Die Bonitätsbewertung deutscher Kommunen durch Fitch Ratings. Guido Bach

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1 Die Bonitätsbewertung deutscher Kommunen durch Fitch Ratings Guido Bach 10 Mai 2016

2 Agenda Fitch s Ratingansatz für lokale und regionale Gebietskörperschaften Wesentliche Kennzahlen bei der Ermittlung der Bonität Verschiedene Kennzahlen deutscher Kommunen im Zeitverlauf Fitch s Blick auf die deutschen Kommunen 1

3 Agenda Fitch s Ratingansatz für lokale und regionale Gebietskörperschaften Wesentliche Kennzahlen bei der Ermittlung der Bonität Verschiedene Kennzahlen deutscher Kommunen im Zeitverlauf Fitch s Blick auf die deutschen Kommunen 2

4 International Public Finance (IPF) Methodology Key Focus Economy Management/ administration Institutional framework Fiscal performance Debt/liquidity 3

5 Major Rating Factors Qualitative Σ Quantitative Institutional Legal framework Organisation Responsibilities Σ Σ Σ On-Balance Revenues Expenditure Debt liquidity Economy Σ Wealth Σ Demographics Σ Employment Σ Σ Off-Balance Ancillary budgets Satellites Controlling policies 4

6 Weight of Criteria Factors Rating Factors German context Economy 20% Management 10% Institutional framework 25% Solid and predictable Institutional Framework supports the credit quality of German Municipalities Wealth levels and economy well above the EU average with large discrepancies among the municipalities Fiscal performance improved with some degree of fiscal autonomy Fiscal performance 20% Debt 25% Relative high debt and growing short term liabilities increased refinancing pressure with large discrepancies among the municipalities Solid management in place Source: Fitch 5

7 Agenda Fitch s Ratingansatz für lokale und regionale Gebietskörperschaften Wesentliche Kennzahlen bei der Ermittlung der Bonität Verschiedene Kennzahlen deutscher Kommunen im Zeitverlauf Fitch s Blick auf die deutschen Kommunen 6

8 International Public Finance (IPF) Methodology Core Ratios Tax revenue/ operating revenue Operating Margin Staff expenditure/ operating expenditure Interest paid/ operating revenue Operating balance/ interest paid Direct debt servicing/ current revenue Direct debt/ current revenue Direct debt/ current balance Direct debt/ GDP 7

9 Agenda Fitch s Ratingansatz für lokale und regionale Gebietskörperschaften Wesentliche Kennzahlen bei der Ermittlung der Bonität Verschiedene Kennzahlen deutscher Kommunen im Zeitverlauf Fitch s Blick auf die deutschen Kommunen 8

10 Kommunen Entwicklung Kennzahlen 1/5 Direct debt and Kassenkredite Direct debt Kassenkredite (EURbn) Q15 Source: Destatis, Fitch 9

11 Kommunen Entwicklung Kennzahlen 2/5 Operating Margin and Surplus Before Debt Variation (%) Operating margin Surplus (deficit) before debt variation Q15 Source: Destatis, Fitch 10

12 Kommunen Entwicklung Kennzahlen 3/5 Operating balance/ interest paid and Current balance/ capital expenditure (X) Operating balance/interest paid (LHS) Current balance/capital expenditure (RHS) (%) Q15 Source: Destatis, Fitch 11

13 Kommunen Entwicklung Kennzahlen 4/5 Direct debt and Direct debt servicing/ current revenue (EURbn) Direct debt (LHS) Direct debt servicing/current revenue (RHS) (%) Q15 Source: Destatis, Fitch 12

14 Kommunen Entwicklung Kennzahlen 5/5 Tax revenue/ operating revenue and Staff expenditure/ operating expenditure (%) Tax revenue/ operating revenue Staff expenditure/ operating expenditure (%) Q15 Source: Destatis, Fitch 13

15 Agenda Fitch s Ratingansatz für lokale und regionale Gebietskörperschaften Wesentliche Kennzahlen bei der Ermittlung der Bonität Verschiedene Kennzahlen deutscher Kommunen im Zeitverlauf Fitch s Blick auf die deutschen Kommunen 14

16 Bonität der Kommunen in Deutschland Solider institutioneller Rahmen Überdurchschnittliche Wirtschaftskraft im internationalen Kontext mit erheblichen Unterschieden auf lokaler Ebene Moderate fiskalische Flexibilität Solide Einnahmenbasis aber hohes Maß an Verantwortlichkeiten Hohe Verschuldung im internationalen Kontext Hoher Grad an kurzfristiger Verschuldung erhöht Refinanzierungsrisiko Zugang zu Liquidität hat sich erschwert und dürfte sich weiter erschweren 15

17 Related Research All relevant Fitch research can be found on our website under the appropriate sector headings International Local and Regional Governments Rating Criteria Outside the United States (18 April 2016) Fitch s Rating Approach for the German Laender (18 August 2015) Institutional Framework for German Subnationals (11 September 2015) Fitch Affirms 7 German Laender at AAA ; Outlooks Stable (6 November 2015) 16

18 Disclaimer Fitch Ratings credit ratings rely on factual information received from issuers and other sources. Fitch Ratings cannot ensure that all such information will be accurate and complete. Further, ratings are inherently forward-looking, embody assumptions and predictions that by their nature cannot be verified as facts, and can be affected by future events or conditions that were not anticipated at the time a rating was issued or affirmed. The information in this presentation is provided as is without any representation or warranty. A Fitch Ratings credit rating is an opinion as to the creditworthiness of a security and does not address the risk of loss due to risks other than credit risk, unless such risk is specifically mentioned. A Fitch Ratings report is not a substitute for information provided to investors by the issuer and its agents in connection with a sale of securities. Ratings may be changed or withdrawn at any time for any reason in the sole discretion of Fitch Ratings. The agency does not provide investment advice of any sort. Ratings are not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. ALL FITCH CREDIT RATINGS ARE SUBJECT TO CERTAIN LIMITATIONS AND DISCLAIMERS. PLEASE READ THESE LIMITATIONS AND DISCLAIMERS AND THE TERMS OF USE OF SUCH RATINGS AT 17

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