A 100% Renewable Electricity Supply by 2050: Climate-friendly, Reliable, and Affordable

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1 Bonn Climate Change Talks August 2010 A 100% Renewable Electricity Supply by 2050: Climate-friendly, Reliable, and Affordable Prof. Dr. Miranda Schreurs German Advisory Council on the Environment, Berlin Director of the Environmental Policy Research Centre and Professor of Comparative Politics at the Freie Universität Berlin 1

2 The German Advisory Council on the Environment: Providing scientific policy advice since 1971 independent, inter-disciplinary scientific council nominated by the Federal Cabinet comprised of 7 professors (natural science, engineering, economics, law, political science) Broad mandate to provide early warning of negative trends and new ideas for furthering environmental policy and inform the wider public SRU is an active member of the European Environment Advisory Councils (EEAC) 2

3 The Challenge: Full Decarbonisation WBGU, 2009: Solving the Climate Dilemma: the Budget Approach 3

4 Conclusions 100% renewable electricity is achievable by 2050 Security of supply can be assured at a competitive cost Initial higher costs (compared to conventional energies) is an investment in the transition to a least cost solution (Offshore) wind energy will be the most important single contributor to a 100% renewable electricity system Pumpstorage capacity in Scandinavia will play a critical role in balancing supply and demand An energy transition without new coal plants or extended nuclear running times can be modelled Expanding supply of renewable energy from 2020 onwards requires flexible base load energy 4

5 Comparing Low Carbon Technologies Conclusion: Renewable energy is the least controversial and most sustainable option for decarbonisation Demand reduction Nuclear Fossil with CCS Renewable Energies?? Requirement Acceptance Resources Waste Cost Capacity Containment Grid Extension Storage Compatibility? 5

6 Deutschen Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR) Scenarios Backcasting Approach REMix-Europe (Renewable Energy Mix for Sustainable Electricity Supply in Europe) Inventory of Ressources GIS (Geographic information system), C Power Needs and Load GIS, C Hydro Geothermal Wind Solar Biomass Linear Optimisation GAMS (General Algebraic Modeling System) 6

7 Key model assumption: Learning Cost Curves In the middle range of literature 0,50 0,45 0,40 0,35 0,30 Photovoltaik Biomasse gesamt Wind Offshore Wind Onshore Wasserkraft gesamt Geothermie /kwh 0,25 0,20 0,15 0,10 0,05 0, Jahr 7

8 Low cost potential: Europe NorthAfrica (EUNA) (ca. factor 8-10x forecasted demand) Low cost potential Forecast Demand 8

9 100% renewable electricity 8 scenarios Demand Germany 2050: 500 TWh Demand Germany 2050: 700 TWh Self-Sufficiency Scenario 1.a DE-100 % SS-500 Scenario 1.b DE-100 % SS-700 Net self-sufficiency including trade with DK/NO Max 15% Net import from DK/NO Scenario 2.1.a DE-NO/DK-100 % SS-500 Scenario 2.2.a DE-NO/DK-85 % SS-500 Scenario 2.1.b DE-NO/DK-100 % SS-700 Scenario 2.2.b DE-NO/DK-85 % SS-700 Max 15% Net import from EUNA Scenario 3.a DE-EUNA-85 % SS-500 Scenario 3.b DE-EUNA-85 % SS-700 9

10 System Cost can be kept below 7ct/Kwh assuming stabilisation of electricity consumption and trade Zusammensetzung der Stromgestehungskosten pro kwh für Deutschland (2050) 12,00 10,00 8,00 7,0 ct/kwh ct/kwh 6,00 4,00 2,00 Importierte Elektrizität Druckluftspeicher Pumpspeicher Speicherwasser Laufwasser Biogas KWK Biomasse KWK Biomasse Geo KWK Geothermie Wind Off Wind On Photovoltaik 0,00 1.a: DE- 100% SV a: DE- NO/DK-100% SV a: DE- NO/DK-85% SV a: DE- EUNA-85% SV-500 Szenario 1.b: DE- 100% SV b: DE- NO/DK-100% SV b: DE- NO/DK-85% SV

11 The cost development Compared to a conventional supply scenario (Germany) Specific electricity costs over time (Szenario 2.1.a) Konventionelle Energieträger (Leitstudie 2008, Szenario A) Erneuerbare Energien (inkl. Speicher & Transport) Anteil Speicher & Transport Konventionelle Energieträger( Leitstudie 2008 Szenario B) HVDC innerhalb Deutschlands Erneruerbare Energien (inkl. Speicher und Transport (nat. und int.) cent/kwh Year 11

12 Hourly results 2050 DE-DK-N 100% national production, 15% exchange 12

13 TEN-E Needs by 2050 and the key role of the nordic power house Maximum transmission capacity in GW (Scenario 3.a) > 2 GW > 10 GW > 20 GW > 40 GW > 100 GW PT IE 4,7 48,7 ES NO 20,7 5,6 SE 73,4 115,7 9,1 2,0 EE/LT/LV DK 20,5 16,8 2,1 19,1 52,8 72,0 UK NL 5,1 PL 2,1 BY 3,4 9,4 DE 20,3 3,2 BE 4,0 2,2 11,2 86,8 8,9 89,4 5,5 LU CZ U/MD 2,1 32,7 22,7 SK 12,2 2,5 AT 4,3 8,6 2,9 18,5 CH/LI HU FR 13,0 26,9 5,5 3,9 RO BA/HR/SI IT 5,4 5,5 6,6 45,1 3,2 10,1 BG 81,6 AL/CS/MK 17,1 7,9 9,3 8,8 6,2 4,6 18,9 8,3 GR 4,9 TR 4,2 FI 3,0 MA 14,4 2,3 9,0 DZ 4,5 TN 6,6 MT 21,9 40,9 42,3 CY LY 3,2 EG 13

14 Development of renewable energy mix in Germany until 2050 Entwicklung der Bruttostromerzeugung 2005 bis 2050 konventionelle Erzeugung und regenerative Energiequellen (für 509 TWh/a in 2050) TWh/a Jahr KernE BK SK EG Sonstige konventionelle Energieträger Wasserkraft gesamt Wind Onshore Wind Offshore Biomasse gesamt PV Geothermie Zubau Erdgas Zubau Steinkohle Zubau Braunkohle 14

15 Fluctuating supply overstretches nuclear plant flexibility already in 2020 Nuclear ca. 20 GW Complete run down below 10 GW 15

16 Planning for the Future Develop a binding climate and carbon neutral electricity target linked to emissions trading for 2050 (important for providing economic signals) Promote further measures for energy efficiency the most important bridging technology Introduce measures at both the European and national levels to support the expansion of renewables, including continuation of a reformed feed-in-tariff and development of 2030 renewables targets Avoid the construction of new conventional power plants as they are neither consistent with a low carbon energy goal nor with the need for a flexible base load power supply Initiate planning for and develop incentives to foster the development of a new, expanded electricity grid Cooperate with Scandinavia in the development of hydro pump storage capacity 16

17 BACKUP 17

18 Pumpstorage in Norway: Load Management needs are anticyclical to natural fluctuation of hydropower capacity Füllstand der norwegischen Speicherwasserkapazität mit Ein- und Ausspeicherung aus Szenario 2.1 für 2050 Max. Füllstand 84 TWh Min. Füllstand 0 TWh Energiemenge [TWh] Zeit [Woche] NO real 2008 Minimaler Speicherfüllstand Maximaler Speicherfüllstand Szenario 2.1a Szenario 2.1b 18

19 19 DLR REMix Regions Italien 16 Ungarn 15 Griechenland 14 Deutschland 13 Frankreich 12 Finnland 11 Lettland 10 Litauen 10 Estland 10 Irland 9 Dänemark 8 Tschech. Rep. 7 Zypern 6 Bulgarien 5 Belgien 4 Österreich 3 Slowenien 2 Kroatien 2 Bosnien 2 Mazedonien 1 Serbien 1 Albanien 1 Land (Region) Nr. Ägypten 36 Libyen 35 Tunesien 34 Marokko 33 Algerien 32 Weißrussland 31 Moldawien 30 Ukraine 30 Großbritannien 29 Türkei 2 28 Liechtenstein 27 Schweiz 27 Schweden 26 Spanien 25 Rumänien 24 Portugal 23 Polen 22 Norwegen 21 Niederlande 20 Malta 19 Luxemburg 18 Slowak. Rep. 17