Fakultätsname XYZ Fachrichtung XYZ Institutsname XYZ, Professur XYZ. CIRES Training School 2011 Mapping Urban Shrinkage

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1 Fakultätsname XYZ Fachrichtung XYZ Institutsname XYZ, Professur XYZ Shrinking Cities in Europe - Problems of Data and Methodes CIRES Training School 2011 Mapping Urban Shrinkage Manuel Wolff Institute of Geography Dresden University of Technology

2 Introduction What is a Shrinking City? The combined effects of deindustrialisation, suburbanisation, post-soviet recomposition and demographic factors have produced a hitherto unknown model for decline. (Oswalt, 2006) Slide 2

3 Introduction What is a Shrinking City? The term shrinking city usually describes a densely populated urban area that has on the one hand faced a population loss in large parts and is on the other hand undergoing economic transformation with some symptoms of a structural crisis. (Shrinking Cities International Research Network) A Shrinking City can be defined as a city that has experienced population loss, employment decline and social problems as symptoms of a structural crisis. (Martinez-Fernandez et al., forthcoming) Slide 3

4 Outline URBAN AUDIT Spatial reference - Indicators Availability National Statistics Spatial reference Indicators Availability Conclusion and final remarkes Slide 4

5 URBAN AUDIT Survey EUROSTAT Slide 5

6 URBAN AUDIT Spatial Reference EUROSTAT RGS-IBG CIRES Training 2011: School: Shrinking Mapping Cities: Urban The Governance Shrinkage of Shrinkage within a European Context Slide 6

7 URBAN AUDIT Spatial Reference Core City EUROSTAT RGS-IBG CIRES Training 2011: School: Shrinking Mapping Cities: Urban The Governance Shrinkage of Shrinkage within a European Context Slide 7

8 URBAN AUDIT Spatial Reference LUZ EUROSTAT RGS-IBG CIRES Training 2011: School: Shrinking Mapping Cities: Urban The Governance Shrinkage of Shrinkage within a European Context Slide 8

9 URBAN AUDIT Spatial Reference SCD EUROSTAT RGS-IBG CIRES Training 2011: School: Shrinking Mapping Cities: Urban The Governance Shrinkage of Shrinkage within a European Context Slide 9

10 URBAN AUDIT Spatial Reference Primarily determination of LUZ Recalculation of LUZ after survey 2004 Carlquist (2006) Slide 10

11 Information Society (14 variables) Culture and Recreation (21 variables) Slide 11 URBAN AUDIT Data Gaps (2004) 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Demography (61 variables) Social Aspects (46 variables) Economic Aspects (78 variables) Civic involvement (21 variables) Training and Education (20 variables) Environment (33 variables) Travel Patterns (27 variables)

12 URBAN AUDIT Available Data (1991, 1996, 2001, 2004) 100% % 60% 40% 20% 0% City LUZ 100% % 60% 40% 20% 0% Slide 12

13 URBAN AUDIT Data Delivery Patterns 2001 Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (2009) London, RGS-IBG 2011: Shrinking Cities: The Governance of Shrinkage within a European Context Slide 13

14 Population Development in City, LUZ and NUTS2 ( ) red/organge = decrease green = increase Slide 14

15 GDP Development in City, LUZ and NUTS2 ( ) red/organge = decrease green = increase Slide 15

16 GDP Development in City, LUZ and NUTS2 ( ) red/organge = decrease green = increase Slide 16

17 URBAN AUDIT: Summary Advantages - Central Database for European Cities - Availabilty of 2 spatial units - Variety of indicators Disadvantages -Longitude analysis is difficult - Data gaps - Lack of metadata National Statistics?? Slide 17

18 National Statistics Spatial reference Time reference Data availabilty and survey methods Slide 18

19 Different operationalization of cities In: Guerois (2003), Source: Eurostat 1991, Le Gléau, Pumain, Saint-Julien (1996) Slide 19

20 Different operationalization of cities Adminstrative city definition Slide 20

21 Different operationalization of cities Functional city definition Slide 21

22 Different operationalization of cities Functional city definition Slide 22

23 Availabilty of Data A CZ ESP FI HU PL PT SE SK TR CH FR SL 1. DEMOGRAPHIE 1.1 Bevölkerung Gesamt k.a. k.a. k.a Altersgruppen k.a. k.a. k.a Qualifikation k.a. k.a. k.a. 1.2 Natürliche Bevölkerungsentwicklung Demography Sterbefälle k.a. k.a. k.a. k.a. k.a Geburten k.a. k.a. k.a Fertilität k.a. k.a. k.a. k.a Durchschnittsalter k.a. k.a. k.a. k.a. 1.3 Räumliche Bevölkerungsentwicklung Migration k.a. k.a. k.a Altersgruppen k.a. k.a. k.a. k.a Qualifikation k.a. k.a. k.a. k.a. 2. ARBEITSMARKT 2.1 Erwerbstätige Gesamt k.a. k.a. k.a. k.a Altersgruppen k.a. k.a. k.a. k.a. k.a Qualifikation k.a. k.a. k.a. k.a. k.a Wirtschaftssektor k.a. k.a. k.a. k.a. 2.2 Erwerbslosigkeit Labor market Gesamt k.a. k.a. k.a Altersgruppen k.a. k.a. k.a. k.a Qualifikation k.a. k.a. k.a. k.a Wirtschaftssektor k.a. k.a. k.a. k.a. k.a. 2.3 Arbeitsplätze Gesamt k.a. k.a. k.a. k.a Wirtschaftssektor k.a. k.a. k.a. k.a. k.a. k.a. 3. WIRTSCHAFT 3.1 Bruttoinlandsprodukt Gesamt k.a. k.a. k.a Wirtschaftssektor k.a. k.a. k.a. k.a. 3.2 Anzahl Unternehmen Economy Gesamt k.a. k.a. k.a. k.a. k.a Wirtschaftssektor k.a. k.a. k.a. k.a. k.a. k.a. 4. SOZIAL 4.1 Haushalte Gesamt k.a. k.a. k.a. k.a Struktur k.a. k.a. k.a. k.a. k.a. 4.2 Einkommen Einkommen pro Person / Haushalt n.a. k.a. k.a. k.a. k.a Kaufkraft pro Person / Haushalt k.a. k.a. k.a. k.a Sozialhilfeempfänger n.a. k.a. k.a. k.a. k.a Relative Armut Social k.a. aspects k.a. n.a. k.a. k.a. k.a. 4.3 Wohnungsmarkt Immobilienwerte /-preise k.a. k.a. k.a. k.a Leerstand k.a. k.a. k.a. k.a. Slide 23

24 National Statistics - Summary different operationalization of cities with different thresholds heterogeneous time-reference of existing data different standards, methods, and variables in some countries poor availability of socio-economic data Slide 24

25 How to combine indicators? Slide 25

26 Combination of indicators? High-low action for sample cities Slide 26

27 Combination of indicators? Demographic types in Germany Source: Bertelsmann Foundation (2006). Slide 27

28 Combination of indicators? Cluster of Shrinking Cities in Portugal Source: Sousa (2010). Slide 28

29 Combination of indicators? Type Cluster of Urban Patterns in France Source: Wolff (2010). Source: IGN - UMR Géographie-Cités Editor: Manuel Wolff Slide 29

30 Combination of indicators???? What Data What Reference How to combine Slide 30

31 Thank you very much for your attention London, RGS-IBG 2011: Shrinking Cities: The Governance of Shrinkage within a European Context Slide 31