mit Tiefen-Geothermie 25

26 Electricity generation erneuerbare Energien primäre Stromerzeugung fossil-nukleare Energien PV Wind On Wind Off Wasserkraft Atom-KW Steink.-KW Braunk.-KW Öl-KW 147 GW 120 GW 32 GW 5 GW 0 GW 7 GW 3 GW 0 GW Slide courtesy Hans-Martin Henning Elektrolyse 33 GWel H2-Speicher Batterien 4 9 Pump-Sp-KW 7 24 GWh 60 GWh Biomasse Sabatier 0 Methan-Sp. 0.0 GWgas 0 23 Brennstoffe 394 Erdgas Treibstoff Verkehr Photovoltaics GW el 0 6 Gasturbine 1 GW KWK-GuD GWel 20 W-Speicher 173 GWh WP zentral GWth 40 Gebäude 59 Solarthermie GWth Wärmenetze mit GuD-KWK Strombedarf gesamt (ohne Strom für Wärme und MIV) GW ungenutzter Strom (Abregelung) 3 4 el 26 KWK-BHKW GWel Solarthermie 6 3 W-Speicher 15 W-Speicher 7 GWth 27 GWh Verkehr (ohne 173 GWh 5 Schienenverkehr/Strom) 8 WP zentral Wasserstoff-basierter Verkehr 7 GWth Gas-WP Gebäude 82 Traktion Gebäude 15 GWth 41 H2-Bedarf Batterie-basierter Verkehr Solarthermie 13 Einzelgebäude mit Gas-Wärmepumpe Traktion GWth Wärmenetze mit Strombedarf 55 BHKW-KWK Brennstoff-basierter Verkehr Traktion 55 Brennstoffe 220 el. WP Sole W-Speicher Traktion gesamt GWth 103 GWh % Wert % Medium and large size CHP Mini-BHKW 23 4 W-Speicher 6 GWel 46 GWh Solarthermie 8 45 Gebäude Brennstoff-basierte Prozesse in 4 9 GWth 60 Industrie und Gewerbe gesamt 445 Solarthermie 3 22 Gebäude Einzelgebäude mit Sole-Wärmepumpe 60 GW el 420 Solarthermie 25 4 GWth 26 Brennstoffe 420 Einzelgebäude mit Mini-BHKW 4 6 Wärmebedarf gesamt 388 el. WP Luft W-Speicher Solarthermie 12 6 W-Speicher Raumheizung Warmwasser ungenutzt 19 GWth 87 GWh 14 GWth 56 GWh Solarthermie 8 GWth 7 39 Gebäude Gaskessel 32 GWth Gebäude Geothermie 2 GWth 6 Gebäude 6 Einzelgebäude mit Luft-Wärmepumpe GuD-KW 3 GW 0 3 Onshore Wind (connected to district heating) Einzelgebäude mit Gaskessel Offshore Wind 32 GW el 4 Wärmenetze mit Tiefen-Geothermie 26

27 Storage erneuerbare Energien primäre Stromerzeugung fossil-nukleare Energien PV Wind On Wind Off Wasserkraft Atom-KW Steink.-KW Braunk.-KW Öl-KW 147 GW 120 GW 32 GW 5 GW 0 GW 7 GW 3 GW 0 GW Slide courtesy Hans-Martin Henning Stationary batteries 103 Brennstoffe 394 Erdgas Elektrolyse 0 33 GWel Biomasse Total 24 GWh (e.g. 8 Mio 82 6 H2-Speicher Treibstoff Verkehr units with 3 kwh each) Sabatier 0 Methan-Sp. 0.0 GWgas Batterien 4 9 Pump-Sp-KW 7 24 GWh 60 GWh 0 Gasturbine 1 GW Strombedarf gesamt (ohne Strom für Wärme und MIV) ungenutzter Strom (Abregelung) KWK-BHKW GWel Solarthermie 6 3 W-Speicher 15 W-Speicher 7 GWth 27 GWh Verkehr (ohne 173 GWh 5 Schienenverkehr/Strom) 8 WP zentral Wasserstoff-basierter Verkehr 7 GWth Gas-WP Gebäude 82 Traktion Gebäude 15 GWth 41 Electrolysers H2-Bedarf 82with total 59 Batterie-basierter Verkehr Solarthermie 13 Einzelgebäude mit Gas-Wärmepumpe Wärmenetze mit capacity GWth Strombedarf of GW el BHKW-KWK 4 Brennstoff-basierter Verkehr (needed Brennstoffe for mobility) 220 el. WP Sole W-Speicher Traktion gesamt GWth 103 GWh % Wert % Mini-BHKW 23 4 W-Speicher 6 GWel 46 GWh Solarthermie 8 45 Gebäude Brennstoff-basierte Prozesse in 4 9 GWth 60 Industrie und Gewerbe gesamt 445 Solarthermie 3 22 Gebäude Einzelgebäude mit Sole-Wärmepumpe 420 Solarthermie 25 4 GWth 26 Brennstoffe 420 Einzelgebäude mit Mini-BHKW 4 6 Wärmebedarf gesamt 388 el. WP Luft W-Speicher Solarthermie district 12 6 W-Speicher heating Raumheizungsystems Warmwasser ungenutzt 19 GWth 87 GWh 14 GWth 56 GWh Total 350 GWh (e.g. 150 Solarthermie 7 39 Gebäude 73 Gaskessel Gebäude 0.6 Geothermie 6 Gebäude 8 GWth GWth 86 2 GWth 6 Einzelgebäude mit Luft-Wärmepumpe GuD-KW 3 GW Heat buffers 14 in buildings Total 320 GWh (e.g. 7 Mio units with 800 Litres each) 0 3 Einzelgebäude mit Gaskessel KWK-GuD 27 Pumped storage 35 GWel 20 W-Speicher 173 GWh 7 WP zentral power plants 7 GWth 40 Gebäude units Solarthermie 13 with a 20 GWth Wärmenetze mit GuD-KWK total of 60 GWh Large scale heat storage in units with m³ each) Wärmenetze mit Tiefen-Geothermie

28 Investments vs. saved fuel cost in bill. p.a. Fuel price increase 2 % cumulatively avoided fuel cost 1072 bill. 1 % 851 bill. 0 % 679 bill. cumulative investments 515 bill. Slide courtesy Hans-Martin Henning

29 RE-Power Generation in Grids Support for Energy Sector in Chile Ressources Data base Power plants Transmission capacities Demand profiles Technology models of Renewable Energies Optimizer Tool RE Technology Mix (Invest & Operation) Site evaluation: Demand vs. resource Technology-Mix Wind, PV, CSP, Gasturbines,.. Operation Strategies power plants 29

30 Solar Technologies for the Transformation of our Energy System The global energy transformation is the challenge of our generation, it will be the first step of the needed transformation to sustainability. A near-100% renewable energy system that is safe, cost-effective and sustainable is possible, at similar cost as today s energy supply. Solar technologies will be the key pillar of our future energy system This includes solar thermal systems, solar photovoltaics, solar water desalination, and solar fuels for mobility We are just at the beginning of this development, there are great economic opportunities ahead for countries and companies devoted to these technologies Fraunhofer ISE is proud to support solar developments in Chile with the new Center for Solar Energy Technologies CSET, to be inaugurated tomorrow, Mai 28, 2015! 30

31 Thank you for your Attention! Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE Eicke R. Weber, Hans-Martin Henning and ISE coworkers 31