500 YEARS AT THE DRESDEN GAUGE. DATA MINING AND RESULTS. Reinhard Pohl

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1 500 YEARS LOOD STAGE RECORDS AT THE DRESDEN GAUGE. DATA MINING AND RESULTS. Reinhard Pohl

2 map: Germany, Czech Republic and Elbe river watershed

3 Elbe, Gauge Pegel Dresden LogNorm Gumbel Pears3 PlotPos LogN_u LogN_o Gumbl_u Gumbl_o QPu QPo Question:??? August 2002: 4580 m³/s at a gauge water level of 940 cm flood 1845 : 5700 m³/s at a gauge water level 877 cm

4 esign water level ) Determination by means of the exceedence probability of a discharge (recurrence period) gauge observation W mnn Q m³/s DWL mnn P R model W mm Q m³/s m/s DWL mnn dditional planned in the new German Standard DIN flood protection works: ) Determination by means of a discharge Q m³/s DWL mnn ) Determination of a certain protection level (e.g. on the basis of HFL (highest flood level) but: degree of protection and residual risik not identifiable, check of the recurrence period afterwards) DWL mnn [ Q m³/s ]

5

6 from: Historische Hochwasser aus dem Erzgebirge (Dresdner Wasserbauliche

7

8 Hydraulic profile and flood levels of 1845 at the Dresden Old Bridge in the historical Elbe river map (Saxon State and University Library Dresden, Kartenforum Sachsen). Right: historic cross section. 4 th International Symposium on Flood Defence: High water level 1845 Gauge datum Water level Elbe Ground Water level l data Reference level Distance

9 th International Symposium on Flood Defence:

10 4th International Symposium on Flood Defence: In Introduction Data sources Chronology Bed morphology Water profiles Stage-discharge ralations Statistics Conclusions

11 In 130 until W W W W W W W W W W from W W W W W W W W W W Introduction Data sources Chronology Bed morphology Water profiles Stage-discharge ralations Statistics Conclusions

12 In Change of channel propertiesp channel straightening, channel shortening, increase of slope natural sediment transport erosion in the upper reach natural sediment transport sedimentation in the lower reach groins, river training walls, reduction of the width erosion, deepening (assumption: river narrowed and deeper at the same flow cross section) Q Q Q Q W W W W development, lining, river training, reduction of the roughness bridge span wider more bridges, floodplain obstructions Q Q Q W W W Introduction Data sources Chronology Bed morphology Water profiles Stage-discharge ralations Statistics Conclusions

13 In Elbe Hist WSP Plan: Plan 05 Elbe 1845 Dresden, Augustusbrücke, Pegel Dresden, km Water profiles Q = 2000 and 5000 m³/s Legend WS PF 10 WS PF 6 Ground Bank Sta 120 n (m) Elevatio Introduction Data sources Chronology Bed morphology Water profiles Stage-discharge ralations Statistics Conclusions

14 4th International Symposium on Flood Defence: In Elbe Hist WSP 1940 Plan: Plan 03 Elbe 1940 Dresden, Augustusbrücke, Pegel Dresden, km Legend Water profiles Q = 2000 und 5000 m³/s m /s WS PF 10 WS PF 6 Ground 125 Bank Sta Elev ation (m) Station (m) Introduction Data sources Chronology Bed morphology Water profiles Stage-discharge ralations Statistics Conclusions

15 In Ele evation (m) Elbe Hist WSP Plan: 1) P02_2006 2) P05_1845 3) P04_1890 4) P01_2002 5) P03_1940 Elbe1 Profiles calculated for Q = 2000 and 5000 m³/s 1845, 1890, 1940, 2002 since 1852 Marien bridge afflux since 1907 less afflux due to new built bridge since 1895 Carola bridge since 1873 Albert bridge Legend WS PF 10 - P05_1845 WS PF 10 - P02_2006 WS PF 10 - P04_1890 WS PF 10 - P01_2002 WS PF 10 - P03_1940 WS PF 6 - P05_1845 WS PF 6 - P01_2002 WS PF 6 - P02_2006 WS PF 6 - P03_1940 WS PF 6 - P04_1890 Ground Main Channel Distance (m) Introduction Data sources Chronology Bed morphology Water profiles Stage-discharge ralations Statistics Conclusions

16 In (m asl) 1845 and 1890 floodways not yet built stage 1890 DHI: > 3885 = 89% 1845 Siglow/Pohl: > 4335 = 76% channel still wider but almost the same depth as nowadays flood protection in Saxony polynom 2006 formula polynom flood protection in S.l 2002 calculated polynom 2002 calculated stage-discharge from 2006 Bartl Bartl Bartl DHI official official official official Siglow/Pohl 1845 Siglow/Pohl Q (m³/s) 6000 comparison of the stage-discharge-relations at the Dresden gauge with dispersion (orange) due to roughness estimations between n = 0.02 to 0.06 s/m 1/3 Introduction Data sources Chronology Bed morphology Water profiles Stage-discharge ralations Statistics Conclusions

17 In only few but extrem floods increasing data density, also smaller floods river training, reduction of river width dam construction in the watershed climate change? Qs (m³/s) Qs Qs new year Floods of the Elbe river in Dresden since 1501 A.D. hollow triangles mark the official peak discharges up to now, filled triangles mark the revised values Introduction Data sources Chronology Bed morphology Water profiles Stage-discharge ralations Statistics Conclusions

18 lood record statistics recurrence periods

19 Linear trends of partial series of annual peak discharges: 30 years (black line) 50 years (orange) 4 th International Symposium on Flood Defence: years Jahr

20 Number of all time maxima (Glick 1978)

21 g für 1845 geschätzt e (historical) stagee relations are correct ion of peak e 845 values necessary 845 : m³/s uently also the asser e periods münn and the 845 münn n objectives will be ünn bis 1935 to change g aus Längsschnitt 1845 gem. ations g 2002 are very time g due to the nd -200 partially 002 ent -500 data sitution e points above the urther research also 002 ivers can be derived g ulations aus Querschnitten on the ünn igital surface Conclusions Elb-km m ü.nn

22 Thank you

23

24

25

26 Elbe, Pegel Dresden LogNorm Gumbel Pears3 PlotPos LogN_u LogN_o Gumbl_u Gumbl_o QPu QPo Frage:??? August 2002: 4580 m³/s bei einem Wasserstand von 940 cm Hochwasser von 1845 : 5700 m³/s bei einem Pegelwasserstand von 877 cm

27

28 Jahr Ereignis, Bau, Fertigstellung, Beginn 2003 Sohle, Vorländer am Königsufer in Dresden vertieft bis 1990 Sohlvertiefung durch Erosion bis zu 60 cm seit 1888 (Flussgeschichte ) ca Abschieben des Königsufers gegenüber der Brühlschen Terrasse, ursprüngliche Querprofile wieder hergestellt (HWSK Elbe) Neubau der Carolabrücke 1967/71 mit 3 Spannbeton-Voutenträgern Gesamtlänge 375 m 1949 Wiederaufbau der Augustusbrücke wie Augustusbrücke 1945 gesprengt ab 1945 Vorlandverfüllung mit Trümmern, z.b. Käthe-Kollwitz-Ufer in Dresden (HWSK Elbe) 1936 Bau der Autobahnbrücke A Bau der Flügelwegbrücke bis 1929 Deichverlegung und -verlängerung in Stetzsch/Gohlis abgeschlossen. ([23] HWSK Elbe) 1927 Flutrinne Kaditz auf 119 m verbreitert, Böcklinstraße abgesenkt (HWSK Elbe) 1920 Bau der Flutrinne Dresden-Kaditz 40 m breit (HWSK Elbe) 1913 Pillnitzer Insel bergwärts um 120 und talwärts um 60 m verlängert bessere Umströmung ( [21] HWSK) ab 1911 Reichsgesetz zur Niedrigwasserregulierung mit Mindestwassertiefe von 1,10 m oberhalb der Saalemündung: Längswerke, Vorlandverfüllung, Entfernung von Hindernissen (Baumstämme, Felsen, Sandbänke) aus der Fahrrinne [BFG 1994] (Flussgeschichte) 1910 Neubau der Augustusbrücke fertig, Während der Bauzeit 1907/10 stromabwärts hölzerne Behelfsbrücke Bau der Flutrinne Ostragehege (HWSK Elbe) 1901 Bau der Eisenbahnbrücke (Marienbrücke) ca Deichbau in Dresden-Kaditz (HWSK Elbe) ab 1900 Vergleichmäßigung des Gefälles von km (Flussgeschichte) Ca Bau der Carolabrücke 1895 Bau der Loschwitz-Blasewitzer Elbbrücke (Blaues Wunder) 1893 Weißeritzlauf und -mündung nach Westen verlegt bis bis 1910 Mittelwasserbreite durch Ausbau seit Beginn des 19. Jh. etwa halbiert (Rommel 2000, Flussgeschichte) koordinierte Ausbauarbeiten, z. B.: Durchstiche, Bau von Buhnen und Deckwerken zur Einschränkung des Mittelwasserbettes, Uferbefestigung an allen Abbruchstellen, Verbau von Kolken, Räumung des Stromes von Baumstämmen, Felsen und Sandbänken (Kindt 1990, Metschies 1939, Flussgeschichte) 1873 Bau der Albertbrücke 1869 Entfernung der Inseln bei Söbrigen im Zuge der Niedrigwasserregulierung von , indem der Elbaltarm mit Baggermassen aus dem Flusslauf verfüllt wurde (HWSK Elbe). ab 1866 Durchgängige Mittelwasserregulierung (HWSK Elbe)

29 4 th International Symposium on Flood Defence: Alte Elbkarte (ca. 1850) im Bereich Pillnitz mit Wassertiefen (Fuß?) und heutige Situation

30 g für 1845 geschätzt asser münn 45 münn NN bis 1935 g aus Längsschnitt 1845 gem. g g aus Querschnitten 4 th International Symposium on Flood Defence: Elb-km m ü.nn

31 n 4th International Symposium on Flood Defence:

32 (m ü.nn) h H = (0,406 0,00036 Q) Q + 147,95 3 H in mü. NN Q in m / s z.zt. verwendete amtliche Pegel-Schlüsselkurve lk aus Wasserspiegellage mit kst = 35 aus Wasserspiegellage mit kst = 25 aus Wasserspiegellage mit kst=30 Q gegliedertes Profil (THM4) Q Mitte als Trapez Q ges Doppeltrapez Pegelkurve Pegelkurve Pegelkurve Pegelkurve Pegelkurve Pegelkurve Pegelkurve Pegelkurve Pegelkurve Pegelkurve Ausgleichsfunktion für kst=35 Messwerte Eigene Messung am

33 Q (m³/s) alt Q (m³/s) neu Q (m³/s) alt Q (m³/s) neu W (m ü.nn neu) W (m ü.nn neu) Linear (W (m ü.nn neu) ) Linear (W (m ü.nn neu) 1800-) Linear (Q (m³/s) neu ) Linear (Q (m³/s) alt ) Linear (Q (m³/s) neu 1800-) Linear (Q (m³/s) alt 1800-)

34 Probabilistische Bemessung Überströmung von Seedeichen mit Hochwasser und Geschiebe Durchströmung eines Flussdeiches

35 T nbhq T nv T nq max 4 4 th International Symposium on Flood Defence: sserstände (h) h eßquerschnitte (A; x; y) asserfläche) rchfluss (Q) f G H I D A E F B K f oder umgekehrt h C Q f T n

36 asserstände (h) + weiche Informationen ließquerschnitte (A; x; y) Wasserfläche) urchfluss (Q) ualitative Bewertung Aus: Historische Hochwasser aus dem Erzgebirge (Dresdner Wasserbauliche Mitteilungen; Heft 28, 2004, ISBN

37 Elbe Hist WSP Plan: Plan 04 Elbe 1890 Dresden, Augustusbrücke, Pegel Dresden, km Wasserspiegellagen Q = 2000 und 5000 m³/s Legend WS PF 10 WS PF 6 Ground Bank Sta Station (m)

38 Elbe Hist WSP Plan: Plan 01 Elbe 2002 Dresden, Augustusbrücke, Pegel Dresden, km Legend Wasserspiegellagen Q = 2000 und 5000 m³/s WS PF 10 WS PF 6 Ground Bank Sta Station (m)

39 Elbe Hist WSP Plan: Plan 02 Elbe 2006 Dresden, Augustusbrücke, Pegel Dresden, km Legend Wasserspiegellagen Q = 2000 und 5000 m³/s WS PF 10 WS PF 6 Ground Bank Sta Station (m)

40 Thank you

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