. Rolle der PV. For Our Environment

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1 For Our Environment. Rolle der PV. Dr. Harry Lehmann General Director at the Federal Environment Agency, Germany Head of Division I Environmental Planning and Sustainability Strategies

2 The Paris Agreement Conseqences (Article 4): decarbonization of all societies Germany has to increase goals. -95 % Greenhouse Gas Emission in 2050 (industrialized countries)

3 Ziele Climate Renewable Energy Efficiency GHG (vs. 1990) Electric power Total share Primary energy Energy productivity Modernising buildings % 35% 18% - 20% % 50% 30% % 65% 45% increase to 2,1% p.a. double rate 1% 2% % 80% 60% - 50% 4

4 2Äq Emissionen in Mio.t CO Treibhausgas Neutrales Deutschland Waste 800 LULUCF Agriculture 10 6 t CO 2eq % Industrial processes, solvents and other product applications Transport Energy (excluding transport) UBA THGND Quelle: Umweltbundesamt

5 2Äq Emissionen in Mio.t CO Treibhausgas Neutrales Deutschland UBA THGND Annäherung mit systemischen / holistischen Szenarien Quelle: Umweltbundesamt

6 Archetypen einer 100% EE Versorgung Regionenverbund (2010) Lokale Autarkie (2013) Internationale Großtechnik (2014)

7 Treibhausgas Neutrales Deutschland Electricity Agriculture Industry Land Use t/cap Waste Heating Cooling Transport

8 TWh TWh Energie Effizienz % 22% 38% 5% % 33% 52% 8%

9 Greenhouse Gas Neutral Germany Electricity Agriculture Industry Land Use 100% REN Waste Heating Cooling Transport

10 Decentralized / small GHG Neutral Germany - Electricity International / far away Installed Capacity GW 45 6,4 5,2 23,3 120 Photovoltaic Wind energy onshore Wind energy offshore Hydropower Centralized / big Geothermal energy 60 National / Local / nearby

11 Leistung (GW) Feed-in of renewable energy and load per month (winter) EE-Einspeisung und Last (Meteo-Jahr 2007, Januar) 160 Geothermie Laufwasser Onshore-Wind Offshore-Wind PV Basislast Gesamtlast mit Lastmanagement FhG IWES Tag Feed-in [GW] of all RE and the load curve Example Winter month (December) for the feed-in of renewable energies in 2050, based on the meteorological year 2007

12 Leistung (GW) Feed-in of renewable energies and load per month (summer) EE-Einspeisung und Last (Meteo-Jahr 2007, August) 160 Geothermie Laufwasser Onshore-Wind Offshore-Wind PV Basislast Gesamtlast mit Lastmanagement FhG IWES Tag Feed-in [GW] of all RE and load Example Summer month (August) for the feed-in of renewable energies in 2050, based on the meteorological year 2007

13 Storage needed Gravitational Storage Chemical Storage H2 or emethan (SolarMethan) Electric Storage

14 Residual load (GW) Different Storage Systems in a 100% REN Elec. System Total residual load (with load management and pump storage) in the year 2050, based on data from the meteorological year 2007 pumped Storage Norway (theory) Capacity gas grid (today) 42 Mio. electric vehicles (theory) pumped Storage (today) 24

15 Treibhausgas Neutrales Deutschland Electricity Agriculture Industry Land Use Power to X Waste Heating Cooling Transport

16 Lösungsraum für ein Treibhausgas Neutrales Deutschland Strom Wasserstoff Treibstoffe Source UBA

17 Treibhausgas Neutrales Deutschland Electricity Agriculture Industry Land Use Power to X Waste Heating Cooling Transport

18 Anspruchsvolle Klimaschutzziele im Gebäudesektor brauchen: Sanierung UND Energiewende UND Lebensstil Minderung THG-Emissionen (Basis 1990) Neubaustandards Effizienz Sanierun g THG-Minderungen sind im Gebäudesektor durch Sanierung möglich -40% bis -60% Neubau + Zur Erreichung anspruchsvoller Klimaschutzziele muß die Energiewende dazu kommen -95% Alternative Brennstoffe Solarenergie Energiewende Rebound ist zu vermeiden Quelle: Umweltbundesamt und Harry Lehmann,2016

19 COP21 and the consequences for sustainable building 2050 scenarios with different renovation standards SBE 16 Hamburg UBA Dr. Harry Lehmann Quelle: UBA ÖkoInstitut Fraunhofer Institut 2016

20 COP21 and the consequences for sustainable building 2050 scenarios with different renovation standards SBE 16 Hamburg UBA Dr. Harry Lehmann Quelle: UBA ÖkoInstitut Fraunhofer Institut 2016

21 Treibhausgas Neutrales Deutschland Electricity Agriculture Industry Land Use Power to X Waste Heating Cooling Transport

22 Power to Mobility - direct use of electricity and PTL Electricity (incl. Plug-in-Hybrid) Passenger car Trucks short haul possibly Trucks long haul as overhead wire Urban buses Rail traffic Quelle: Deutsche Handwerkszeitung.de Quelle: siemens.com Quelle:urlaubsgur.de Quelle:badischeZeitung.de PTL: methanol, kerosene, gasoline, diesel, Quelle: spieg

23 Power to Mobility Scenario (1.600 PJ) Internationaler Verkehr Quelle: Deutsche Handwerkszeitung.de Quelle: siemens.com Nationaler Verkehr Quelle: IFEU/INFRAS/LBST Quelle: spieg Quelle:urlaubsgur.de Quelle:badischeZeitung.de

24 Treibhausgas Neutrales Deutschland Möglich Qualitative representation of the energy flow in the UBA THGND 2050 Scenario Source: UBA

25 Climate Action Plan 2050 UBA Klimaschutzplan Diskussionsbeitrag English version of this position paper is forthcoming.

26 Globale Primärrohstoffentnahme Quelle: Krausmann et al. (2009): Growth in global materials use, GDP and population during the 20th century, Ecological Economics Vol. 68, Nr. 10, , Version 1.2 (August 2011),

27 Ressourcenschonung auch möglich?

28 Ressourcenschonung auch möglich? 2050 ist heute!!!

29 Danke! Dr. Harry Lehmann Germany A Greenhouse Gas-Neutral Country a-greenhouse-gas-neutral-country Integration of Power to Gas/ Power to Liquids into the ongoing transformation process -of-power-to-gas-power-to-liquids-into Proceedings of the Workshop Decarbonisation 100 % Renewable Energy and more from November dings-of-the-workshop-decarbonisation-100