German Government s Scenario to Supply 80% of Power - Consumption by Renewable Energy in 2050 Dr. Kurt Rohrig Fraunhofer Institut für Windenergie

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1 German Government s Scenario to Supply 8% of Power - Consumption by Renewable Energy in 25 Dr. Kurt Rohrig Fraunhofer Institut für Windenergie Systemanalyse und Technikbewertung und Energiesystemtechnik

2 Fraunhofer IWES: Institute Profile Research spectrum: Wind energy from material development to grid optimization Wind energy Energy system technology for all renewables Foundation: 29 Personal: approx. 5 Electricity grids Photovoltaics Hydro power Bio energy Marine energies advancing wind energy and energy system technology

3 Global Situation and Future Trends Weltbevölkerung [Milliarden] 13 Welt energiebedarf [ 1 kwh ] Global Growth of Population, Energy Demand, CO2 -Concentration 2 Global Energy Demand CO2 -Concentration in the Atmosphere Global Population March 212: 394 ppm CO 2 -Konzentrat ion [ppm]

4 Challenge of Climate Protection Business-as-usual Climate Protection Necessary Reductions Source: PIK 27

5 Transformation of Electricity Sector

6 Gross Electricity Generation from RES and Consumption in Germany up to 25

7 Electricity generation by technology in Scenario 211 A 5 - Szenario 211 A - 49 Stromerzeugung erneuerbare Energien, TWh/a W asser Fotovoltaik 13 W ind O nshore G eothermie W ind Offshore Europäischer Verbund 235 Biomasse, biog. Abfälle SZEN11/ ST R-23;

8 Definition of Scenarios 211 / Scenario analyses Scenario 211 A: meeting all objectives of the energy concept of the federal government, including 25% reduction of energy consumption (based on end-use energy, 28) ; CO2 reduction by 25: 8%; share of E-mobility to car traffic by 25: 5%; breakthrough of hydrogen vehicles and related infrastructure development. Scenario 211 B: as Scenario A, but no breakthrough of hydrogen in transport, but production and use of synthetic methane in the transport sector and accordingly construction of new capacity to produce the required additional renewable electricity. Scenario 211 C: as Scenario A, but no breakthrough of hydrogen in transport, but full coverage of the car transport services by electric drives (full electric vehicles and serial hybrids). Outlook: Scenario 211 THG95: reaching the upper limit of the target range for the reduction of greenhouse gases in the energy concept (95%) by 26.? Additional use of electricity and hydrogen as chemical energy storage devices for reconversion and required for full supply of renewable heat and transport sectors. 211 Scenario A ': as Scenario A, only a lower power consumption reduction of around 15% by 25 (final energy consumption, based on 28)

9 Bandwidth of growth of RES electricity production in Scenarios Full supply by RES in Stromerzeugung erneuerbare Energien, TWh/a Szen A Szen A' Szen B Szen C Szen THG95 17% 41% all Sectors (RES electricity as main primary energy ) SZEN11/ STR-VGL;

10 IWES-Simulation Tool SimEE

11 Results: Grid development scenario 211 A 25 HVDC-transport capacity 23 in Germany: 29 GW HVDC-transport capacity in Germany: 9 GW Germany North Dk-W BeNeLux Iberia Alps France Italy East UK&IE North Africa Deutschland Dänemark Nord, Finnland, Norwegen, Schweden Dänemark West Belgien, Luxemburg, Niederlande Portugal, Spanien Schweiz, Österreich, Liechtenstein Frankreich Italien Polen, Tschechische Republik, Slowakei Großbritannien, Irland Algerien, Marokko, Tunesien

12 9 8 Effects of RES production Scenario A 22 Geothermie Holz-/Müll-HKW Wasserkraft Onshore-Wind Offshore-Wind Photovoltaik Last Residuallast 7 6 Leistung [GW] Jan Feb Mar Apr Mai Jun Jul Aug Sep 9Okt Nov Dez 1 Geothermie Holz-/Müll-HKW Wasserkraft Onshore-Wind Offshore-Wind Photovoltaik Last Import/Export Residuallast - Export Monat Export 8 Import Leistung [GW] 4 2 Leistung [GW] Volllaststunden [h] -1 25/9 25/9 26/9 27/9 28/9 29/9 3/9 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 Tag/Monat

13 12 1 Effects of RES production Scenario A 25 Geothermie Holz-/Müll-HKW Wasserkraft Onshore-Wind Offshore-Wind Photovoltaik Last Residuallast 8 Leistung [GW] Jan Feb Mar Apr Mai Jun Jul Aug Sep Okt Nov Dez Residuallast - Export Export Import Monat 1 Geothermie Holz-/Müll-HKW Wasserkraft Onshore-Wind Offshore-Wind Photovoltaik Last Import/Export 9 8 Leistung [GW] Leistung [GW] Volllaststunden [h] /9 25/9 26/9 27/9 28/9 29/9 3/9 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 Tag/Monat

14 Demand side management Scenario A residuale Last DSM-Haushalt Klimatisierung E-Kfz Wärmepumpen residuale Last DSM-Haushalt Klimatisierung E-Kfz Wärmepumpen Leistung [GW] 2-2 Leistung [GW] /9 25/9 26/9 27/9 28/9 29/9 3/9 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 Tag/Monat Volllaststunden [h]

15 Demand side management Scenario C residuale Last DSM-Haushalt Klimatisierung E-Kfz Wärmepumpen residuale Last DSM-Haushalt Klimatisierung E-Kfz Wärmepumpen Leistung [GW] 2-2 Leistung [GW] /9 25/9 26/9 27/9 28/9 29/9 3/9 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 Tag/Monat Volllaststunden [h]

16 Frequency Distribution of Power Plants 22 Häufigkeitsdichte.1 Kernkraft (n = 6) Braunkohle (n = 22) Steinkohle (n = 4) Erdgas GuD (n = 34) Erdgas GT (n = 39) PSWTurb KWK (n = 77) BHKW Biogas Full Volllaststunden Load Hours [h]

17 Frequency Distribution of Power Plants 23 Häufigkeitsdichte.1 Braunkohle (n = 22) Steinkohle (n = 23) Erdgas GuD (n = 27) Erdgas GT (n = 43) PSWTurb KWK (n = 8) BHKW Biogas Full Volllaststunden Load Hours [h]

18 Frequency Distribution of Power Plants 25 Häufigkeitsdichte.1 Braunkohle (n = 3) Steinkohle (n = 4) Erdgas GuD (n = 21) Erdgas GT (n = 41) PSWTurb KWK (n = 43) BHKW Biogas Full Volllaststunden Load Hours [h]

19 Das Regenerative Kombikraftwerk II Kombikraftwerk 1 Demonstration of load coverage (1/1) Only by RES in combination with storage Deutscher Klimaschutzpreis 29 Kombikraftwerk 2 Demonstration of grid stability supported only by RES - frequency -volage -black start

20 Security of supply frequency and voltage control

21 Renewable Model Region Harz Renewable Power Plant Harz Device Control Market Information Generation Controlable Loads Storage

22 North Sea Offshore Grid and Storage Alliance

23 Roadmap Energiewende System Transformation Power Sector Grids Grid Expansion Germany. Grid Expansion Europe Grid Coupling Electricity-Gas Management Flexible Generation Flexible Demand Storage Pump Storage Batteries, CAES Power-to-Gas Research, Development, Demonstration, Monitoring Quelle: IWES, 211

24 Thank You for Your Attention! Fraunhofer-Institut für Windenergie und Energiesystemtechnik Bremerhaven und Kassel advancing wind energy and energy system technology Research Spectrum: Wind Energy from Materials to Grid Operation Energy Systems Technology for RES Kurt Rohrig Deputy Director