AMERIKANISCHE VERSICHERUNGEN

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1 AMERIKANISCHE VERSICHERUNGEN Theorie & Empirie 1 1

2 MARKT WSJ BUSINESS NOVEMBER 17, 2010 Variable Annuities' Giants Grow By LESLIE SCISM and ERIK HOLM The top four sellers of variable annuities accounted for 48% of all sales in the first nine months of 2010, a substantial increase in U.S. market share as insurers retool their products following losses during the financial crisis. Total sales of the products, which often guarantee retirement income, rose 8% to $102.8 billion through Sept. 30 from a year earlier. The four market leaders Prudential Financial Inc.; MetLife Inc. (MET); Jackson National Life, a unit of Prudential PLC of the U.K.; and TIAA- CREF sold $49.56 billion, according to data released Tuesday by Limra International, an industry-funded research firm. Their share of the variable-annuity market is far more than the 36% share the top four insurers held at the end of Three of the four new leaders have boosted their sales even though sales overall are still lower than in 2008, when the market leaders were TIAA-CREF, MetLife, ING Groep NV and AXA SA. The consolidation at the top comes as life insurers continue to redesign their retirement-income offerings, trying to find versions that are profitable and yet also appeal to the financial advisers and stockbrokers who typically sell them to consumers. 2 2

3 MARKT Variable annuities are a tax-advantaged form of investing in mutual funds. For an additional fee at many insurers, investors can buy downside protection: If the funds perform poorly, the investor can receive lifetime payments of a guaranteed-minimum amount. Before the market slide, the life-insurance industry was in an arms race of ever-more-generous guarantees for their variable annuities, but the promises of lifetime income payments proved a strain on insurers' finances amid the turmoil. Two big variable-annuity sellers Hartford Financial Services Group Inc. and Lincoln National Corp. accepted money, since repaid, from the government's Troubled Asset Relief Program as they dealt with the fallout. ING, meanwhile, took a bailout from the Dutch government and is being forced to spin off its insurance operations. Now variable annuities are less-generous and cost more. Annual expenses now often hit 3.5% of the investor's account value, up from about 3% before the crisis. Many insurers require buyers to hold at least 30% of their money in bond funds; before the crisis, some insurers allowed investors to choose from a wide menu of often-risky stock funds, including emerging markets. While Prudential and MetLife tweaked their offerings, their products are less changed than those of many rivals, financial advisers say. The two insurers say their products, both before and after the crisis, have incorporated strong financial-hedging elements that protect their shareholders in the event of another steep market slide. "We've obviously seen a lot of competitive tumult in the industry, a lot of changes," said Steve Pelletier, the president of Prudential Financial's annuity business. That has resulted in "some very unusual concentration at the top of the industry." Prudential is in the No. 1 spot through the third quarter, with $15.56 billion of variable-annuity sales, according to Limra. MetLife expanded its reach in part by teaming in late 2009 with Fidelity Investments for the Boston fund giant to sell a MetLife variable annuity with a guaranteed-income feature, with consumers' money invested in a Fidelity asset-allocation fund. MetLife also has expanded annuity sales through banks. 3 3

4 MARKT WSJ.com TECHNOLOGY NOVEMBER 18, 2010 Insurers Test Data Profiles to Identify Risky Clients By LESLIE SCISM And MARK MAREMONT Life insurers are testing an intensely personal new use for the vast dossiers of data being amassed about Americans: predicting people's longevity. Insurers have long used blood and urine tests to assess people's health a costly process. Today, however, data-gathering companies have such extensive files on most U.S. consumers online shopping details, catalog purchases, magazine subscriptions, leisure activities and information from social-networking sites that some insurers are exploring whether data can reveal nearly as much about a person as a lab analysis of their bodily fluids. In one of the biggest tests, the U.S. arm of British insurer Aviva PLC looked at 60,000 recent insurance applicants. It found that a new, "predictive modeling" system, based partly on consumer-marketing data, was "persuasive" in its ability to mimic traditional techniques. This data increasingly is gathered online, often with consumers only vaguely aware that separate bits of information about them are being collected and collated in ways that can be surprisingly revealing. The growing trade in personal information is the subject of a Wall Street Journal investigation into online privacy. A key part of the Aviva test, run by Deloitte Consulting LLP, was estimating a person's risk for illnesses such as high blood pressure and depression. Deloitte's models assume that many diseases relate to lifestyle factors such as exercise habits and fast-food diets. This kind of analysis, proponents argue, could lower insurance costs and eliminate an off-putting aspect of the insurance sale for some people. "Requiring every customer to provide additional, and often unnecessary, information" such as blood or urine samples, "simply makes the process less efficient and less customer-friendly," says John Currier, chief actuary for Aviva USA. Other insurers exploring similar technology include American International Group Inc. and Prudential Financial Inc., executives for those firms confirm. Deloitte, a big backer of the concept, has pitched it in recent months to numerous insurers. The research heralds a remarkable expansion of the use of consumermarketing data, which is traditionally used for advertising purposes. 4 4

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6 MARKT The industry is grappling with how to get policies into the hands of middle-class families more cost-effectively. Sales of life policies to individuals are down 45% since the mid-1980s. Deloitte says insurers could save $125 per applicant by eliminating many conventional medical requirements. Under Deloitte's predictive model, the cost to achieve similar results would be $5, Deloitte says. The total underwriting costs for a policy range from $250 to $1,000, insurers say. Making the approach feasible is a trove of new information being assembled by giant data-collection firms. These companies sort details of online and offline purchases to help categorize people as runners or hikers, dieters or couch potatoes. They scoop up public records such as hunting permits, boat registrations and property transfers. They run surveys designed to coax people to describe their lifestyles and health conditions. Increasingly, some gather online information, including from social-networking sites. Acxiom Corp., one of the biggest data firms, says it acquires a limited amount of "public" information from social-networking sites, helping "our clients to identify active social-media users, their favorite networks, how socially active they are versus the norm, and on what kind of fan pages they participate." For insurers and data-sellers alike, the new techniques could open up a regulatory can of worms. The information sold by marketing-database firms is lightly regulated. But using it in the life-insurance application process would "raise questions" about whether the data would be subject to the federal Fair Credit Reporting Act, says Rebecca Kuehn of the Federal Trade Commission's division of privacy and identity protection. The law's provisions kick in when "adverse action" is taken against a person, such as a decision to deny insurance or increase rates. The law requires that people be notified of any adverse action and be allowed to dispute the accuracy or completeness of data, according to the FTC. Deloitte and the life insurers stress the databases wouldn't be used to make final decisions about applicants. Rather, the process would simply speed up applications from people who look like good risks. Other people would go through the traditional assessment process. The use of the data also may require passing muster with insurance regulators. Regulators in Connecticut, New Jersey and New York, all home to major U.S. life insurers, say they haven't been briefed. 6 6

7 MARKT They say their concerns would include ensuring that the approach doesn't unfairly discriminate. "An insurer could contend that a subscription to 'Hang Gliding Monthly' is predictive of highly dangerous behavior, but I'm not buying that theory: The consumer may be getting the magazine for the pictures," says Thomas Considine, New Jersey's commissioner of banking and insurance. AIG is in the early stages of analysis "to figure out what is meaningful and what is not" in the data, says Bob Beuerlein, chief actuary for its SunAmerica Financial unit. The tests are being conducted by an in-house "think tank" whose mission, he says, is "to see where we're going in the future." A Prudential spokesman says the insurer "is looking at" the potential of marketing data, declining to discuss details. Some insurers are taking a wait-and-see approach. Deloitte's "methodology is sound," says Mike Belko, chief underwriter at USAA Life Insurance Co., but for now, "it's too soon to say how much reliance we would put on the information." The largest marketing-database companies in the U.S. include Acxiom, Alliance Data Systems Corp., Experian PLC, and Infogroup. Each says it has detailed information on more than 100 million U.S. households, though contents of their databases vary as do their rules related to data use. There are myriad sources of personal data. Acxiom recently told investors it takes in three billion pieces of information daily as businesses seek to "monetize" information about their customers. Some retailers share information about purchases made by people, including item description, price and the person's name. Increasingly, information comes from people's online behavior. Acxiom says it buys data from online publishers about what kinds of articles a subscriber reads financial or sports, for example and can find out if somebody's a gourmet-food lover from their online purchases. Online marketers often tap data sources like these to target ads at Web users. "Personally identifiable data from the online world is merged with personally identifiable information from the offline world, every day," says Jennifer Barrett, Acxiom's head of global privacy and public policy. She also says that, while Acxiom does store personally identifiable information, it doesn't store or merge anonymous online-tracking data, such as Web-browsing records. Acxiom says it wouldn't let insurers use its data to help assess applicants, for fear of triggering the stiffer federal credit-reporting regulations. Infogroup says it isn't supplying information to insurers for this use. Experian said its marketing data may only be used for marketing purposes. 7 7

8 MARKT Units of News Corp., including The Wall Street Journal, supply information to marketing-database firms and buy information from them. "We have strict precautions around confidentiality," a spokeswoman said. This isn't the first use of database mining in insurance. About 20 years ago, data pros found that some factors in people's credit histories have a strong correlation to claims on car and home-insurance policies. In other words: The better your credit, the less likely you'll file a claim. Today, most car and home insurers use this phenomenon to price their policies. For this purpose, property-casualty insurers look at people's credit reports, as opposed to the consumer-marketing databases. Life insurers haven't changed their general underwriting approach for decades, relying heavily on medical screening. Deloitte's effort to promote predictive modeling to life insurers gained steam in recent months, boosted partly by the Aviva research. Deloitte detailed the test in May at a seminar hosted by the Society of Actuaries, a professional group. At the seminar, a consultant helped explain Deloitte's concept by discussing imaginary 40-year-old insurance buyers, "Beth" and "Sarah." walks for exercise, watches a lot of television, buys weight-loss equipment and has "foreclosure/bankruptcy indicators," according to slides used in the presentation. "Sarah," on the other hand, commutes just a mile to work, runs, bikes, plays tennis and does aerobics. She eats healthy food, watches little TV and travels abroad. She is an "urban single" with a premium bank card and "good financial indicators." Deloitte's approach, the consultant said, indicates Sarah appears to fall into a healthier risk category. Beth seems to be a candidate for a group with worse-than-average predicted mortality. The top five reasons: "Long commute. Poor financial indicators. Purchases tied to obesity indicators. Lack of exercise. High television consumption indicators." Another consultant detailed the Aviva test to the seminar attendees. Deloitte didn't identify the insurer; Aviva confirmed its role to the Journal. The consumer-marketing data for the test came from Equifax Inc.'s marketing-services unit, since bought by Alliance Data Systems. An Alliance spokeswoman says the company was unaware of the insurance-related test, which was done before it bought the former Equifax subsidiary. Alliance "does not provide its marketing data for such purposes," she says. Using readily available data, the consultant said, an insurer could learn that Beth commutes some 45 miles to work, frequently buys fast food, 8 8

9 MARKT The goal of Aviva's test: With 60,000 actual insurance applicants, figure out how to use the marketing databases and other information to reach the same underwriting conclusions that Aviva reached using traditional methods such as blood work. The 60,000 people were applicants Aviva had already judged. Such predictive models wouldn't necessarily look for indicators of all diseases, such as AIDS, because the insurer would likely learn about some conditions from the answers on an application. Rather, insurers say a model would tend to look for potential risks such as, for instance, diabetes (from, say, a poor diet). Aviva declined to discuss the process in detail, but Mr. Currier says the insurer found that the model consistently yielded results that "closely aligned with those of purely traditional underwriting decisions." Deloitte isn't the only firm pushing data-mining for insurers. Celent, an insurance consulting arm of Marsh & McLennan Cos., recently published a study suggesting insurers could use socialnetworking data to help price policies and aid in fraud detection. A life insurer might want to scrutinize an applicant who reports no family history of cancer, but indicates online an affinity with a cancer-research group, says Mike Fitzgerald, a Celent senior analyst. "Whether people actually realize it or not, they are significantly increasing their personal transparency," he says. "It's all public, and it's electronically mineable." The insurer says pilot projects with marketing data are continuing in its effort to improve clients' buying experience. Deloitte acknowledges the potentially controversial nature of its work. "No matter what their predictive powers may be, any variable that is deemed to create a legal or public-relations risk, or is counter to the company's 'values,' should be excluded from the model," its consultants wrote in an April paper. 9 9

10 MARKT WSJ.com BUSINESS DECEMBER 21, 2010 Odds Skew Against Investors in Bets on Strangers' Lives By MARK MAREMONT And LESLIE SCISM In the summer of 2005, a firm called Life Partners Holdings Inc. said Marvin Aslett, an Idaho rancher 79 years old, had two to four years to live. It didn't make this estimate on his behalf but for its customers. The company arranges to buy life-insurance policies from people like Mr. Aslett and sells fractional interests to investors, who collect the death benefits when the insured people die. The investors in a $2 million policy on Mr. Aslett's life would have made a tidy return had he died as projected. But more than five years later, the rancher, now 84, says he runs on a treadmill, lifts weights and chops wood, adding that all of his grandparents lived well into their 90s. "I'm healthy as a horse," he says. "There's going to be a lot of disappointed investors." Charlie Litchfield for The Wall Street Journal Marvin Aslett, 84, has outlived a longevity estimate given to investors in his life insurance by Life Partners

11 MARKT Life Partners, a fast-growing company in Waco, Texas, has made large fees from its life-insurance transactions while often significantly underestimating the life expectancies of people whose policies its customers invest in, a Wall Street Journal investigation found. Life expectancies are a key factor in the business of investing in strangers' life insurance. If estimates are too low, investors face a double whammy: Their policy payout is delayed, and they must keep paying premiums as the person lives on. At Life Partners, according to the Journal investigation, the result is that 10% or 15% yearly returns promoted to investors may prove elusive for many. Attractive projected returns for clients are part of the company's formula for success. Life Partners topped Fortune magazine's 2009 list of fastest-growing small companies in the U.S. In its fiscal year ended Feb. 28, it earned $29.4 million on $113 million of revenue, for a rich profit margin. Life Partners' filings with the Texas Department of Insurance, obtained by the Journal under an open-records request, show that in policies old enough to provide a measure, the insured people usually haven't died within the life expectancy Life Partners gave its clients, and often were still living beyond double or triple their projected span. Life Partners Inc. Life Partners CEO Brian Pardo

12 MARKT In 2002, for instance, Life Partners brokered investments in 297 life policies. Actuaries say if life-expectancy calculations on a group of people are well done, half should die by their projected dates. But in 95% of these policies, the insured was still alive at the end of the life expectancy the company supplied to investors. Policies brokered in 2003 and 2004 show similar patterns. Brian Pardo, Life Partners' founder and chief executive, acknowledged that many of Life Partners' life-expectancy estimates "are probably wrong." It gets them from a doctor in Reno, Nev., who has testified for a court case that he never checks the accuracy of his prior predictions. But Mr. Pardo said Life Partners prices policies to investors at a steep-enough discount to their face value to cushion the effect of any flawed estimate. Clients are warned the insured may not die within the time frame, he said, adding that even if an elderly insured lived 12 years, an investor would "still make as much as they would in a bank deposit." He described the case of Mr. Aslett, the Idaho rancher, as "a good example of how the discounted purchase price of the policy counterbalances the risk of longer-than-estimated life," saying investors would still receive a respectable single-digit return if he lived to be

13 MARKT The Journal also was able to review about 20 instances where specific individuals' longevity had been projected both by Life Partners and by independent firms that specialize in making such estimates. The independent firms' estimates were greater, generally by 50% to 100%. In September 2008, for example, Life Partners sold its clients a $10.8 million policy on the life of a 78-year-old New York man, telling them he had a life expectancy of three to five years. Two independent firms earlier that year separately projected the man had about 11 years to live. Mr. Pardo denied that Life Partners systematically attaches lower life expectancies than independent firms' estimates. He said the Journal's sample was too small and the firm has "numerous examples where our [life expectancy] is longer," some involving policies Life Partners didn't acquire for its clients. Since its founding 19 years ago, Life Partners has sold its clients rights to the proceeds of 6,400 life-insurance policies with a total face value of $2.8 billion. Charlie Litchfield for The Wall Street Journal Mr. Aslett stirs his hot chocolate

14 Clients pay a sum that covers the purchase price and Life Partners' fees, and put money in escrow to cover premiums during the insured's life expectancy. If the insured lives longer, investors owe more premiums. Sean Turnbow, a Texas client, learned earlier this year he had to pay additional premiums on two fractional policies he bought in "It's started to make me nervous," he said. "I was under the impression that their physicians made very conservative estimates with life expectancies, and that doesn't appear to be the case at the moment." Jacqueline Keller of Colorado Springs, Colo., said she is still paying premiums on pieces of two policies she bought in 1996 on AIDS patients. She said she had invested, in part, thinking this would help the original owners in their final months, but now, "every time I get a bill in the mail, I get ticked off." Many find it offensive that people can invest in strangers' life insurance. "That you've got people out there betting hoping you will die soon is just a distasteful operation," says Joseph Belth, a professor emeritus of insurance at Indiana University. But the Supreme Court ruled in 1911 that life insurance was property people could sell. A Securities and Exchange Commission task force in July suggested asking Congress to make such transactions subject to federal securities law, noting that "the SEC has brought a number of successful actions alleging fraud in connection with life-settlement securities." It said misrepresentation of life expectancies was an alleged problem in many cases. When Life Partners acquires policies, there's a market price that is based partly on life expectancies that sellers' agents or potential buyers obtain from the independent life-expectancy-calculation firms. Life Partners says it sometimes sees these predictions. In brokering these policies to its clients, however, it attaches a different life expectancy, the one from its Reno doctor. In general, the lower the life expectancy on a policy, the more a firm like Life Partners can charge investors. Life Partners in October said its policies are "priced to target a compounded return of 12-14% at life expectancy." In late 2005, a policy on the life of an 80- year-old California woman was available for purchase. Life Partners acquired the $1 million policy on behalf of its clients, paying $300,000, according to company filings in Texas. It brokered the policy to the clients the same day for more than $492,000 plus five years of future premiums, an additional $58,000. This spread is lower than typical. Mr. Pardo agreed with Journal estimates that on average, Life Partners sells a policy for about 2.4 times what the owner is paid, much of which goes to its own fees. In its most recent fiscal year, the firm reported receiving an average of $308,000 in fees from 201 policies sold. Around the time this woman's policy was for sale, documents reviewed by the Journal show, two life-expectancy firms, AVS Underwriting and Fasano Associates, projected she had about 10 ½ years to live. Life Partners told its investors she had three to five. The woman, who at 85 has just exceeded Life Partners' longevity estimate, said in an interview she has "aches and pains" but is "reasonably healthy." Mr. Pardo said a fiveyear expectancy on an 80-year-old was "not unreasonable," and the policy was priced so "even if the insured lived 11 years, the compounded return would be a little under 5%." Life Partners doesn't tell clients about any longevity predictions besides its own

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16 MARKT Mr. Pardo, 68, is a college dropout who became a decorated Vietnam War helicopter gunship pilot. He started a solar-heating business, American Solar King, that became a stock-market favorite in the early 1980s. The renamed ASK Corp. later filed for bankruptcy, and in 1989 the SEC accused it and Mr. Pardo of overstating revenue and profits. He settled in 1991 without admitting or denying wrongdoing. The same year, he moved into the nascent life-settlement industry by founding Life Partners. Mr. Pardo found himself in the SEC's sights again in 1994, when it charged his new firm with selling unregistered securities. Life Partners won a federal-court ruling that U.S. securities law didn't cover its products. Since becoming wealthy he holds about half of Life Partners' stock and owns a Lear jet Mr. Pardo has taken on a variety of charitable causes, including the support of a female boxer from Austin who runs a gym that aids poor children. Life Partners markets investments via a multi-tiered network of agents. Potential investors, mostly individuals, must attest they are financially sophisticated, and the minimum investment is $50,000 across multiple policies, Mr. Pardo said. They receive a "confidential case history" that includes the insured's last name, a brief medical history and the life-expectancy estimate. Commissions to sales agents, called licensees, are about 12% of the amount investors put in. A news release from one licensee in 2008 said: "15%+ Return on Investment Still Available." Another's website includes a 2007 brochure citing an "average annualized ROI on actual payouts of 15.83%." Such figures "exaggerate the return" because they include only matured policies, wrote Prof. Belth of Indiana in an insurance newsletter he publishes. Mr. Pardo said Life Partners didn't approve those pitches. Still, he said, the 15% figure is "factual," and is useful to clients because it signals that returns on overall portfolios will be bolstered by early maturities. He said he is comfortable talking with clients about a portfolio return in the high single or low double digits. Life Partners says its life-expectancy estimates have long been provided by Donald T. Cassidy, a cancer specialist in Reno. The physician described his work for the firm in a deposition two years ago

17 Colorado securities regulators had charged in state court that Life Partners sold unregistered securities and didn't disclose "the rate in which [the insured] outlived their life expectancies." The company settled the case, agreeing to repurchase policies from certain state residents. In his deposition in the case, Dr. Cassidy said Life Partners paid him a monthly retainer of $15,000, plus $500 for every policy bought by Life Partners clients. That translates to $270,000 annual pay for part-time work that has brought him more than $1.3 million since 2002, Life Partners confirmed. Dr. Cassidy, who declined to be interviewed, testified that he reviewed case histories three days a week for Life Partners and it sent him 100 to 200 cases weekly. That translates to 33 to 66 per working day. At life-expectancy firm Fasano Associates, doctors review an average of six a day, said Michael Fasano, president. "These are complex medical histories of older people," he said. Mr. Pardo said Dr. Cassidy is under no time pressure. Though Dr. Cassidy has said he doesn't check the accuracy of his predictions, his track record can be pieced together from the filings in Texas. In 2002, Life Partners put a life expectancy of two years or less on the insured person in a third of the 297 policies it sold, and four years or less on all but a handful. Most were listed as HIVpositive. If the projections were accurate, almost all of those policies should have "matured," with the insured dead, by the end of 2009, but instead the insured had outlived the estimate in 283 of the 297 policies. A total of 262 were still alive, of whom 64% had lived at least twice the life expectancy Life Partners gave them, and 34% at least triple. In 2003, of 299 policies the firm brokered, the insured as of a year ago had lived past the Life Partners life expectancy in 279 instances. "Dr. Cassidy's projections are largely far less than accurate," Mr. Pardo agreed in one . He later contradicted that, saying the Journal had "misinterpreted" the statement as criticism of the oncologist's "superior" projections. In the now-settled action, Colorado regulators accused Life Partners of not disclosing another risk: If any investors in a policy didn't pay additional premiums when asked, the policy could be cancelled. Life Partners says that isn't a risk because it either finds other buyers of the fractional interest or steps in and pays the premium itself. It says it has lent clients $6.9 million for such payments over 3 ½ years. Tom McGinty contributed to this article

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26 MARKT WSJ.com LAW OCTOBER 5, 2010 Judge Allows 'Death Bet' Case AIG Is Accused Over Insurance on Older People; Insurer Says It Was Defrauded By LESLIE SCISM And MARK MAREMONT A federal judge allowed the civil-lawsuit claims of an Indiana family to go forward against American International Group Inc., in which the family alleges the insurer was complicit in a "scheme" to let investors buy life insurance on older people as speculative bets. Rick Tisdale The claims got the go-ahead last week as the judge ruled on multiple motions in the dispute in U.S. District Court in Indianapolis over a $15 million policy on Germaine "Suzy" Tomlinson, who drowned, fully clothed, in her bathtub in The case is one of the highest profile of several hundred pending nationally as families, insurers and investors sort out the legal wreckage from a now-collapsed boom in the secondary market for life policies. In numerous lawsuits involving what insurance companies call "stranger-originated life insurance" agents and investors contend the insurers' own managers welcomed the business to boost their compensation, and that they should have to honor the policies. Germaine 'Suzy' Tomlinson and JB Carlson at Blu Martini bar in Indianapolis on Sept. 27, 2008, the last night she was seen alive

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