Passenger transport: challenges, trends & opportunities

Transkript

1 Passenger transport: challenges, trends & opportunities Matthias Gather Transport and Spatial Planning Institute Erfurt University of Applied Sciences EIONET meeting on Environment and Transport European Environment Agency 12 th June 2014 Copenhagen

2 Contents Forecasts and trends of mobility Challenges of a sustainable transport system Long distance rail and modal shift Evaluation of European rail connections Conclusions 1

3 Forecasts of mobility Source: OECD / ITF (2012): Transport Outlook - Seamless Transport for Greener Growth, p. 22 2

4 Forecasts of mobility Source: OECD / ITF (2012): Transport Outlook - Seamless Transport for Greener Growth, p. 26 3

5 Forecasts of mobility Source: OECD / ITF (2012): Transport Outlook - Seamless Transport for Greener Growth, p. 26 4

6 Trends in mobility In the U.S., U.K., Germany, Netherlands, Scandinavia Significant decline of car possession and car use amongst younger (urban) people More multimodality and intermodality More deliberately non-motorized trips More multi-locality More long-distance travel 5

7 Challenges and questions concerning a sustainable transport system Social justice Mobility for all (elderly, disabled, poor people... )? Multimodality in all parts of the country? Sufficient supply in all parts of the country? Environment Containing energy demand and traffic growth? Promoting green means of transportation? Mitigating existing and avoiding future environmental damages? Economic efficiency Free and efficient (international) exchange of goods? Secure financing of transport infrastructure? True cost in the transport system? 6

8 Challenges and objectives De-coupling of transport and economic growth (Traffic and transport are not synonymous with mobility > securing mobility with less traffic!) Modal shift towards environmentally friendlier means of transport Improving the environmental impact / mitigating the environmental costs of transport 7

9 CO 2 Emissions in g/pkm CO 2 - Emissions of transport modes in passenger transport in g/pkm Alternative fuels? Electric vehicles? Flugzeug Airplane Pkw Car Bahn Rail (reg) - NV Linienbus Bus (reg) Bahn Rail (long) - FV Reisebus Coach Fahrrad Bicycle Transport mode Quelle: Umweltbundesamt

10 Long distance rail and modal shift High-speed rail as an alternative for air transport On the links Paris-Brussels, Paris-Marseille and Madrid-Seville the share of rail transport has increased by a factor 2-3 following introduction of high-speed rail services. On the links Paris-London and Madrid-Barcelona rail had a share of respectively 70 and 60% in On some of the links (e.g. Paris-Brussels) air services were discontinued after introduction of the high-speed rail services. High-speed rail is a proven alternative for air transport with travel times up to 4 hours. Data for the HSL-Est connection that was finished in 2007 show that air transport on the Paris- Strasbourg link has been reduced from 1 million flights to 400,000 flights. Source: CE Delft (2011): Potential of modal shift to rail transport, p. 54 9

11 Selected European metropolises (116) Larger Urban Zones (Agglomerationen) > 1 Mio. Einw. + LUZ ( Mio. Einw.) mit starker Metropolfunktion (Metroindex > 7,5) + LUZ mit wichtigen politischen Funktionen (Politik-Index > 2,5) +LUZ 500T-1M mit Metroindex > 2,5 und Luftlinienentfernung zu bestehendem LUZ > 150 km Perm Ufa Helsinki Sankt-Peterburg Kazan Oslo Stockholm Tallinn Niznij Novgorod Samara Glasgow Edinburgh Göteborg Riga Moskva Lisboa Porto Madrid Bilbao Belfast Cardiff-Bristol London Nantes Zaragoza Valencia Bordeaux Newcastle-u.-T. Dublin Leeds Manchester-Liverpool Sheffield Birmingham Toulouse Barcelona Palma Bruxelles Paris Lille Luxembourg Nürnberg Rhein-Neckar Stuttgart Strasbourg Linz Basel München Zürich Bern Genève Lyon Nice Marseille Torino Milano Arhus Hamburg Bremen Randstad Hannover Berlin Bielefeld Rhein-Ruhr Maas-Rhein Leipzig Frankfurt a. M. Roma Praha Ljubljana Zagreb Venézia-Padova Bologna Kobenhavn-Malmö Nápoli Poznan Warszawa Lodz Bari Gdansk Wroclaw Katowice-Krakow Ostrava Wien-Bratislava Budapest Sarajevo Beograd Tiranë Skopje Vilnius Lviv Sofia Minsk Thessaloniki Bucuresti Kyjiv Chisinau Odesa Istanbul Bursa Saratov Voronez Volgograd Charkiv Donetsk Dnipropetrovsk Rostov-na-Donu Ankara Tbilisi Yerevan Baki Sevilla Málaga Palermo Athina Izmir Konya Adana Gaziantep 10

12 Selecting European connections Triangulation of metropolitian areas (adopted): LUZ mit Triangulation plus Korrekturen 306 metropolitan connections Perm Ufa Helsinki Sankt-Peterburg Kazan Oslo Stockholm Tallinn Niznij Novgorod Samara Glasgow Edinburgh Göteborg Riga Moskva Lisboa Porto Madrid Bilbao Belfast Cardiff-Bristol London Nantes Zaragoza Valencia Bordeaux Newcastle-u.-T. Dublin Leeds Manchester-Liverpool Sheffield Birmingham Toulouse Barcelona Palma Bruxelles Paris Lille Luxembourg Nürnberg Rhein-Neckar Stuttgart Strasbourg Linz Basel München Zürich Bern Genève Lyon Nice Marseille Torino Milano Arhus Hamburg Bremen Randstad Hannover Berlin Bielefeld Rhein-Ruhr Maas-Rhein Leipzig Frankfurt a. M. Roma Praha Ljubljana Zagreb Venézia-Padova Bologna Kobenhavn-Malmö Nápoli Poznan Warszawa Lodz Bari Gdansk Wroclaw Katowice-Krakow Ostrava Wien-Bratislava Budapest Sarajevo Beograd Tiranë Skopje Vilnius Lviv Sofia Minsk Thessaloniki Bucuresti Kyjiv Chisinau Odesa Istanbul Bursa Saratov Voronez Volgograd Charkiv Donetsk Dnipropetrovsk Rostov-na-Donu Ankara Tbilisi Yerevan Baki Sevilla Málaga Palermo Athina Izmir Konya Adana Gaziantep 11

13 Evaluation of connections Evaluation criteria for level of service: Travel time Frequency Number of transfers ( ) Fares Comfort Punctuality 12

14 Fahrthäufigkeit Legende pro Richtung Metropolen und Tag Häufigkeit Anzahl 0 F E D C B A Evaluation: Frequency Basel - Zürich 92 Edinburgh - Glasgow 66 Sheffield - London 53 Rhein-Neckar - Frankfurt 79 Manchester-Liverpool - Leeds 63 Rhein-Ruhr - Bielefeld 52 Bern - Zürich 74 Linz - Wien-Bratislava 60 Manchester-Liverpool - Birmingham 52 Basel - Bern 72 London - Birmingham 56 Bern - Geneve 51

15 Evaluation: Travel Speed (Beeline) Legende V_max Metropolen km/h V-Max 0 0 F 1-25 E D C B A Madrid - Zaragoza 219 Paris - Lille 192 Zaragoza - Barcelona 173 Madrid - Barcelona 202 Madrid - Valencia 191 Málaga - Madrid 172 Paris - Lyon 201 Milano - Bologna 186 Milano - Torino 172 Brüssel - Paris 198 London - Lille 178 Lille - Bruxelles 171 km/h

16 Evaluation: Overall connecting quality 0 F E D C B A Legende Metropolen Verbindungsqualität Wert f v RIN gesamt f v RIN gesamt f v RIN gesamt Basel - Zürich 92 (156) London - Birmingham 56 (184) Rhein-Ruhr - Bielefeld 52 (178) 9235 Rhein-Neckar - Frankfurt 79 (167) Basel - Bern 72 (138) 9904 Manch.-Liv. - Leeds 63 (143) 9033 Bern - Zürich 74 (161) Linz - Wien-Bratisl. 60 (163) 9784 Roma - Bologna 47 (185) 8708 Edinburgh - Glasgow 66 (166) Frankfurt - Rhein-Ruhr 49 (192) 9389 Bruxelles - Maas-Rhein 49 (162) 7957

17 Frequency Cluster very often CH A B UK PL/CZ IT FR very fast C ES D C B A Speed quality (abstract value)

18 Frequency Cluster DE very often CH A B UK PL/CZ IT FR very fast C ES D C B A Speed quality (abstract value)

19 Conclusions The overall aim of a sustainable transport system is to secure individual mobility under fair prices with no damage to the natural environment. There are already good examples and good solutions for a sustainable multimodal local passenger transport system in urban areas. It is much more difficult to identify good examples and good solutions for a sustainable local passenger transport system in rural areas in Europe. Electric (individual) vehicles are likely to play an important role in securing sustainable mobility in rural areas. 18

20 Conclusions Concerning interregional travel the respective environmental strengths and potentials of each transport mode should be made use of. On a regional and inter-regional scale railways are a well established transport mode with comparably little environmental impact. Furthermore between neighbouring metropolises railways are generally highly competitive with all other modes. 19

21 Recommendations Rather promote railways than air travel or coaches. Focus on minimising barriers of interoperabilty. Focus on international lines between major metropolises. Stronger European concept of networks than EU corridors. Don t focus only on speed, also improve frequency. Provide the administrative and financial framework for ordering publicly funded services on long distance railway connections. 20

22 Sources CE Delft (2011): Potential of modal shift to rail transport. Study on the projected effects on GHG emissions and transport volumes. Eelco den Boer, Huib van Essen, Femke Brouwer, Enrico Pastori (TRT), Alessandra Moizo (TRT). Delft, March Gather, Matthias; Lüttmerding, Attila (2013): Level of service on passenger railway connections between European metropolises. = Berichte des Instituts Verkehr und Raum, Bd. 15. Erfurt. te/ivr_bericht_levelofservices_v8.pdf OECD / ITF (2012): Transport Outlook - Seamless Transport for Greener Growth. UBA Umweltbundesamt (2010): CO 2 -Emissionsminderung im Verkehr in Deutschland. Mögliche Maßnahmen und ihre Minderungspotenziale. Ein Sachstandsbericht des Umweltbundesamtes. Texte 05/

23 Forschung Anwendung Wissenstransfer Prof. Dr. Matthias Gather Verkehrspolitik und Raumplanung Prof. Dr. Florian Heinitz Transportwirtschaft Prof. Dr.-Ing. Heinrich H. Kill Verkehrssystemgestaltung Institut Verkehr und Raum Fak. Wirtschaft-Logistik-Verkehr Fachhochschule Erfurt Altonaer Str. 25, D Erfurt Tel. +49 (361)