Einführung in die Volkswirtschaftslehre (No ), HS 11

Transkript

1 Einführung in die Volkswirtschaftslehre (No ), HS 11 Prof. Dr. Rolf Weder (Uni Basel), Teil I Prof. Dr. Aymo Brunetti (Seco), Teil II Dr. Beat Spirig (Uni Basel), Übungen Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät Universität Basel Rolf Weder VWL HS 11 1

2 Programm (1) Quelle: Outline Rolf Weder VWL HS 11 2

3 Programm (2) Prüfungstermin: Montag, 9. Januar 2012, 14:30-16:30 Uhr Quelle: Outline Rolf Weder VWL HS 11 3

4 Einführung: Die Toolbox der Ökonomie, Vorteile der Spezialisierung ( , Kap. 1-3) Rolf Weder Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät Universität Basel Rolf Weder VWL HS 11 4

5 Wirtschaftswissenschaften In contrast to many other social sciences, economics has a set of well worked out and closely related ideas that underlie almost everything done in the field. Economics is not a particular set of questions to be answered but a particular way of answering questions. Doing economics involves a continual balance between unrealistic simplification and unworkable complication. David Friedman (1990), Price Theory. An Intermediate Text, Cincinnati: South Western Publishing Company Rolf Weder VWL HS 11 5

6 Struktur 1. Zehn Prinzipien in den Wirtschaftswissenschaften 2. Wirtschaftswissenschaften als Disziplin ( Thinking Like an Economist ) 3. Die Gewinne durch Handel ( Gains from Trade ) Rolf Weder VWL HS 11 6

7 Struktur 1. Zehn Prinzipien in den Wirtschaftswissenschaften 2. Wirtschaftswissenschaften als Disziplin ( Thinking Like an Economist ) 3. Die Gewinne durch Handel ( Gains from Trade ) Rolf Weder VWL HS 11 7

8 (1) Zehn Prinzipien in den Wirtschaftswissenschaften Economics is the study of how society manages its scarce resources. (M/T, S. 3) - How people make decisions - How people interact - How the economy works as a whole Rolf Weder VWL HS 11 8

9 (1) Zehn Prinzipien in den Wirtschaftswissenschaften How people make decisions 1. People face trade-offs 2. The cost of something is what you give up to get it 3. Rational people think at the margin 4. People respond to incentives How people interact 5. Trade can make everyone better off 6. Markets are usually a good way to organize economic activity 7. Governments can sometimes improve market outcomes How the economy works as a whole 8. A country s standard of living depends on its ability to produce goods and services 9. Prices rise when the government prints too much money 10. Society faces a short-run trade-off between inflation and unemployment Mankiw, Taylor (2011), Tabelle 1.2, S. 15 Rolf Weder VWL HS 11 9

10 (1) Zehn Prinzipien in den Wirtschaftswissenschaften How people make decisions 1. People face trade-offs 2. The cost of something is what you give up to get it 3. Rational people think at the margin 4. People respond to incentives Mankiw, Taylor (2011), Tabelle 1.2, S. 15 Rolf Weder VWL HS 11 10

11 (1) Zehn Prinzipien in den Wirtschaftswissenschaften Auszug aus der Menukarte, Café Murano, Basel Rolf Weder VWL HS 11 11

12 (1) Zehn Prinzipien in den Wirtschaftswissenschaften How people interact 5. Trade can make everyone better off 6. Markets are usually a good way to organize economic activity 7. Governments can sometimes improve market outcomes Mankiw, Taylor (2011), Tabelle 1.2, S. 15 Rolf Weder VWL HS 11 12

13 (1) Zehn Prinzipien in den Wirtschaftswissenschaften It is not from the benevolence of the butcher, the brewer, or the baker that we expect our dinner, but from their regard to their own interest. Every individual ( ) neither intends to promote the public interest, nor knows how much he is promoting it. ( ) He intends only his own gain, and he is in this, as in many other cases, led by an invisible hand to promote an end which was no part of his intention. Nor is it always the worse for the society that it was no part of it. By pursuing his own interest he frequently promotes that of the society more effectually than when he really intends to promote it. Adam Smith (1776), An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations, zitiert in Mankiw, Taylor (2011), S. 10 Rolf Weder VWL HS 11 13

14 (1) Zehn Prinzipien in den Wirtschaftswissenschaften Adam Smith ( ) Rolf Weder VWL HS 11 14

15 (1) Zehn Prinzipien in den Wirtschaftswissenschaften How the economy works as a whole 8. A country s standard of living depends on its ability to produce goods and services 9. Prices rise when the government prints too much money 10. Society faces a short-run trade-off between inflation and unemployment Mankiw, Taylor (2011), Tabelle 1.2, S. 15 Rolf Weder VWL HS 11 15

16 (1) Zehn Prinzipien in den Wirtschaftswissenschaften How people make decisions 1. People face trade-offs 2. The cost of something is what you give up to get it 3. Rational people think at the margin 4. People respond to incentives How people interact 5. Trade can make everyone better off 6. Markets are usually a good way to organize economic activity 7. Governments can sometimes improve market outcomes How the economy works as a whole 8. A country s standard of living depends on its ability to produce goods and services 9. Prices rise when the government prints too much money 10. Society faces a short-run trade-off between inflation and unemployment Mankiw, Taylor (2011), Tabelle 1.2, S. 15 Rolf Weder VWL HS 11 16

17 Struktur 1. Zehn Prinzipien in den Wirtschaftswissenschaften 2. Wirtschaftswissenschaften als Disziplin ( Thinking Like an Economist ) 3. Die Gewinne durch Handel ( Gains from Trade ) Rolf Weder VWL HS 11 17

18 (2) Wirtschaftswissenschaften als Disziplin The Economist as a Scientist - Wissenschaftliche Methode - Beobachtung Theorie Hypothese Empirische Analyse Verallgemeinerung/Folgerung - Annahmen und Modelle Beispiele (im Buch): - Das Kreislaufmodell (Circular-Flow-Diagram) - Die Produktionsmöglichkeitenkurve (Production Possibility Frontier) Albert Einstein dazu: Nothing more than the refinement of everyday thinking Rolf Weder VWL HS 11 18

19 (2) Wirtschaftswissenschaften als Disziplin The Economist as a Policy Advisor - Positive versus normative Analyse - Ökonomen an Universitäten, in Firmen, in Regierungen und internationalen Organisationen Beispiele: - Pascale: Minimum wage laws cause unemployment - Sophie: The government should raise the minimum wage - Why Economists disagree tun sie es wirklich? Rolf Weder VWL HS 11 19

20 (2) Wirtschaftswissenschaften als Disziplin John Maynard Keynes: - The study of economics does not seem to require any specialised gifts of unusually high order. Is it not ( ) a very easy subject compared with the higher branches of philosophy or pure science? ( ). The paradox finds its explanation, perhaps, in that the master-economist must possess a rare combination of gifts. - He must be mathematician, historian, statesman, philosopher in some degree. He must understand symbols and speak in words. ( ). He must study the present in the light of the past for the purpose of the future. ( ). (M/T, S. 40) Rolf Weder VWL HS 11 20

21 (2) Wirtschaftswissenschaften als Disziplin Von Theorien und Annahmen: - All theory depends on assumptions which are not quite true. That is what makes it a theory. The art of successful theorizing is to make the inevitable simplifying assumptions in such a way that the final results are not very sensitive. A crucial assumption is one on which the conclusions do depend sensitively, and it is important that crucial assumptions be reasonably realistic. When the results of a theory seem to flow specifically from a special crucial assumption, then if the assumption is dubious, the results are suspect (Solow, Robert (1956), A Contribution to the Theory of Growth, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 70, 1, S. 65) Rolf Weder VWL HS 11 21

22 (2) Wirtschaftswissenschaften als Disziplin Richtig? - Plenty of economic models try to explain the economic effects of migration. However, none of the models is able to perfectly model the real life, since they work only under restricted circumstances and assumptions. Therefore, empirical evidences are essential for further investigating the real effects of immigration on the economy of the receiving countries. (Verfasserin einer Masterarbeit im Jahre 2010 in einem interdisziplinären Master). Rolf Weder VWL HS 11 22

23 Struktur 1. Zehn Prinzipien in den Wirtschaftswissenschaften 2. Wirtschaftswissenschaften als Disziplin ( Thinking Like an Economist ) 3. Die Gewinne durch Handel ( Gains from Trade ) Rolf Weder VWL HS 11 23

24 (3) Gains from Trade Das Modell ( A Parable for the Modern Economy ) -2 Güter (Meat, Potatoes) - 2 Individuen (Farmer, Gardener) - Individuen können beide Güter produzieren und wollen vor allem konsumieren Vorgehen (typisch): - Produktion und Konsum ohne Austausch bzw. Handel - Produktion und Konsum bei Austausch bzw. Handel - Vergleich der beiden Ergebnisse - Verallgemeinerung der Erkenntnisse Rolf Weder VWL HS 11 24

25 (3) Gains from Trade Beschreibung der Produktionsmöglichkeiten: Mankiw, Taylor (2011), Tabelle 3.1., S. 53 Rolf Weder VWL HS 11 25

26 (3) Gains from Trade Mankiw, Taylor (2011), Figur 3.1., S. 54 Rolf Weder VWL HS 11 26

27 (3) Gains from Trade Mankiw, Taylor (2011), Tabelle 3.3., S. 58 Rolf Weder VWL HS 11 27

28 (3) Gains from Trade Ziel: Konsum von 27 kg Potatoes (=27P). Frage: wie kann dieses Ziel erreicht werden? Direkt: - 1.5M + 3P Handel:? Mankiw, Taylor (2011), S. 54 Preisannahme: 1M = 3P Rolf Weder VWL HS 11 28

29 (3) Gains from Trade Ziel: Konsum von 27 kg Potatoes (=27P). Frage: wie kann dieses Ziel erreicht werden? Mankiw, Taylor (2011), S. 54 Handel: (z.b.) Produktion: +6M - 12P Import: +15P Export: - 5M Konsum: +1M + 3P Rolf Weder VWL HS 11 29

30 (3) Gains from Trade Mankiw, Taylor (2011), Figur 3.2., S. 56 Rolf Weder VWL HS 11 30

31 (3) Gains from Trade Mankiw, Taylor (2011), Figur 3.2., S. 56 Rolf Weder VWL HS 11 31

32 (3) Gains from Trade Mankiw, Taylor (2011), Figur 3.2., S. 56 Rolf Weder VWL HS 11 32

33 (3) Gains from Trade Handel: (z.b.) Produktion: - 4M + 16P Export: - 15P Import: + 5M Konsum: +1M + 1P Mankiw, Taylor (2011), Figur 3.2., S. 56 Rolf Weder VWL HS 11 33

34 (3) Gains from Trade Rolf Weder VWL HS 11 34

35 (3) Gains from Trade Mankiw, Taylor (2011), Tabelle 3.2., S. 56 Rolf Weder VWL HS 11 35

36 (3) Gains from Trade Schlussbetrachtung - Wer hat wo absolute, wer wo komparative Vorteile? - Vorteil des Handels für Farmer, Vorteil für Gardener? - Von was hängt die Höhe des Gewinnes ab? - Anwendungen dieses Konzeptes bzw. dieses Modells? - David Beckham, Ingvar Kamprad (IKEA) - Länder (z.b. USA-China, Deutschland-Japan) - Afghanistan im Opiumhandel Rolf Weder VWL HS 11 36

37 (3) Gains from Trade Absolute Vorteile als Basis für die Spezialisierung: Adam Smith (1776), Wealth of Nations. Komparative Vorteile als Basis für die Spezialisierung: David Ricardo (1817), Principles of Political Economy and Taxation. David Ricardo ( ) Wer erklärte den Handel zwischen Ländern? Aber: Goeffrey Brennan and James M. Buchanan (1986) in ihrem Buch The Reason of Rules: ( ) the rules that coordinate the actions of individuals are important ( ). (p. 1) Rolf Weder VWL HS 11 37