Wieder ein Schritt aus der Krise

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1 HP - STARKER KAUF Wieder ein Schritt aus der Krise Dieses Unternehmen ist ausgehend vom Jyske Quant ausgewählt worden. Jyske Quant ist ein Modell, das den Unternehmen Noten auf Basis vieler Faktoren erteilt. Hierdurch berechnet das Modell eine Gesamtnote, die indiziert, inwieweit die Aktie zum aktuellen Zeitpunkt eine gute Anlage ist oder nicht. Dies ist ein nichtkomplexes Produkt. Schritt für Schritt arbeitet HP sich aus der Krise. Die Bilanz für das erste Quartal ist ein weiterer Beweis dafür. Wir halten an unserer STARKER KAUF-Empfehlung fest, werden aber nach der starken Kursentwicklung bei HP im Jahr 2013 nicht nach der Aktie laufen. Bilanz von HP in Ordnung: HP hat eine gute Bilanz für das erste Quartal 2014 vorgelegt. Der Gewinn je Aktie lag bei USD 0,90 gegenüber erwartet USD 0,85, und der Umsatz von USD 28,2 Mrd. lag um knapp USD 1 Mrd. über den Erwartungen. Sector Industry Fundamental valuation Cheap Risk Medium News flow Negative 12-month target price 38.7 Current price 30.2 Reuters HPQ US Bloomberg HPQ US JB sec. code Gegenüber dem Vorjahr stieg der Gewinn je Aktie um EPS %, und bereinigt um Währungsschwankungen verzeichnete der Umsatz eine flache Entwicklung. Elf Quartale sind vergangen, seit HP ein positives Wachstum erzielt hat. Insgesamt hat HP einen soliden Start ins Geschäftsjahr gehabt. Price trend HP S&P 500 Neben Kosteneinsparungen wurde die starke Bilanz vor allem von einem Absatzanstieg bei Standardservers von 6 %, einem Anstieg der Marge in der Druckersparte und von Immobilienverkäufen angetrieben. Schuldenfrei: Der freie Cashflow von HP lag bei imposanten USD 2,4 Mrd. (19 % J/J), d. h. deutlich über der Konsensschätzung von USD 1,8 Mrd. Obwohl der Anstieg von einer Optimierung des Arbeitskapitals gestützt wurde, bedeutet dies, dass HP wieder ein schuldenfreies Unternehmen ist (ohne die HP Financial Services-Sparte). Damit kann HP den Fehlkauf von Autonomy hinter sich legen. Gleichzeitig erwarten wir, dass HP nun den Cashflow zunehmend auf die Anleger zurückverteilen sowie technologische Akquisitionen zur Stärkung der New Style of IT-Strategie durchführen wird. Vorsichtige Prognose: Für das zweite Quartal erwartet HP einen Gewinn je Aktie von USD 0,85-0,89 gegenüber der Konsensschätzung von USD 0,89. Unserer Ansicht nach ist dies eine vorsichtige Meldung, - nur weil die Meldungen von HP oft konservativ sind. HP machte jedoch auch darauf aufmerksam, dass eine makroökonomische Schwäche in den 15 f m a m j j a s o n d j Source: Jyske Bank & Datastream Jyske Markets, Vestergade 8-16 DK-8600 Silkeborg Senioranalyst, Aktienanalyse, Robert Jakobsen jrj@jyskebank.dk Assistent, Aktienanalyse, Christoffer Thimsen christoffer.thimsen@jyskebank.dk Wichtige Anlegerinformation: Sehen Sie bitte die letzten Seiten

2 Schwellenländern gespürt werde. Gleichzeitig erhöhte HP die Prognose für den Gewinn je Aktie für 2014/2015 auf USD 3,60-3,75 gegenüber zuvor USD 3,55-3,75. Quant info Quant score 7.0 Share information Number of stocks (mill.) 1927 Valuation 7.4 High/Low last 12 months 30/17 Valuation relative 8.2 Price movements 3/12 months 21%/77% Financial strenght relative to index 18%/44% Quality 4.2 Market cap (mill. GBP) 0 Momentum 7.5 Free float 98% Performance 5.9 Avr. daily volume (mill.) 390 Unserer Ansicht nach zeigt dies insgesamt die schrittweise Transformation von HP. Der Weg ist jedoch noch weit, bis sich HP wieder als ein IT- Unternehmen mit einer starker Performance bezeichnen kann. Gute Ergebnisse sollten jedoch das Vertrauen der Anleger in die Geschäftsführung bei HP erhöhen. Wir halten an unserer STARKER KAUF-Empfehlung fest. 2

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4 Disclaimer & Disclosure Jyske Bank is supervised by the Danish Financial Supervisory Authority. The research report is based on information which Jyske Bank finds reliable, but Jyske Bank does not assume any responsibility for the correctness of the material nor any liability for transactions made on the basis of the information or the estimates of the report. The estimates and recommendations of the research report may be changed without notice. The report is for the personal use of Jyske Bank's customers and may not be copied. This report is an investment research report. Conflicts of interest Jyske Bank has prepared procedures to prevent and preclude conflicts of interest thus ensuring that research reports are being prepared in an objective manner. These procedures have been incorporated in the business procedures covering the equity research activities of Jyske Markets, a business unit of Jyske Bank. Moreover, equity analysts at Jyske Bank cannot trade in equities for which they prepare research reports. If an analyst takes over for the responsible analyst in connection with illness, business travels, etc., this analyst cannot trade in the relevant share on the day of publication of the research report and the following day. Jyske Bank may, however, hold positions, have interests in or business relations with the companies that are analysed. The research report has not been presented to the company prior to its release. Analysts receive no payment from persons interested in individual research reports. Read more about Jyske Bank's policy on conflicts of interest at Jyske Bank s share recommendations current allocation Allocation of recommendations, Danish shares (number) Allocation of recommendations, all shares (number) Strong Buy Buy Reduce Sell 0 Strong Buy Buy Reduce Sell Source: Jyske Bank Financial models Jyske Bank employs one or more of the following models: Discounted cash flow (free cash flow), Economic Value Added and the dividend model to determine the fundamental value of a company. The fundamental value is compared to a relative valuation based on multiples such as P/E and EV/EBITA. The recommendation and the price target are moreover adjusted for the expected news flow and the market sentiment based on knowledge of the industry and company-specific circumstances. Jyske Bank s recommendations take into account the expected development in the equity market, the various sectors and company-specific circumstances. Risk Investment in this share is associated with a risk. Movements in the equity market, the sector and/or news flows, etc. regarding the company may affect the price of the share. See the front page of the research report for our view of the risk associated with the share. The risk factors stated and/or calculations of sensitivities in the research report are not to be considered all-encompassing. If the share is traded in a currency other than the investor s base currency, the investor accepts an FX risk. In connection with an ADR or similar papers, the FX risk exists relative to the currency in which the underlying share trades. Update of research report The planned update of the report will be prepared immediately upon the release of the company s financial statements. In addition, research reports may be prepared on special themes specifically for the company or research reports where the company is part of the special theme. These research reports are published on an ad-hoc basis. See the front page for the initial date of publication of the report. All prices stated are the latest closing prices before the release of the report, unless otherwise stated. 4

5 Recommendation Risk-adjusted return Strong Buy >20% Buy -20% Reduce 0-% Sell <0% Source: Jyske Bank Share recommendation concepts Our recommendations are relative to the market development and are based on an evaluation of the forecast return within the coming 12 months. The forecast return is the difference between the current price and our 12-month price target (the price target includes the projected dividend). The equity market has historically yielded a return of around % (the US equity market, for instance, yielded a return of % during the period ). When we determine the recommendation for a share we use the % as an estimate of the return in the equity market. Since our recommendations are relative and risk-adjusted, it is possible to compare our recommendations across sectors and risk categories. In addition, the potential is stated in absolute terms via our price target. It should be borne in mind, however, that the recommendation is the anchor. A BUY recommendation will remain a BUY recommendation until changed, even if price increases have taken the price too close to the price target. The future and historical returns estimated in the research report are stated as returns before costs since returns after costs depend on a number of factors relating to individual customer relations, custodian charges, volume of trade as well as market-, currency- and productspecific factors. It is not certain that the share will yield the stated expected future return/s. The stated expected future returns exclusively express our best assessment. Risk classification definitions: Green products are pro ducts for which the risk of lo sin g the invested am o unt is regarded as insignificant provided th e investm ent is h eld to m atu rity. T h e p rod u ct ty pe is sim p le to gr asp. T his c ateg or y i ncl ud es D an ish go verm en t and m or tgag e bo n ds. Amber products are products for which there is a risk of losing the invested amount partially or fully. The product type is sim ple to grasp. This catego ry includes equ ities traded in regu lated mark ets, mutual fun d units and certificates. Red products are p ro d uc ts for wh ich ther e is a risk of los ing m or e than the i nves ted am ou nt, OR p ro d uct typ es wh ich are difficu lt to g rasp. This category includes structured bonds, hedge funds, options and forward exchange contracts. 5