How Clean is Clean? Incremental and Radical Innovations in Coal-fired Power Plants

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1 Mitglied der Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft How Clean is Clean? Incremental and Radical Innovations in Coal-fired Power Plants Stefan Vögele/Klaus Rennings/Peter Markewitz 10th IAEE European Conference 7-10 September 2009

2 Content 1. Introduction 2. Incremental vs. radical innovations 3. Ex-post analysis of innovations in power plant technology in Germany 4. Ex-ante analysis of innovations in power plant technology - CCS 5. Conclusions Systemforschung und technologische Entwicklung (IEF-STE) Stefan Vögele/Slide 2

3 1. Introduction High risks / uncertainties Small efficiency increase per step R&D time-consuming Radical innovations - more sustainable than incremental ones? Systemforschung und technologische Entwicklung (IEF-STE) Stefan Vögele/Slide 3

4 2. Incremental vs. radical Innovations Incremental: continuous improvements of existing technological systems, e.g. optimization of an exhaust air filter Radical: discontinuous processes, new technological trajectory, e.g. introduction of fuel cells Systemforschung und technologische Entwicklung (IEF-STE) Stefan Vögele/Slide 4

5 2. Incremental vs. radical Innovations Level 4 Economy as a whole (political environment,markets, etc.) Level 3 Energy system (consisting of power plants, grids, remaining infrastructure etc.) Level 2 Power plant (as a system of components) Level 1 Components Institut für Energieforschung Micro level September 2009 Systemforschung und technologische Entwicklung (IEF-STE) Stefan Vögele/Slide 5

6 Examples of innovations on micro-level Source: RWE Systemforschung und technologische Entwicklung (IEF-STE) Stefan Vögele/Slide 6

7 3. Ex-post analysis of innovations in power plant technology in Germany Focus of our study: Coal-based technologies for electricity generation Micro level (2): power plant Radical innovations if radical innovations on component level generate a new technological path for power plants Incremental innovations: within technological path of power plants (e.g. improvement of turbines or material) Systemforschung und technologische Entwicklung (IEF-STE) Stefan Vögele/Slide 7

8 Key technological trajectories in the power plant sector Trajectory "Conv. Pulverized Coal-fired Power Plants (PCFP)" PCFP with subcritical steam parameters PCFP with supercritical steam parameters PCFP with ultra-supercritical steam parameters Coal-fired power plants Trajectory "Pressurized Pulverized Coal Combustion (PPCC)" Coal-fired power plants with PPCC technology Trajectory "Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle (IGCC)" Coal-fired power plants with IGCC technology Trajectory "Fluidized Bed Combustion" Bubbling fluidized bed combustion at atmospheric pres. Pressurized fluidized bed combustion Atmospheric circulated fluidized bed comb. Pressurized circulating fluidized bed comb. Systemforschung und technologische Entwicklung (IEF-STE) Stefan Vögele/Slide 8

9 National R&D portfolio (Germany) National R&D portfolio (coal- and gas-fired power plants) Demonstration/pilot plants Power plant construction 1970s Coal gasification, CHP and district heating, improved efficiency of conventional power plant technologies, denitrification and desulphurisation processes Pressurised coal gasification Lünen, coal-fired power plant in Wilhelmshaven Nuclear power plants, conventional oil-, gas- and coal-fired power plants, partial desulphurisation 1980s Coal gasification, Combined-cycle power plants (gas turbines, coal), improved efficiency of conventional power plant technologies), fluidised-bed combustion (FBC) Combined-cycle power plant Gerstein, Völklingen (FBC), coal gasification (Berrenrath) Nuclear power plants, coalfired power plants with FGD and Denox, FBC 1990s Coal gasification (Kobra), Pressurised pulverised coal combustion (PPCC), fluidised-bed combustion (FBC), improved efficiency of conventional power plant technologies Pressurized fluidized bed combustion (Cottbus) Conventional coal-fired power plant, CCGT power plants, FBC, wind power plants Since 2000 Improved efficiency of conventional power plant technologies, carbon dioxide capture, FBC, PPCC (terminated in 2005) CCS (Schwarze Pumpe, Niederaußen) BoA power plant (lignite-fired power plant with optimised plant design), combined-cycle power plants, wind power plants Systemforschung und technologische Entwicklung (IEF-STE) Stefan Vögele/Slide 9

10 Key technological trajectories in the power plant sector Trajectory "Conv. Pulverized Coal-fired Power Plants (PCFP)" PCFP with subcritical steam parameters PCFP with supercritical steam parameters PCFP with ultra-supercritical steam parameters Coal-fired power plants Trajectory "Pressurized Pulverized Coal Combustion (PPCC)" X Coal-fired power plants with PPCC technology Trajectory "Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle (IGCC)" X/? Coal-fired power plants with IGCC technology Trajectory "Fluidized Bed Combustion" Bubbling fluidized bed combustion at atmospheric pres. X Pressurized fluidized bed combustion Atmospheric circulated fluidized bed comb. X Pressurized circulating fluidized bed comb. Systemforschung und technologische Entwicklung (IEF-STE) Stefan Vögele/Slide 10

11 Comparison of net efficiencies State of the Art Projections State of the Art Projections Pressurised Pulverised Coal Combustion (PPCC) % % Pressurized fluidized bed combustion (PFBC) - 44% 41% 53-55% IGCC % 45-48% 54-57% Conventional coal-fired power plants (hard coal) 40% 44% 46% 53% Conventional coal-fired power plants (lignite) 36% n.a. 43% 50% Source: Pruschek, 1990, COORETEC, 2003, Lezuo et al., 1989, Martin, 1988 Systemforschung und technologische Entwicklung (IEF-STE) Stefan Vögele/Slide 11

12 Comparison of net efficiencies (2) Small efficiency increases per step High risks/uncertainties Time consuming R&D Small advantages Systemforschung und technologische Entwicklung (IEF-STE) Stefan Vögele/Slide 12

13 4. Ex-ante analysis of innovations in power plant technology - CCS Risks high CCS - Post-Combustion IGCC with CCS CCS -Oxyfuel Indifference curve advanced conventional coalfired power plant (e.g. USC) low existing tech. low Expected Profitability high Systemforschung und technologische Entwicklung (IEF-STE) Stefan Vögele/Slide 13

14 4. Ex-ante analysis of innovations in power plant technology - CCS Post combustion: Advantage: retrofitting is possible Oxyfuel, Pre-Combustion: promising technologies in the long run All CCS technologies are useful, but risk of radical options may have to be taken by the government R&D policy: all technologies should be developed, radical innovations need higher support by the government Environmental policy: Emission Trading System decides on the application of a technology, costs of CO 2 avoidance are competitive, coal has to compete with alternative options of avoidance Systemforschung und technologische Entwicklung (IEF-STE) Stefan Vögele/Slide 14

15 5. Conclusions Literature: Radical innovations are more sustainable Difficult to be implemented due to lock-in effects Path-dependence underestimated Technology policy: increase diversity Result of this study: Radical innovations are not necessarily more sustainable Development path uncertain: Reorientation of old trajectories possible by improvement and adaptation to new environment Technology policy: - Monitoring necessary for economic and ecological impacts (technology impact assessment) - Consider diffusion of technology, do not forget the entire innovation process Systemforschung und technologische Entwicklung (IEF-STE) Stefan Vögele/Slide 15

16 Thank you for your attention! Contact: Systemforschung und technologische Entwicklung (IEF-STE) Stefan Vögele/Slide 16

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