Das elektrische Energieversorgungssystem der Zukunft Herausforderungen und Möglichkeiten. Göran Andersson Power System Lab ETH Zürich

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1 Das elektrsche Energeversorgungssystem der Zukunft Herausforderungen und Möglchketen Göran Andersson Power System Lab ETH Zürch

2 AGENDA Das Europäsche Stromnetz Technsche Herausforderungen Technsche Lösungen (Forschung an der ETH Z) Schlussfolgerungen November 2011 Physkalsche Gesellschaft Zürch 2

3 European Network of Transmsson System Operators for Electrcty ENTSO-E RG Contnental Europe = ex UCTE November 2011 Physkalsche Gesellschaft Zürch 3

4 Development of the power systems (In Europe and North Amerca) Isolated Plants Indvdual Systems Regonal Systems Contnental Systems November 2011 Physkalsche Gesellschaft Zürch 4

5 Development of the European Electrcty System: from UCTPE to ENTSOE-E November 2011 Physkalsche Gesellschaft Zürch 5

6 Source: ENTSO-E November 2011 Physkalsche Gesellschaft Zürch 6

7 Domnatng Coal Nuclear Addtonal Hydro Increasng Wnd Gas Bomass Photovoltac November 2011 Physkalsche Gesellschaft Zürch 7

8 November 2011 Physkalsche Gesellschaft Zürch 8

9 November 2011 Physkalsche Gesellschaft Zürch 9

10 Value of wholesale electrcty market n Europe s over 150 G, approx. 12% s cross border trade Annual cost of operatng the transmsson network s G Ageng networks - Mssng E-W and N-S lnks - Poorly adapted to renewable and dstrbuted generaton New nsttutonal archtecture wth Thrd Package - ENTSO E - Agency November 2011 Physkalsche Gesellschaft Zürch 10

11 Cross border transfer of power n Europe Source: ENTSO-E November 2011 Physkalsche Gesellschaft Zürch 11

12 Source: ENTSO-E November 2011 Physkalsche Gesellschaft Zürch 12

13 AGENDA Das Europäsche Stromnetz Technsche Herausforderungen Technsche Lösungen Schlussfolgerungen November 2011 Physkalsche Gesellschaft Zürch 14

14 The tradtonal tasks of the ENTSO-E system Increase relablty and securty by provdng redundancy (meshed networks) Improvng effcency by jont frequency control and shared power reserves (te lnes, power poolng, ) The new tasks of the ENTSO-E system Transmt power from remote power sources to load centers (wnd power ) Consttute a power market for dfferent actors November 2011 Physkalsche Gesellschaft Zürch 15

15 Integraton of Wnd Power EWEA (2008) November 2011 Physkalsche Gesellschaft Zürch 16

16 The Dynamcs of Wnd Power July 16, am swssgrd November 2011 Physkalsche Gesellschaft Zürch 17

17 The Dynamcs of Wnd Power July 16, am swssgrd November 2011 Physkalsche Gesellschaft Zürch 18

18 November 2011 Physkalsche Gesellschaft Zürch 19

19 Current Trends n Power Systems Increasng RES deployment (= fluctuatng power n-feed) Germany 2010: 45 GW power capacty, 52 TWh 10% of total generaton Stll mostly uncontrolled power n-feed Curtalment of wnd power n-feed for contngences mplemented n some countres (= partal controllablty) Measurement and predcton of PV and Wnd n-feed (state estmaton) 45 GW power capacty 52 TWh electrcty generated November 2011 Physkalsche Gesellschaft Zürch 20

20 50.06 Hz 50 Hz Hz KW-Ausfall Prmärregelung Sekundärregelung Tertärregelung 1200 MW 30 Sekunden 15 Mnuten 30 Mnuten The grd s actng lke a huge storage! Source: W. Sattnger, swssgrd November 2011 Physkalsche Gesellschaft Zürch 21

21 Europe wll need more Balancng Power November 2011 Physkalsche Gesellschaft Zürch 22

22 En möglches Scenaro für de Schwez 2050 Elektrsche Lestung [n MW] [n MW] Pumpspecher CH 1.7GW, GWh η = 75 80% Elektroautos 0.3 GW, 1.2 GWh η = 80 90% Stromüb erfluss Stromüberfluss Zet [ n Wärmepumpen 0.7 GW, 0.6 GWh Zet [ n h] Kühlgeräte 1GW, 0.1 GWh Strommangel mangel DSM (Boler) 2.5GW, 1GWh November 2011 Physkalsche Gesellschaft Zürch 23

23 En möglches Scenaro für de Schwez 2050 Pumpspecher CH Elektroautos Wärmepumpen Kühlgeräte DSM (Boler) 45 Stunden 4 Stunden 1 Stunde 6 Mn. 25 Mn. Elektrsche Lestung [n MW] Stromüberfluss Strommangel Zet [ n h] November 2011 Physkalsche Gesellschaft Zürch 24

24 Prognosen snd berets gut (Bespel PV-Erzeugung) 16' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' PV-Erzeugung n DE: 10 Tage vom November 2011 Physkalsche Gesellschaft Zürch 25

25 Prognosen snd berets gut (Bespel Wnd-Erzeugung) 14' ' ' ' ' ' ' x-achse: Stunden, y-achse: MW Wnd (Predcton) [MW] Wnd (Realsed) [MW] Wnd-Erzeugung n DE: 10 Tage vom November 2011 Physkalsche Gesellschaft Zürch 26

26 Installaton von Wndkraft und PV Redukton der Schwungmasse des Systems De Frequenzstabltät wrd gefährdet November 2011 Physkalsche Gesellschaft Zürch 27

27 Frequency Varatons, 1 Source: W. Sattnger, swssgrd November 2011 Physkalsche Gesellschaft Zürch 28

28 Oscllatons n Mult-Machne Systems, f [Hz] :05:00 08:06:00 08:07:00 08:08:00 08:09:00 08:10:00 08:11:00 08:12: Freq. Mettlen Freq. Brnds Source: W. Sattnger, swssgrd November 2011 Physkalsche Gesellschaft Zürch 29

29 Oscllatons n Mult-Machne Systems, 2 North- South ca. 4 s East- West ca. 5 s Source: W. Sattnger, swssgrd November 2011 Physkalsche Gesellschaft Zürch 30

30 AGENDA Das Europäsche Stromnetz Technsche Herausforderungen Technsche Lösungen Schlussfolgerungen November 2011 Physkalsche Gesellschaft Zürch 31

31 General Opnon: Hgh Voltage DC wll be a mportant system component n the future European Power Grd Power flows can be controlled November 2011 Physkalsche Gesellschaft Zürch 32

32 Upgradng the exstng Grd Suffcent to transport future Volumes? A new transmsson layer s essental to master the European energy challenges of the 21 st century. Source: T. Tllwcks, swssgrd November 2011 Physkalsche Gesellschaft Zürch 33

33 Plans and Vsons, 1 In Betreb MW In Planung MW Vorstuden MW Vorstuden (mt EWEA-Empfehlung) MW EWEA-Empfehlung MW (2020) MW (2030) France 2030: Vson des EWEA Offshore-Grds Italy Span Investtonsvolumen über 13 Mrd. November 2011 Physkalsche Gesellschaft Zürch 34

34 Plans and Vsons, 2 November 2011 Physkalsche Gesellschaft Zürch 35

35 Europe wll need more Balancng Power How provde t n a renewable & cost-effcent way? November 2011 Physkalsche Gesellschaft Zürch 36

36 Not only new hardware s needed! Old structure Energy Flow Generaton Transmsson Dstrbuton Consumer Informaton Flow Generaton Consumer Future structure Energy Flow Generaton Transmsson Dstrbuton Prosumer Informaton Flow Generaton Prosumer November 2011 Physkalsche Gesellschaft Zürch 37

37 Connectng Generaton wth Demand & Storage Extendng the Grd & Integratng Markets November 2011 Physkalsche Gesellschaft Zürch 38

38 Forschung an der ETH Zürch November 2011 Physkalsche Gesellschaft Zürch 39

39 One Power Node Storage capacty state-of-charge Internal losses Power out-feed from grd Power n-feed to grd Sheddng term C x = η load u load η 1 gen u gen + ξ w v Effcency factors Provded / demanded power November 2011 Physkalsche Gesellschaft Zürch 40

40 Examples of Power Node Defntons General formulaton: C x = η load u load η 1 gen u gen + ξ w v Combned Heat/ Power Plant(CHP), Berln-Mtte Fully dspatchable generaton no load, no storage (C) Fuel: natural gas (ξ>0) η = ξ 1 u gen gen Offshore Wnd Farm, Denmark dspatchable generaton, f wnd blows (ξ) and energy waste term (w) non-zero no load, no storage (C) Fuel: wnd power (ξ>0) η 1 ugen = ξ w gen November 2011 Physkalsche Gesellschaft Zürch 41

41 Examples of Power Node Defntons General formulaton: C x = η load u load η 1 gen u gen + ξ w v Hydro Pumped Storage, Germany Fully dspatchable generaton (turbne) and load (pump) Constraned storage (C 8 GWh) Fuel: almost no water nflux (ξ 0) C x = η u η load load 1 gen u gen Emosson (Nant de Drance), Swtzerland Fully dspatchable generaton, but no load (pump) large storage (C 1000 GWh) Fuel supply: ran and snow meltng (ξ>>0) C x = 1 η + ξ u gen gen Varants: modellng of hydro cascades (tme-delay of water flow between stages). November 2011 Physkalsche Gesellschaft Zürch 42

42 Optmal predctve power dspatch (Germany, hgh PV) T pred. = 72h, T upd. = 4h, T sample =15mn. Smulaton Perod: May 2010 (30% Wnd, 50% PV,, no DSM) November 2011 Physkalsche Gesellschaft Zürch 43

43 Evaluaton of balance terms (May 2010) Case: 30%Wnd, 50% PV,,no DSM Balance Term Value [GWh] Electrcty consumed by loads Electrcty produced by conv. generator ( 48%) Wnd generaton fed nto grd Wnd generaton curtaled PV generaton fed nto grd ( 248%) PV generaton curtaled Warm-water heater Load not avalable Pumped hydro storage Generaton ( 424%) Pumped hydro storage Load ( 496%) November 2011 Physkalsche Gesellschaft Zürch 44

44 AGENDA Das Europäsche Stromnetz Technsche Herausforderungen Technsche Lösungen Schlussfolgerungen November 2011 Physkalsche Gesellschaft Zürch 45

45 Challenges ahead Techncal challenge = TSOs and ENTSO-E Economc challenge = Market players Regulatory challenge = NRAs and Agency Conceptual challenge = Techncal + Economc + Regulatory challenges Poltcal challenge = EU, Governments and Ctzens November 2011 Physkalsche Gesellschaft Zürch 46

46 En scheres elektrsches Energesystem mt hohem Antel neuer erneuerbarer Energequellen st ohne Komfortverlust möglch Aber wr brauchen: enen starken Ausbau von Kurz- und Langzetspecher en flexbles Netz und ntellgente Netzführung noch bessere Prognosemodelle (auf lokaler Ebene) November 2011 Physkalsche Gesellschaft Zürch 47

47 The hstory of the electrc power system In the begnnng was Edson (DC) Then Westnghouse (Tesla) took over (AC) In the future electrc power system they wll / must co-exst November 2011 Physkalsche Gesellschaft Zürch 48

48 Fragen? November 2011 Physkalsche Gesellschaft Zürch 49