Prospects for the German Energiewende and its likely Impact Elsewhere in Europe

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1 Prospects for the German Energiewende and its likely Impact Elsewhere in Europe Miranda A. Schreurs Forschungszentrum für Umweltpolitik Freie Universität Berlin University of Oslo

2 Primary Energy Production in the EU27

4 Carbon Dioxide Emissions

5 German Climate and Renewable Energy Targets 2010 Climate Change Renewables Efficiency GHG (vs. 1990) power Primary energy balance Primary energy power Energy productivity Transport upgrading of buildings % 35% 18% - 20% -10% - 10 % Upgrating the energy performance % 50% 30% - 70 % 65% 45% + 2,1%/a 1% -> 2% by 2020 reduction of heat requirements by 20% % 80% 60% - 50% -25% - 40 % by 2050 reduction of primary energy demands by 80%

Entwicklung der Strombereitstellung aus Biomasseanlagen* in Deutschland 40.000 35.000 30.000 25.000 [GWh] 20.000 15.000 10.000 5.000 0 1.434 1.471 1.558 1.636 1.875 2.013 2.102 2.277 3.260 3.589 4.

8 Entwicklung der Strombereitstellung aus Biomasseanlagen* in Deutschland [GWh] * Feste und flüssige Biomasse, Biogas, Deponie- und Klärgas, biogener Anteil des Abfalls; 1 GWh = 1 Mio. kwh; Quelle: BMU-KI III 1 nach Arbeitsgruppe Erneuerbare Energien-Statistik (AGEE-Stat); Hintergrundbild: BMU / Brigitte Hiss; Stand: März 2012; Angaben vorläufig BMU KI III 1 Erneuerbare Energien in Deutschland

Entwicklung der Strombereitstellung und installierten Leistung von Windenergieanlagen in Deutschland 50.000 45.000 40.000 Stromerzeugung [GWh] installierte Leistung [MW] 29.075 MW 30.000 25.000 35.

9 Entwicklung der Strombereitstellung und installierten Leistung von Windenergieanlagen in Deutschland Stromerzeugung [GWh] installierte Leistung [MW] MW [GWh] StromEinspG: Januar März 2000 Novelle BauGB: November 1997 EEG: April [MW] EEG: August EEG: Januar Quellen: J.P. Molly: "Status der Windenergienutzung in Deutschland, Stand: "; Deutsches Windenergie-Institut (DEWI) und Bundesverband WindEnergie (BWE); Stromerzeugung 2011 auf Grundlage 50Hertz Transmission, Amprion, TenneT TSO, EnBW Transportnetze; StromEinspG: Stromeinspeisungsgesetz; EEG: Erneuerbare-Energien-Gesetz; BauGB: Baugesetzbuch; 1 MW = 1 Mio. Watt; 1 GWh = 1 Mio. kwh; BMU-KI III 1 nach Arbeitsgruppe Erneuerbare Energien-Statistik (AGEE-Stat); Hintergrundbild: BMU / Christoph Edelhoff; Stand: März 2012; Angaben vorläufig BMU KI III 1 Erneuerbare Energien in Deutschland

Entwicklung der Strombereitstellung und installierten Leistung von Photovoltaikanlagen in Deutschland 26.000 24.000 22.000 Energiebereitstellung [GWh] installierte Leistung [MWp] 24.820 MW p 26.

10 Entwicklung der Strombereitstellung und installierten Leistung von Photovoltaikanlagen in Deutschland Energiebereitstellung [GWh] installierte Leistung [MWp] MW p [GWh] [MW p ] Quelle: BMU-KI III 1 nach Arbeitsgruppe Erneuerbare Energien-Statistik (AGEE-Stat); 1 GWh = 1 Mio. kwh; 1 MW = 1 Mio. Watt; Hintergrundbild: BMU / Bernd Müller; Stand: März 2012; Angaben vorläufig BMU KI III 1 Erneuerbare Energien in Deutschland

11 Grafik: B. Burger, Fraunhofer ISE; Daten: Leipziger Strombörse EEX

Investitionen in die Errichtung von Erneuerbare- Energien-Anlagen in Deutschland im Jahr 2011 Investitionen in EE-Anlagen: 22,9 Mrd. Euro Wasserkraft 70 Mio. Euro Biomasse (Wärme) 880 Mio.

12 Investitionen in die Errichtung von Erneuerbare- Energien-Anlagen in Deutschland im Jahr 2011 Investitionen in EE-Anlagen: 22,9 Mrd. Euro Wasserkraft 70 Mio. Euro Biomasse (Wärme) 880 Mio. Euro Geothermie * 960 Mio. Euro Solarthermie Mio. Euro Biomasse (Strom) Mio. Euro Windenergie Photovoltaik Mio. Euro Mio. Euro [Mio. Euro] BMU KI III 1 Erneuerbare Energien in Deutschland * Großanlagen und Wärmepumpen; Abweichungen in den Summen durch Rundungen; 2011 Quelle: BMU-KI III 1 nach Zentrum für Sonnenenergie- und Wasserstoff-Forschung Baden-Württemberg (ZSW); Stand: März 2012; Angaben vorläufig 12

13 EEG Feed in tariff Costs Jahr Feed in Tariff in Mio. Euro (total Volume) ct/kwh , , , , , , , ,3

14 Tarife für freistehende solar PV in DE, ES, FR Quelle: Jacobs 2012

15 n Grid Technology Centralized Decentralized Inter-connectivity

16 The Energy Transition Pumpspeicherkraftwerke Druckluftspeicherkraftwerke 16 16

19 EU 2050 Roadmap for 80-95% CO2 Emission Reduc;on

The European Energy Council of March 2011 Goal for 2050: 80-95 %

20 The European Energy Council of March 2011 Goal for 2050: % emission reduc8on target for 2050 rela8ve to 1990 emission levels.

21 EU Towards a Low Carbon Future: 20, 20, 20 by 2020 n 20% CO2 emission reduction cuts n 20% energy efficiency improvements n 20% renewables in total energy relative to 1990 levels What will it take for Europe go to 30%?

National Renewable Targets for 2020 in total

n Bulgaria 16% n Czech Republic 13% n Denmark

n Greece 18% n Spain 20% n France 23% n Italy

n Luxembourg 11% n Hungary 13% n Malta 10% n

Portugal 31% n Romania 24% n Slovenia 25% n

22 National Renewable Targets for 2020 in total energy mix (increase in renewables of 5.5 % above existing levels & additional increase based on per cap GDP): n Belgium 13% n Bulgaria 16% n Czech Republic 13% n Denmark 30% n Germany 18% n Estonia 25% n Ireland 16% n Greece 18% n Spain 20% n France 23% n Italy 17% n Cyprus 13% n Latvia 40% n Lithuania 23% n Luxembourg 11% n Hungary 13% n Malta 10% n Netherlands 14% n Austria 34% n Poland 15% n Portugal 31% n Romania 24% n Slovenia 25% n Slovak Respublic 14% n Finland 38% n Sweden 49% n United Kingdom 15%

regional authorities, voluntarily committing to increasing energy efficiency

24 Covenant of Mayors: 4,602 mayors: million residents The Covenant of Mayors, a European movement of local and regional authorities, voluntarily committing to increasing energy efficiency and use of renewable energy sources. Aim is to meet and exceed the European Union 20% CO 2 reduction objective by 2020.

100% Renewable Energy Areas in Germany (Actual and Planned) http://www.

25 100% Renewable Energy Areas in Germany (Actual and Planned) Energie-Regionen.jpg

26 100% Renewable Energy Region Conference (Sept 2012 in Kassel) 800 participants

27 Public Acceptance Aug 15, 2012

28 Public Acceptance

30 Public Acceptance n How can public acceptance be achieved? n Is achieving public acceptance the goal? n When and how should the public be engaged in decision making processes? n What methods are there for improving public participation?

31 Dealing with Energy Use and Energy Poverty/Equality n How can the benefits and costs of the Energiewende be more evenly distributed? n How can energy efficiency be improved? n How can energy use be reduced? n How can costs be controlled for low income households?

German Environment Advisory Council n What

32 German Environment Advisory Council n What would a market for a 100% renewable energy system based on fluctuating energy sources look like? n How can a transition to this point be reached? n What kind of new market systems are necessary? n What kind of new governance models are needed?

33 Do we need new organizational structures for an Energie Wende? n More resources for renewable energy research and monitoring n A Cabinet level position or ministry? n A monitoring structure/system? n Systems for improved coordination between Länder, Federal, and European levels?

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