Immobilienfinanzierung und Finanzmarkt

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1 1/26 Immobilienfinanzierung und Finanzmarkt Moritz Schularick Frankfurt 4. Mai 2017 University of Bonn; CEPR and CESIfo

2 2/26 When you combine ignorance and leverage, you get some pretty interesting results. Warren Buffet

3 3/26 Kreditvergabe zum BIP, 17 Volkswirtschaften, Ratio of bank lending to GDP Total loans (new JST series) Commercial bank loans (old ST series) Total loans (BIS data, from 1947)

4 4/26 Wachstum des Finanzsektors, % des BIP 14.00% 12.00% 10.00% 8.00% 6.00% 4.00% 2.00% 0.00% France Germany UK Europe USA Source: Bazot, Financial Consumption and the Cost of Finance: Measuring Financial Efficiency in Europe ( ),

5 5/26 Aufteilung der Gewinne Income from asset management Interest income Source: Greenwood and Scharfstein, The Growth of Modern Finance, Journal of Economic Perspectives,

6 6/26 The Great Mortgaging 17 Volkswirtschaften Ratio of bank lending to GDP Nonmortgage lending Mortgage lending

7 Great Depression27 vs. Great Recession Anteil der Immobilienkredite Real estate and other lending, percent Real of estate total bank and other lending lending, percent of total bank lending AUS CAN DEU ESP FRA ITA NLD PRT USA BEL CHE DNK FIN 1928 GBR JPN NOR SWE AUS CAN DEU ESP 12 FRA ITA NLD PRT USA 7 BEL CHE DNK FIN GBR JPN NOR SWE AUS CAN DEU ESP BEL CHE DNK FIN AUS CAN DEU ESP FRA ITA NLD PRT USA BEL CHE DNK FIN GBR JPN NOR SWE AUS CAN DEU ESP FRA ITA NLD PRT USA BEL CHE DNK FIN 2007 GBR JPN NOR SWE Real estate FRA ITA 1970GBR NLD PRT USA JPN NOR SWE Other /26

8 8/26 Immobilienkredite Ratio of real estate lending to total lending

9 9/26 Unternehmensgeschichte Deutsche Bank

10 10/26 Unternehmensgeschichte Deutsche Bank

11 11/26 Wachstum der Bankkredite zum BIP: (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) Country Total lending Real estate Unsecured Households Business Spain Denmark Australia Great Britain USA* Canada France Finland Belgium Italy Germany Switzerland Japan Average Fraction USA* includes credit market debt

12 12/26 Eigentumsquoten im 20. Jh. CAN GER FRA ITA CHE U.K. U.S. Avg

13 Immobilienpreise Frankreich Source: Knoll, Katharina, Moritz Schularick and Thomas Steger, No Price Like Home: Global House Prices, , American Economic Review /26

14 Immobilienpreise USA Source: Knoll, Katharina, Moritz Schularick and Thomas Steger, No Price Like Home: Global House Prices, , American Economic Review /26

15 Immobilienpreise UK Source: Knoll, Katharina, Moritz Schularick and Thomas Steger, No Price Like Home: Global House Prices, , American Economic Review /26

16 Immobilienpreise Deutschland Source: Knoll, Katharina, Moritz Schularick and Thomas Steger, No Price Like Home: Global House Prices, , American Economic Review /26

17 Globale Immobilienpreise (real) Mean Real House Price Index Median Real House Price Index Note: Index, 1990=100. The years of the two world wars are shown with shading. Source: Knoll, Katharina, Moritz Schularick and Thomas Steger, No Price Like Home: Global House Prices, , American Economic Review /26

18 Hauspreise und Baukosten Source: Knoll, Katharina, Moritz Schularick and Thomas Steger, No Price Like Home: Global House Prices, , American Economic Review /26

19 Landpreise Source: Knoll, Katharina, Moritz Schularick and Thomas Steger, No Price Like Home: Global House Prices, , American Economic Review /26

20 20/26 Aggregierte LtV Loans/Wealth (a) All wealth, (b) Housing wealth, all loans mortgage loans U.S U.K France Germany Average Sources: Piketty and Zucman (2013). Excel tables are available online at Excel Tables for DEU, FRA, USA, GBR, Tables 6f, column (3) national wealth for wealth and column (4) including housing for national housing wealth data on wealth for France refers to Loans refers to total bank loans to the private, non-financial sector. Data on bank loans and mortgages, and data on GDP collected by the authors. Ratios calculated in local currency.

21 21/26 Finanzgeschichte des 20. Jh. Wachstum des Finanzsektors getrieben von Immobilienkrediten: Höhere Eigentumsquoten Höhere Preise Höhere Verschuldung relativ zum Wert der Immobilien

22 23/26 Finanzgeschichte des 20. Jh. Banken haben in immer grösserem Umfang Makrorisiken in ihren Büchern Nicht diversifizierbar und hochkorreliert Ökonomie wird fragiler Makroschocks lösen systemische Finanzkrisen aus:: staatlicher Backstop Eigenkapital spielt so gut wie keine Rolle für die Krisenvermeidung

23 24/26 Eigenkapitalquoten von 1870 bis 2013 Capital ratio (%) Mean Median Min/Max

24 25/26 Eigenkapital und Krisen Crisis probability More capital Less capital

25 26/26