HydrologicalModelling of Alpine River Catchments using Output Variables from Atmospheric Models
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1 Diss. ETH No HydrologicalModelling of Alpine River Catchments using Output Variables from Atmospheric Models A dissertation submitted to the SwissFederalInstitute of Technology (ETH) ZÜRICH for the degree of Doctorof Natural Science presentedby Karsten Jasper Diploma Hydrologist, born 29 August 1966 Citizen of Germany TU Dresden accepted on the recommendation of Prof. Dr. C. Schär, examiner Prof. Dr.-Ing. G. A. Schultz, co-examiner Prof. Dr. H. Lang, co-examiner Dr. J. Gurtz, co-examiner 2001
2 Abstract Over the last decade, flooding events on the southern side of the European Alps have claimed over 100 lives and property damage has amounted to more than 30 billion Swiss Francs. Ac cordingly, policy-makers and the public are strongly interested in precise and early forecasts in order to improve the options for control actions which are needed for warning and for dam age prevention and minimization. Commonly used methods of runoff and flood prediction based on observed data are strongly limited with respect to their capabilities of providing the necessary lead time for small to medium scale alpine river catchments. Hence, there is a great need for advancedforecast methods. The aim of this thesis is to investigate the current potential of such an advanced approach for a medium scale mountain watershed. For this purpose, series of high-resolution numerical weather predictionsare used to drive a detailed catchment model. Target areas of the investi gations are the river catchments of Ticino, Verzasca and Maggia. The catchments cover a total area of 2627 km2 and drain directly from the north into the Lago Maggiore. Due to its particular location in the European Alps, these pre-alpine to high-alpine catchments are rela tively frequently affected by heavy precipitation and corresponding flooding events. The first part of the thesis presents the hydrological Water Flow and Balance Simulation Model WaSiM-ETH.The theoretical basics of this highly detailed catchment model are de scribedas well as the possible model applicationsand the potential for future model Upgrades. In the second part of the thesis, spatially distributed simulationsinvestigate the hydrological water balance of the Ticino-Verzasca-Maggiawatershed. In these simulations,the physicallybased WaSiM-ETH catchment model is driven by meteorological data from surface Station networks. The simulations are performed in hourly time Steps using a spatial grid resolution of 500 m x 500 m. The calibration and Validation of WaSiM-ETH are carried out using measured runoff data for the periods and , respectively. The impact of reservoir management and artificial runoff redistributions on the natural catchment water balance is considered. Using the calibrated able damages in the model WaSiM-ETH,seven relevant flooding events leading to consider period between 1993 and 2000 are thoroughly analysed in the third part of the thesis. The model experiments are focused on runoff simulations using different mete orological model inputs. On the one hand, WaSiM-ETH is driven by meteorological data of either surface Station networks or weather radar. On the other hand, the Simulation results of five high-resolution numerical weather prediction modeis (3-14 km mesh) are used as model input into WaSiM-ETH in order to reproduce the selected flood events. The experimental design of this model coupling is described. Particular attention is paid to the "scale problem", i.e. the disaggregation of the coarser grid data of the weather modeis (e.g. 10 km mesh) to the finer grid of the hydrologicalmodel (0.5 km mesh). Althoughthe results of the flood forecast-
3 ABSTRACT viii ing experiments (leading times up to 36 hours) are of varying accuracy, they clearly suggest that coupled atmospheric-hydrological modelling has a great potential. Nevertheless,there are also some obvious problems and limitations concerning this technique which are particularly evident in sensitivity studies. The latter make clear that relatively small inaccuracies in precipitation forecastingoften grow into considerable errors in flood forecasting. The contribution of hydrological modeis to the process of verification and evaluationof highresolution atmospheric simulations is discussed in the last part of the thesis. This is done by concatenating daily forecasts of the former operational weather predictionmodel of Switzerland to a 3.5-year forecast sequence ( ) which is subsequently provided as meteoro logical input for the hydrological WaSiM-ETH model. The results of these coupled model runs are compared to measured runoff data and to simulated catchmentwater balances which are based on computations with the Swiss weather model itself and on observation-driven WaSiM-ETH model runs. In of another model addition, high-resolutionweather predictions are used for modelling the river runoff by means of coupled simulations for a 2.5-monthse quence (MAP-SOP 1999). The Simulation results agree in general with the observed and simulated runoff sequences. Nevertheless,they also make clear the need to adjust the precipitation forecasts with respect to their bias before using them for hydrological flood forecasting.
4 Zusammenfassung Hochwasser auf der Alpensüdseite haben in der Schweiz und in Norditalien im vergangenen Jahrzehnt mehr als 100 Tote gefordert und Schäden in Höhe von über 30 Mrd. Schweizer Franken verursacht. Entsprechendgross ist das Interesse der Politik und Öffentlichkeit an möglichst frühzeitigen und exakten Vorhersagen, um so den Handlungsspielraumfür das Ausgeben von Warnungen und für das Einleiten von geeigneten Massnahmen zur Schaden abwehr oder Schadenverminderung zu vergrössern. Die Vergangenheithat gezeigt, dass her kömmliche, auf Beobachtungsdatenbasierende Methoden der Abfluss- und Hochwasservor hersage nicht oder nur sehr begrenzt in der Lage sind, diesen benötigten Zeitvorsprung für kleine bis mittelgrosse alpine Flusseinzugsgebiete bereitzustellen. Erweiterte,mit einem grös seren Zeitvorsprung verbundenevorhersagemethoden werden daher dringend benötigt. Ziel dieser Arbeit ist es, das gegenwärtige Potential einer solchen erweitertenmethode in einem mittelgrossen Gebirgseinzugsgebiet auszuloten. Zu diesem Zweck werden Serien von hochauf-lösenden computergestützten Wettervorhersagen zum Antrieb eines detaillierten hyd rologischen Flussgebietsmodells genutzt. Zielgebiete der Untersuchungen sind die in den Lago Maggiore entwässernden Flusseinzugsgebiete des Ticino, der Verzasca und der Maggia. Sie bedecken gemeinsam eine Fläche von 2627 km2. Aufgrund ihrer speziellen geographi schen Lage im Südalpenraumsind diese z.t. hochalpinen Flusseinzugsgebiete besonders häu fig von aussergewöhnlichen Starkregenereignissen und damit zusammenhängendenhochwas ser- und Überschwemmungskatastrophenbetroffen. Der erste Teil der Arbeit widmet sich der Präsentationdes eingesetzten hydrologischen Wasserfluss- und Wasserhaushalts-Simulations-Modells WaSiM-ETH. Es werden sowohl die theoretischengrundlagen des Modellsystems als auch die Möglichkeiten seiner Anwendung und zukünftigen Erweiterung vorgestellt und diskutiert. Im zweiten Teil erfolgt die flächendifferenzierte hydrologische Simulation des Ticino- Verzasca-Maggia Untersuchungsgebietes. Das physikalisch basierte Modell WaSiM-ETH wird dazu mit beobachteten meteorologischen Daten angetrieben. Die Simulationen werden in stündlichen Zeitschritten und mit einer räumlichen Auflösung von 500 m x 500 m durchge führt. Die Kalibrierung und Validierung des Modells erfolgen anhand gemessenerabflussda ten für die Zeiträume bzw Die Beeinflussung des natürlichenabfluss regimes durch Speicherregulierungen und künstlichen Abflussumverteilungen wird berück sichtigt. Mit dem an die Einzugsgebiete angepassten hydrologischen Modell werden schliesslich im dritten Teil der Arbeit sieben relevante Hochwasserereignisse analysiert, die im Zeitraum zu teilweise erheblichen Schäden im Untersuchungsgebiet geführt haben. Die Mo dellexperimente sehen Abflusssimulationen mit unterschiedlichen Modelleingabenvor. Auf der einen Seite wird WaSiM-ETH mit meteorologischen Daten angetrieben,die entwedervon
5 ZUSAMMENFASSUNG Bodenmessnetzen des meteorologischen Dienstes oder aber auch vom Wetterradar bereitge stellt worden sind. Auf der anderen Seite werden die simulierten Daten von fünf hochauflö senden Wettervorhersagemodellen (Maschenweiten zwischen 3 km und 14 km) als Mo delleingaben in WaSiM-ETH genutzt, um die ausgewählten Hochwasser nachzubilden. Das experimentelle Design dieser Modellkopplung wird beschrieben. Dabei wird dem Skalen problem", also dem Transferierender Daten vom gröberen Raster der Wettermodelle(z.B. 10 km Maschenweite) auf das feinere Raster des hydrologischen Modells (0.5 km Maschenwei te), besondere Aufmerksamkeitgewidmet. Obwohl die Ergebnisse der gekoppelten Hochwas sersimulationen(zeitvorsprünge bis zu 36 Stunden) recht grosse Unterschiede bezüglich ihrer Qualität zeigen, lassen sie doch recht deutlichdas Potential erkennen, dass der Kopplung von atmosphärischen und hydrologischen Modellen zugrunde liegt. Ungeachtet dessen muss in diesem Zusammenhang auch auf die derzeitigen Probleme und Limitierungen für diese Art der Hochwassermodellierungverwiesen werden. Verschiedene Sensitivitätsstudien zeigen deutlich, dass in Gebirgseinzugsgebieten relativ geringe Ungenauigkeitenin der Nieder schlagsvorhersage zu erheblichen Fehlem in der Abflussvorhersage führen können. Welchen Beitrag verteilte hydrologische Modelle bei der Überprüfung und Bewertung von hochauflösenden atmosphärischen Simulationen leisten können, zeigt der letzte Teil dieser Arbeit. Hier werden aufeinanderfolgende 24-Stunden-Vorhersagen des Operationellen SchweizerWettervorhersagemodells für einen Zeitraum von 3.5 Jahren ( )aneinandergekettet und als meteorologische Eingaben für das hydrologische Modell WaSiM-ETH genutzt. Die Ergebnisse dieser gekoppelten Modellläufe werden mit gemessenen Abflussda ten, aber auch simulierten hydrologischen Wasserbilanzen verglichen, die zum einen vom Schweiz Modell" selbst und zum anderen von dem mit Beobachtungsdatenangetriebenen WaSiM-ETH Modell berechnet worden sind. Zusätzlich werden für einen Zeitraum von 2.5 Monaten (MAP-SOP 1999) hochauflösende Vorhersageneines weiteren numerischenwetter vorhersagemodells in die gekoppelten Modelluntersuchungen mit einbezogen. Die Ergebnisse der durchgeführten Modellexperimentezeigen einerseits eine prinzipiell gute Übereinstim mung von beobachteten und simuliertenabflüssen. Andererseits unterstreichen sie aber auch die Notwendigkeit, den vorhergesagten Niederschlag vor seiner Einspeisung in das hydrologi sche Modell einer Bias-Korrektur zu unterziehen.
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