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1 S Sicherheit und Frieden FSecurity and Peace Herausgeber: Prof. Dr. Michael Brzoska Dr. Walter E. Feichtinger Dr. Volker Franke Prof. Dr. Hans J. Giessmann Prof. Dr. Heiner Hänggi Dr. Axel Krohn Dr. Patricia Schneider Themenschwerpunkt: Sicherheitsaspekte zukünftiger Rohstoffversorgung Security Aspects of Future Resource Supply Energy Transition and Security of Supply: OECD Countries Edgard Gnansounou Obama s Toughest Challenge Michael T. Klare 4 ISSN Jahrgang X Nomos Die Ressourcensicherung von NATO und EU Thomas Roithner Die geopolitische Dimension der Ressourcensicherheit eine wachsende Herausforderung für Deutschland und Europa Heinrich Kreft Präventive Ressourcensicherungspolitik. Initiativen und Anforderungen an ein Global Governance-System Raimund Bleischwitz What s Mine is Mine, What s Yours is Negotiable : Self- Sufficiency versus Interdependence in Energy Strategy Alyson J. K. Bailes Weitere Beiträge von... Sven Chojnacki, Maurice Herchenbach und Gregor Reisch, Thomas Horlohe, Laura Ryseck und Margret Johannsen, Knut Ipsen

2 I m p r e s s u m I n h a lt Schriftleitung: Prof. Dr. Michael Brzoska Redaktion: Dr. Martin Kahl (V.i.S.d.P.) Dr. Regina Heller Sybille Reinke de Buitrago Susanne Bund Redaktionsanschrift: S+F c/o IFSH, Beim Schlump 83, D Hamburg Tel Fax Website: Druck und Verlag: Nomos Verlagsgesellschaft mbh & Co. KG, Waldseestr. 3-5, D Baden-Baden, Tel , Fax Anzeigenverwaltung und Anzeigenannahme: Sales friendly Bettina Roos, Siegburger Straße 123, Bonn, Tel , Fax , Die Zeitschrift, sowie alle in ihr enthaltenen einzelnen Beiträge und Abbildungen sind urheberrechtlich geschützt. Jede Verwertung, die nicht ausdrücklich vom Urheberrechtsgesetz zugelassen ist, bedarf der vorherigen Zustimmung des Verlags. Namentlich gekennzeichnete Artikel müssen nicht die Meinung der Herausgeber/ Redaktion wiedergeben. Unverlangt eingesandte Manuskripte für die keine Haftung übernommen wird gelten als Veröffentlichungsvorschlag zu den Bedingungen des Verlages. Es werden nur unveröffentlichte Originalarbeiten angenommen. Die Verfasser erklären sich mit einer nicht sinnentstellenden redaktionellen Bearbeitung einverstanden. Erscheinungsweise: vierteljährlich Bezugspreis 2009: jährlich 76,, Einzelheft 21,, Jahresabonnement für Studenten 55, (gegen Nachweis). Alle Preise verstehen sich inkl. MwSt. zzgl. Versandkosten; Bestellungen nehmen entgegen: Der Buchhandel und der Verlag; Kündigung: Drei Monate vor Kalenderjahresende. Zahlungen jeweils im Voraus an: Nomos Verlagsgesellschaft, Postbank Karlsruhe, Konto (BLZ ) und Stadtsparkasse Baden-Baden, Konto (Blz ). I issn X Dieser Ausgabe liegt ein Prospekt der Nomos Verlagsgesellschaft bei. Wir bitten freundlichst um Beachtung. Editorial III Themenschwerpunkt Sicherheitsaspekte zukünftiger Rohstoffversorgung Security Aspects of Future Resource Supply Energy Transition and Security of Supply: OECD Countries Edgard Gnansounou Obama s Toughest Challenge Michael T. Klare Die Ressourcensicherung von NATO und EU Thomas Roithner Die geopolitische Dimension der Ressourcensicherheit eine wachsende Herausforderung für Deutschland und Europa Heinrich Kreft Präventive Ressourcensicherungspolitik. Initiativen und Anforderungen an ein Global Governance-System Raimund Bleischwitz What's Mine is Mine, What s Yours is Negotiable : Self-Sufficiency versus Interdependence in Energy Strategy Alyson J. K. Bailes BEITRÄGE AUS SICHERHEITSPOLITIK UND F R I E D E N S F O R S C H U N G Perspectives on War: Disentangling Distinct Phenomena: Wars and Military Interventions, Sven Chojnacki, Maurice Herchenbach und Gregor Reisch Die neue US-Strategie für Afghanistan und Pakistan Thomas Horlohe UNRWA: Challenges for Humanitarian Aid in an Increasingly Sensitive Political Environment Laura Ryseck und Margret Johannsen Verteidigung: Neue Dimensionen eines Völkerrechts- und Verfassungsbegriffs? Dieter S. Lutz-Vorlesung Knut Ipsen TAGUNGSBERICHT NEUERSCHEINUNGEN Dieses Heft wurde aus Mitteln der Deutschen Stiftung Friedensforschung gefördert. S + F Security and Peace Sicherheit und Frieden 27. Jahrgang, S /2009 ANNOTATIONEN BESPRECHUNGEN S+F (27. Jg.) 4/2009

3 S+F lädt Autorinnen und Autoren zur Einsendung von Beiträgen zur Veröffentlichung ein S+F ist die führende deutsche Fachzeitschrift für Friedensforschung und Sicherheitspolitik. S+F will Forum der Kommunikation für Wissenschaft und Politik, zwischen ziviler Gesellschaft und Streitkräften sein, in dem Analyse, Insiderbericht, Standortbestimmung und Einschätzung Platz haben. Entscheidend für die Veröffentlichung ist der Beitrag eines Textes zu nationalen und internationalen Diskussionen in der Sicherheitspolitik und Friedensforschung, von naturwissenschaftlichen Aspekten der Rüstungskontrolle bis zu Fragen der Nationenbildung in Nachkriegsgesellschaften. Jedes Heft von S+F ist einem Schwerpunktthema gewidmet. Neben Beiträgen zum Schwerpunkt werden aber auch Texte zu allgemeinen Themen der Sicherheitspolitik und Friedensforschung veröffentlicht. Autorinnen und Autoren haben die Wahl zwischen Beurteilung der Texte durch Herausgeber und Redaktion oder einem zusätzlichen Begutachtungsverfahren mit externen Gutachtern (peer-reviewed, anonymisiert). Dieses Verfahren nimmt mehr Zeit in Anspruch (zur Erstellung der Gutachten, für die Überarbeitung etc.). S+F strebt an, den Anteil der extern referierten Aufsätze zu erhöhen, wird aber auch weiterhin Texte veröffentlichen, deren Qualität von der Redaktion und dem für ein Heft verantwortlichen Herausgeber beurteilt wurde. Die nachfolgend angegebenen Deadlines gelten für die Einreichung von Beiträgen im Rahmen der jeweiligen Schwerpunktthemen. Aufsätze zu Themen außerhalb der Schwerpunkte können jederzeit eingereicht werden. Call for papers/ Herausgeber und Redaktion rufen zur Einsendung von Beiträgen auf Folgende Schwerpunktthemen sind für die nächsten Hefte von S+F vorgesehen: 3/2010: Europäisierung vs. Renationalisierung von Sicherheit, Deadline 15. 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Authors can choose to have the text evaluated by the publisher and editorial team or by an external evaluation process (double-blind peer-review), the latter is more time intensive (for the evaluation process, revision, etc.). S+F intends to increase the number of externally evaluated contributions but will continue to publish texts which have been assessed by the editorial team and the publisher responsible for the issue. The deadlines listed below are for contributions for a specific theme. Contributions on other topics can be made at any time. Call for Papers/ Publisher and editorial team call for contributions The next issues of S+F will have the following themes: 3/2010: Europeanization vs. Re-nationalization of Security, Deadline 15 February /2010: Intelligence and Human Rights, Deadline 01 June /2011: Conflicts in Asia: Regional and Transnational Dimensions, Deadline 31 August 2010 Texts may be written in English or German and should be between 25,000-30,000 characters long (incl. spaces). Further information for authors can be found on the magazine website under Notes to Authors. Please direct your queries to: Website: Articles of the journal S+F are entered in various national and international bibliographic databases. Among them are Online Contents OLC-SSG Politikwissenschaft und Friedensforschung (Political Science and Peace Research), PAIS (Public Affairs Information Service) International Database, Worldwide Political Science Abstracts and World Affairs Online (by the Fachinformationsverbund Internationale Beziehungen und Länderkunde FIV / The German Information Network International Relations and Area Studies) (see also II S+F (27. Jg.) 4/2009

4 Sicherheitsaspekte zukünftiger Rohstoffversorgung E D I T O R I A L Es ist historisch gesehen nichts Neues, die Versorgung mit Rohstoffen, die im eigenen Land nicht ausreichend vorhanden sind, als ein zentrales sicherheitspolitisches Problem anzusehen. Insbesondere hochindustrialisierte Gesellschaften und ihre Ökonomien sind in hohem Maße von Rohstoffimporten abhängig. Ereignisse wie der Irakkrieg 2003 oder der Gasstreit zwischen der Ukraine und Russland bewirken, dass das Thema Ressourcenversorgung auf der tagespolitischen Agenda bleibt. Auch scheinbar rein ökonomische Fragen wie die Trassenführung von Gaspipelines Stichwort: Nabucco versus Southstream werden vornehmlich unter sicherheitspolitischen Aspekten wie etwa der Verlässlichkeit des Zuflusses von Gas nach Europa diskutiert. Die Frage, wie die Sicherheit der Rohstoffversorgung am besten zu gewährleisten ist, hat viele Seiten: von der Reduzierung der Importabhängigkeit über die Lage in den Produzentenländern bis hin zu Maßnahmen, einschließlich militärischen, die den Zugang zu Rohstoffquellen sichern. Die Beiträge in diesem Heft können nur ausgewählte Aspekte dieses vielschichtigen Themas behandeln. Im Zentrum steht dabei allerdings stets die Frage, wie in Zukunft die Sicherheit der Rohstoffversorgung gewährleistet oder sogar verbessert werden kann. Edgard Gnansounou, Experte für ökonomische und technische Fragen der Energieversorgung, diskutiert in seinem Beitrag die zukünftige Energieversorgung auf der Grundlage von Prognosen der Internationalen Energieagentur (IEA). Dabei arbeitet er die Problematik sowohl unter dem Aspekt der Versorgungssicherheit als auch der Eindämmung von Folgewirkungen des Klimawandels heraus. Vorgestellt wird ein vom ihm entwickelter Indikator für das Potenzial der Industrieländer (OECD-Mitgliedstaaten) im Umgang mit Problemen der Versorgungssicherheit. Dieser Indikator führt ihn zu dem Schluss, dass radikale Veränderungen in der Struktur der Energieversorgung notwendig sind und erneuerbare Energien hierbei einen zentralen Platz einnehmen müssen. Auf der gleichen Grundlage argumentiert Michael Klare, Autor des Buches Blut und Öl. Dort stellt er die These auf, das wir in Zukunft häufiger Kriege zu erwarten haben, in denen es um Rohstoffe und deren Verteilung gehen wird, sollte es nicht zu einer strukturellen Änderung der Energiepolitik kommen. In seinem Beitrag für Sicherheit und Frieden knüpft er an diese These an, indem er die ersten Schritte der Regierung Obama in der Energiepolitik untersucht. Obwohl er bei der neuen US- Administration einen erkennbaren Willen zu Veränderungen diagnostiziert, ist seine Bilanz insgesamt eher ernüchternd. Was geschieht, wenn die Wende in der Energiepolitik ausbleibt? Werden Auseinandersetzungen über die Öl- und Gasversorgung zunehmen? Thomas Roithner argumentiert in seinem Beitrag, dass die NATO und die Europäische Union (EU) bereit und in der Lage wären, die Energieversorgung im Zweifelsfall auch mit militärischen Mitteln zu erzwingen. Anhand der Analyse einschlägiger Dokumente kommt er zu dem Schluss, dass es sich hierbei nicht nur um abstrakte Gedankenspiele handelt. Vielmehr hat die militärische Option bereits Eingang in die Strategiekonzepte dieser beiden internationalen Organisationen gefunden. Energierohstoffe mögen in der öffentlichen und politischen Wahrnehmung zum Thema Versorgungssicherheit von besonderer Bedeutung sein, tatsächlich sind sie aber nur ein Teil eines ganzen Problemkomplexes. Dies führt uns Heinrich Kreft vor Augen. Er beleuchtet in seinem Beitrag die Bedeutung mineralischer Rohstoffe für die Bundesrepublik Deutschland. Einige dieser Rohstoffe sind insbesondere für die deutsche Wirtschaft unerlässlich. Um die Sicherheit zukünftiger Versorgung zu gewährleisten, empfiehlt er einen umfassenden Politikansatz, der Aktivitäten wirtschaftlicher und politischer Akteure auf nationaler, europäischer und globale Ebene miteinander verzahnt. In dem Beitrag von Helmut Bleischwitz werden zwei internationale Aspekte der zukünftigen Sicherheit der Rohstoffversorgung weiter ausgeführt, die auch Heinrich Kreft zuvor betont hatte: Zum einen geht es um das Problem des Ressourcenfluchs. Viele Länder, die über umfangreiche Rohstoffvorkommen verfügen, sind dennoch besonders arm und instabil. Der Beitrag zeigt zum zweiten, dass dieser Fluch nicht unabänderlich ist, sondern dass arme Staaten durchaus von ihrem Rohstoffreichtum profitieren können. Dazu bedarf es allerdings geeigneter Rahmenbedingungen. Der Beitrag zeigt dies am Modell eines weltweiten Systems von Regeln und Institutionen, das vom Autor und seinen Kollegen entwickelt worden ist. Dieses System kann sowohl zu mehr Versorgungssicherheit als auch zu einer höheren Entwicklung in den Produzentenländern führen. Alyson Bailes stellt schließlich im ihrem Beitrag die grundsätzliche Frage, ob das Bemühen um einen Abbau von Versorgungsabhängigkeit von außen nicht der falsche sicherheitspolitische Ansatz ist. Sie argumentiert, dass die gegenseitige wirtschaftliche Abhängigkeit eine gute Grundlage auch für politische Kooperation darstellt. Das Streben nach Autarkie nehme hingegen der internationalen Politik diesen wichtigen Anreiz zur Zusammenarbeit. Sie empfiehlt einen anderen Blick auf das Problem der Rohstoffversorgung einen, der nicht von nationalen Interessen, sondern von der Ausstrahlung eines gemeinsamen wirtschaftlichen Nutzens auf weltpolitische Probleme angeleitet ist. Außerhalb des Themenschwerpunkts beschäftigen sich Sven Chojnacki, Maurice Herchenbach und Gregor Reisch in der Reihe Perspectives on War mit der Problematik militärischer Interventionen. Thomas Horlohe analysiert kritisch die neue Strategie der Regierung Obama für Afghanistan und Pakistan. Laura Ryseck und Margret Johannsen diskutieren in ihrem Beitrag das schwierige Umfeld, in der die United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UN RWA) ihre Aufgabe zu erfüllen versucht. Knut Ipsen zeichnet in seinem Beitrag, der die jährliche Dieter S. Lutz-Vorlesung am IFSH dokumentiert, die gegenwärtige völkerrechtliche und verfassungsrechtliche Debatte über den Begriff der Verteidigung nach und mahnt zu einem sorgsamen Umgang mit diesem Begriff. Michael Brzoska S+F (27. Jg.) 4/2009 III

5 E D I T O R I A L Security Aspects of Future Resource Supply There is a long history of viewing the supply of resources from foreign lands as a central security problem. Highly-industrialized societies and their economies in particular are crucially dependent on the imports of raw materials. Events such as the Iraq War of 2003 or the gas conflict between the Ukraine and Russia keep resources on the agenda of current security policy. Even seemingly purely economic questions, such as the location of pipelines Nabucco versus Southstream are primarily discussed form the angle of gas supply security to Europe. The question of how best to secure the supply of resources has many faces: from the reduction of import dependency to the situation in producer countries to measures, including military ones, to secure the access to raw material sources. The contributions in this volume can only address select aspects of this multidimensional topic. They all, however, are concerned with the question of how resource security can be maintained or even improved in the future. Edgard Gnansounou, expert for economic and technical aspects of energy production, discusses, in his contribution, future energy supply on the basis of prognosis by the international Energy Agency (IEA). He analyses possible future paths of energy production both from the point of view of supply security and of effects on climate change. He presents an indicator, developed by himself, for the potential of industrialized countries (OECD member states) to deal with security of supply issues. This indicator points to the conclusion that radical change in the structure of energy supply is necessary and that renewable energy will need to assume a central place. Michael Klare, author of the book Blood and Oil, argues on the basis of a similar assessment of the situation. In that book he presents evidence for the thesis that the future will bring more wars over resources and their distribution, unless there are major changes in energy policy. In his contribution for this volume he builds on this thesis by analysing the first steps of the Obama administration in energy policy. While he acknowledges the noticeable good intentions, the analysis of actual change in US energy policy so far is rather sobering. What happens without a fundamental change in energy policy? Will conflict over oil and gas supply increase? Thomas Roithner argues in his contribution that NATO and the European Union (EU) are ready and prepared to secure energy with military means, if they judge it to be necessary. On the basis of the analysis of relevant documents, he comes to the conclusion that there are not only such ideas and plans. He finds that the military option is already part of the strategic concepts of the two international organisations. Energy resources are often seen in the general public as well as by politicians as a particularly important aspect of resource security. In fact, however, they are only part of a larger complex of problems. This is illustrated in the contribution by Heinrich Kreft. He highlights the importance of mineral resources for Germany. Some of these resources are indispensable for the German economy. Kreft recommends a comprehensive policy in order to secure future supply, in which economic and political actors on the national, European and global scale closely collaborate. Helmut Bleischwitz further expands two international aspects of future resource security which are also emphasized by Heinrich Kreft. The first is the resource curse. Many countries with a wealth of resources are poor and instable. Secondly, however, the contribution demonstrates that this is not inevitable. Poor states can profit from mineral wealth, if conditions are right. The author presents a model of global rules and institutions, which he developed with colleagues. This can provide both for more security of supply and development in producer countries. Alyson Bailes finally asks the fundamental question, whether efforts to reduce dependence on resource supply are not counterproductive from a security policy point of view. She argues that economic interdependence is a good foundation for political cooperation. The quest for autarchy, on the other hand, takes away an important incentive for cooperation in international politics. She recommends a different view on the problem of resource security, one which is not marked by national interests, but rather by the effects of common economic benefit regarding global problems. Outside of the theme of this edition of the journal, Sven Chojnacki, Maurice Herchenbach and Gregeor Reisch highlight, in the annual contribution on Perspectives on War, the problematique of military interventions. Thomas Horlohe critically analyses the new strategy of the Obama administration for Afghanistan and Pakistan. Laura Ryseck and Margret Johannsen discuss the difficult environment in which the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA) is operating. Knut Ipsen recounts, in his contribution, which is based on the annual Dieter S. Lutz lecture, the current debate on the concept of defence in international public law and in German constitutional law, recommending to use it with considerable care. Michael Brzoska IV S+F (27. Jg.) 4/2009

6 S+F Sicherheit und Frieden Security and Peace Jahrgang S Herausgeber Prof. Dr. Michael Brzoska, Institut für Friedensforschung und Sicherheitspolitik an der Universität Hamburg (IFSH) Dr. Walter E. Feichtinger, Landesverteidigungsakademie, Institut für Friedenssicherung und Konfliktmanagement, Wien Dr. Volker Franke, Kennesaw State University, Kennesaw, Georgia (USA) Prof. Dr. Hans J.Giessmann, Berghof Forschungszentrum für konstruktive Konfliktbearbeitung, Berlin Prof. Dr. Heiner Hänggi, Genfer Zentrum für die demokratische Kontrolle der Streitkräfte (DCAF), Genf Dr. Axel Krohn, Führungsakademie der Bundeswehr, Hamburg Dr. Patricia Schneider, IFSH Schriftleitung Prof. Dr. Michael Brzoska Redaktion Dr. Martin Kahl (V.i.S.d.P.), IFSH Dr. Regina Heller Sybille Reinke de Buitrago Susanne Bund Beirat Prof. Dr. Alyson J.K. Bailes, University of Iceland, Reykjavik Dr. Detlef Bald, München Prof. Dr. Joachim Betz, GIGA, Institut für Asienstudien, Hamburg Prof. Dr. Hans-Peter Dürr, Träger des Alternativen Nobelpreises, München Prof. Dr. Pál Dunay, Genfer Zentrum für Sicherheitspolitik (GCSP) Dr. Sabine Jaberg, Führungsakademie der Bundeswehr, Hamburg Prof. Dr. Charles A. Kupchan, Georgetown University, Washington, D.C. Dr. Martin Kutz, Hamburg Prof. Dr. Krzysztof Ruchniewicz, Historisches Institut, Universität Wroclaw Prof. Dr. Susanne Feske, Universität Münster Dr. Martina Fischer, Berghof Forschungszentrum für Konstruktive Konfliktbearbeitung, Berlin Prof. Dr. Sabine von Schorlemer, TU Dresden Bates Gill, PhD, SIPRI, Stockholm Prof. Ljubica Jelusic, Universität Ljubljana, Slowenien Energy Transition and Security of Supply: OECD Countries Edgard Gnansounou* Abstract: For many decades, the production of industrial goods was concentrated in the Northern hemisphere, while energy resources were abundantly available in a limited number of developing countries and those with centrally planned economies. In this context, the security of energy supply was mainly understood as a secure procurement of cheap energy resources to the industrialised world. Military forces have been constantly upgraded and deployed to ensure geopolitical interests, including the control of energy resources. Nowadays, the depletion of oil and gas reserves, the growing concerns about global climate change along with the emergence of new energy demand centres in South and East Asia and the continuing political tensions in several major energy-exporting and -transit countries raise the question of possible alternative strategies to safeguard global energy security. It is vital to change the old paradigm. But what could be the new paradigm? This paper attempts to contribute to this debate. Keywords: Energieverbrauch, Verwundbarkeit, Öl, erneuerbare Ressourcen Energy use, vulnerability, oil, renewable resources T H E M E N S C H W E R P U N K T 1. Introduction The security of energy supply involves short-, medium- and long-term issues. In the short term, one of the main problems is related to the economic risks caused by highly volatile energy prices. A balanced portfolio of spot, bilateral and derivatives contracts, as well as other market-oriented risk management instruments can be used to alleviate these risks. In the medium term, there exists the possibility to adjust bilateral contracts, * Edgard Gnansonou (Ph.D. in Sciences techniques) is a lecturer in energy planning and head of the Laboratory of Energy Systems LASEN at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Lausanne. The author is grateful to Mr. Denis Bednyagin for his valuable suggestions. especially with the aim to diversify the origins and amounts of energy imports; however, little can be done to change overall energy supply patterns. A sustained change of the whole energy demand and supply system, while potentially offering more options, is more difficult to implement. In this paper, the security of energy supply is analysed in a long-term perspective, focusing on the OECD countries and on the necessity of transition from the present state to a global future where the share of oil in energy consumption is significantly reduced. It is argued that the current energy security paradigm should be changed for a vision of secure long-term energy supply. Such a new and peaceful paradigm of energy supply security is needed in order to avoid a frightening collapse. S+F (27. Jg.) 4/

7 T H E M E N S C H W E R P U N K T Gnansounou, Energy transition and security of supply: OECD countries 2. Challenges of energy transition 2.1 World total primary energy supply According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), the world total primary energy supply (TPES) amounted to 11.7 giga tons of oil equivalent (toe) in 2007 (1.8 toe per capita). In the IEA reference scenario (Figure 1), the world primary energy demand rises by 1.6 % annually during the period , significantly above population growth (1 % per year). The share of non-renewable energy (85 %) and the contribution of fossil sources (81%) remain almost the same until Oil continues to be most important, followed by coal and natural gas. Coal demand grows faster than that of other fuels due to its dominant share in electricity generation. The share of natural gas in electric power generation also increases fast, even though its contribution to the global energy demand grows slowly. Figure 1: Projected Structure of World Total Primary Energy Supply Source: IEA, World Energy Outlook Edition. International Energy Agency, Paris, With 18 % of the world population, but 76 % of the Gross World Product (GWP), the OECD countries were the highest energy consumer (47 % of the world Total Primary Energy Supply, TPES) in However, in the long term non-oecd regions will overtake OECD countries in economic growth, leading to an increased share of energy demand outside of today s industrialised countries. According to the IEA reference scenario, non-oecd countries account for 87 % of the incremental primary energy demand from 2006 to 2030 (more than 50 % solely for China and India); the Middle Eastern countries will also become an important energy demand centre. Accordingly, the main challenge for the energy security of industrialised countries in the coming decades is the loss of their present consumers market power position to emerging IEA, Energy Balances of OECD countries Edition. International Energy Agency, Paris, IEA, World Energy Outlook Edition. International Energy Agency, Paris, economies, such as China, and the rise of other energy demand centres which will deeply change global energy geopolitics. 2.2 Regional energy dependency Due to the increase of energy demand in energy-producing countries, along with the progressive scarcity of proven oil and gas reserves and eventual under-investment in energy supply, infrastructures will inevitably change the world energy trade patterns. Accordingly, this will result in a declining number of energy-exporting countries and a larger number of net energy importers. This situation, accentuated by the risk of the formation of new oil and gas cartels, is prone to augment the strain on energy supply worldwide. It can be expected that the energy vulnerability of European OECD countries will be particularly increased. According to the IEA 3, the total world demand for oil is projected to rise by 1% per year mostly due to emerging economiess, especially India (3. % / year) and China (3.5 % / year). Meanwhile, the share of OECD countries in global oil demand is expected to decrease from 57 % in 2007 to 43 % in In the reference scenario, the oil import dependency of OECD countries decreases from 58 % in 2007 to 53 % in 2030 mainly due to OECD-North America, where it drops from 44 % in 2007 to 25 % in 2030, thanks to the exploitation of Canadian non-conventional sources of oil. Conversely, oil import dependency of OECD-Europe increases from 65 % in 2007 to 83 % in The case of OECD-Pacific does not significantly improve with almost 2 % oil import dependency in 2007 and 0 % in The situation of OECD-Europe is worsened by the increase of the transport s share in the primary oil demand, from 53 % in 2006 to 58 % in The world demand for coal grows faster than other fuels with a 2% annual growth mainly driven by electric power generation. While OECD-North America and OECD-Pacific are selfsufficient in coal, the dependency of OECD-Europe increases from 42 % to 50 %. However, the share of coal in the primary energy demand of OECD-Europe falls from 18 % in 2007 to 15% in 2030, contrary to natural gas, which increases its share from 24 % in 2006 to 2 % in The OECD dependency on external natural gas increases from 24 % in 2006 to 41 % in 2030 with a highest dependency for OECD-Europe (2006: 44 %; 2030: 6 %). 2.3 Energy scarcity According to the IEA reference scenario, the production of conventional crude oil and natural gas liquids will level off by 2030, and the increase in non-conventional oil output will be needed for meeting the world oil demand. Although natural gas resources are expected to be adequate for demand, they will be concentrated in a very limited number of countries. Proven reserves of coal are considered to be available worldwide. Meanwhile, several points should be mentioned: more resources 3 IEA, World Energy Outlook Edition. International Energy Agency, Paris, S+F (27. Jg.) 4/2009

8 Gnansounou, Energy transition and security of supply: OECD countries T H E M E N S C H W E R P U N K T will be consumed in the energy-producing regions due to the industrialization of these countries; the strain on fossil fuels will be more and more severe due to a larger number of net energy-importing countries. The correlations between the prices of different fuels will grow due to their substitutability. If fossil fuels are not rapidly substituted by renewable energy, the world economy can continue to experience boom and bust cycles of energy prices, where low GDP growth and moderate energy prices will alternate with economic expansion and high energy prices. The most frightening risk resides in the potential spread of political confrontations and armed conflicts over energy procurement. However, the costs of such a strategy of violence are much higher than those of the alternative strategies of relying on goodwill, innovation and promotion of renewable energy. 2.4 Global warming Due to the increasing concerns about global warming and climate change, the public opinion is expected to become more and more sensitive to the costs of negative externality effects caused by the emission of greenhouse gases. While the reference scenario of IEA depicts a business-as-usual projection, other scenarios limiting CO 2 -equivalent concentration to 550 ppm (parts per million) or even 450 ppm lead to more demanding changes of the present energy supply system. The difference compared to the reference scenario consists in a wide-scale adoption of public policies aimed at increasing energy efficiency, especially in the construction and electricity sectors, as well as the promotion of fuel substitution in power generation and transportation. There is a significant uncertainty regarding the potential impacts of these policy measures on economic growth, energy and carbon prices. In comparison with the IEA reference scenario, the 450 ppm policy scenario leads to a 16 % reduction in world primary energy demand in 2030, a 51% reduction of coal demand, a 16 % and 20 % decrease respectively of oil and gas demand; and conversely 51 %, 34 %, 28 % and 5 % increases respectively of nuclear energy as well as hydro, biomass and other renewable energy. One of the possible spillovers of such an environmental policy might be the improvement of security of energy supply due to a decrease of energy imports in absolute and in relative quantities. Furthermore, the levelling of international energy prices due to a relaxation of the strain on fossil resources would contribute to a steady economic growth, particularly in less industrialised countries. However, because of limited geographical availability, inferior technical performance and higher costs of renewable energy, such a strategy includes a significant share of nuclear energy, which in turn requires a high reliability of nuclear power plants in all countries, a strong international regulation in order to avoid nuclear proliferation and a high level of social acceptance of peaceful nuclear use. For the moment, these conditions are not totally fulfilled in all OECD countries. 3. Vulnerability of energy supply in OECD countries 3.1 Benchmarking In order to ensure security of their energy supply in the long term, the OECD countries have the choice of either following an autarchical strategy or contributing through international fair governance to the promotion of a secure energy trade. The former orientation consists in developing even more expensive renewable energy resources; the latter relies on secure energy imports and maintaining the required peaceful international environment. However, peace is a challenge to all parties and it is never certain. Therefore, developing a resilient energy supply system with a larger proportion of indigenous, renewable energy resources and, at the same time, promoting sustainable international energy trade may be a good policy. In order to perform a benchmark assessment of the energy supply security of selected OECD countries, a vulnerability index was built based on five distinct dimensions 4 : Energy intensity of the Gross Domestic Product - GDP (X 1 ); Energy import dependency (X 2 ); Ratio of energy-related CO 2 emissions to Total Primary Energy Supply - TPES (X 3 ); Electricity supply vulnerability (X 4 ); Non diversity in transport fuels (X 5 ). X 1 is supposed to give an indication of the efficient use of energy to produce goods and services. However, several factors are hidden in this dimension. For less industrialised countries, low energy intensity could indicate the preeminence of low diffusion of energy-consuming technology. Furthermore, the energy embodied in imported goods is not accounted for in the statistics, i.e. substitution of inland production of goods by importation may result in improvement of X 1. X 2 is limited to oil and natural gas imports in this benchmarking exercise because these fuels are the most challenging. As far as energy vulnerability is concerned, the values of positive net exports are not considered, inasmuch as a high reliance on energy export may cause economic vulnerability, i.e. the Dutch disease. X 3 is supposed to show the environmental dimension of energy use. However, only a limited aspect of that dimension is represented. Local impacts on conversion sites, such as in the case of Canadian oil sands, may induce significant environmental burdens. X 4 mainly denotes self-sufficiency in electricity coupled with a well balanced electricity generation mix. Thus, electricity net importing countries get low scores. The same is true, to a lesser extent, for countries with a high share of risky electricity options, e.g. nuclear power. X 5 rewards efforts for diversifying the energy mix in the transport sector. The variability within the countries is not expected to be high on this dimension for the base year. However, in the future, variability may increase depending on the countries strategy of introducing alternative fuels in transport. 4 See Edgard Gnansounou, Assessing the energy vulnerability: Case of industrialised countries. Energy Policy 36 (2008), S+F (27. Jg.) 4/

9 T H E M E N S C H W E R P U N K T Gnansounou, Energy transition and security of supply: OECD countries Figure 2: Energy Vulnerability Rating Source: Edgard Gnansounou E., Assessing the energy vulnerability: Case of industrialised countries. Energy Policy 36 (2008), For each dimension i, a relative indicator I i was estimated that was finally used to compute a composite index I 5. The relative indicator of X 1 is estimated by using a scaling technique where the minimum value is set to 0 and the maximum to 1. The energy import dependency is estimated in relation to oil and gas net import. Net exports are set or adjusted to zero. The net import ratio to TPES is then adapted by taking into account the concentration factors in oil and gas import origins and geopolitical factors. The ratio of energy-related CO 2 emissions to the total primary energy supply is scaled in the same way as X 1. The electricity supply vulnerability is defined in terms of three sub-dimensions: the net import of electricity; the concentration and risk of non-acceptance by the public of a chosen dominant technology of electricity generation; and the non diversification of an electricity generation. The indicator of non-diversity in transport fuels is derived from the Shannon-Wiener diversity index (originally developed to measure bio-diversity). Finally, a composite index of vulnerability was computed as a function of these relative indicators using the following method: (1) The composite index was defined as the Euclidian distance (ED) to the best energy vulnerability case represented by the zero point. 5 The details of the mathematical formulae are given in Gnansounou (note 5). (2) When the relative indicators are significantly correlated, the ED is estimated in the orthogonal system defined by the principal components. (3) The ED is standardised in order to get a value between 0 and 1. This energy vulnerability index (I) was estimated for the year 2003 for 37 industrialised countries. As Figure 2 shows, Cyprus (0.74 ) and Canada (0.43 ) were found to have the highest and the lowest vulnerability respectively. The mean value and standard deviation of the composite index of vulnerability were and 0.080, respectively. 3.2 Discussion of selected country cases In order to illustrate the concept of vulnerability proposed in this paper and to point out its limits, the cases of six countries are discussed (Figure 3). These cases also highlight the sensitivity of the composite index to indicator variations as well as the influence of geopolitical factors. With regard to the composite index, Canada is the least vulnerable among all 37 countries analysed. The strength of this country is in I 2 and to a lesser extent in I 4. Canada is a net energy exporter. Three deposits provide the core of Canadian oil production: the Western Canada sedimentary basin (WCSB), the oil sands deposits of Northern Alberta 212 S+F (27. Jg.) 4/2009

10 Gnansounou, Energy transition and security of supply: OECD countries T H E M E N S C H W E R P U N K T Figure 3: Energy Vulnerability Indicators of Selected Countries The figures 1 to 5 correspond to the five dimensions discussed in the text. and the offshore fields in the Atlantic Ocean. The WCSB also provides most of the natural gas production (EIA, 2007). In 2003, the net exports of oil and gas of Canada amounted to 4.32 Mtoe and Mtoe respectively. Over % of the total oil and gas exports of Canada were for the U.S. However, the fact that Canada is considered to be independent for its supply of oil should be interpreted with caution. Although being a net oil exporter, Canada imports a significant amount of oil and refined petroleum products. In 2003, 44.5 million tons of crude oil was imported, representing 56 % of the intake of the country s refineries 6 (IEA, 2007). This is due to the long distance between the Western most productive regions and the most populous locations in the Eastern part of the country. Another consideration is the private nature of the Canadian oil sector with a growing share of ownership by foreign companies including from China. The proven oil reserves of Canada are second in the world, only behind Saudi Arabia. However, over 5 % of these resources are oil sand deposits. The United States ranked 12th among all 37 countries and 1 st among the medium range of less energy-vulnerable countries. Compared to Canada, its weaknesses are on I 2 to I 5, the major difference being on I 2. The U.S. is a net oil- and gas-importing 6 IEA, Energy Balances of OECD countries Edition. International Energy Agency, Paris, country. In 2003, its net imports were Mtoe and 76.1 Mtoe respectively. Oil and gas imports amounted to 2.8 % of the total primary energy supply. The imported oil came from various geopolitical regions: Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) 2.6 %, Middle East (ME) 21.7 %, Africa (AF) 15.6 % and OECD 60.2 %. With 6 %, the importation of natural gas is mostly from the OECD. In the baseline calculation, risk factors were attributed to the various geopolitical regions - CIS (30 %); ME (50 %); AF (20 %); OECD (0 %) resulting in a value of for I 2. A change of the risk factors such as CIS (15 %); ME (60 %); AF (15 %); OECD (10 %) would result in a slight increase of I 2 (0.315). Japan ranked 25th and its major weakness was on I 2. In 2003 the net imports of Japan were Mtoe and 68.4 Mtoe for oil and gas respectively. The origins of oil imports were CIS (0. %), ME (80.5 %), AF (2.2 %), OECD and others (16.4 %); and for gas ME (23.1 %), OECD, Indonesia and others (76. %). The high dependency of Japan on the ME region for oil import is its major energy vulnerability concern. The strength of this country is mainly on energy intensity (rank: 1 st ) and electricity supply (rank: 3 rd ). France ranked 8th and Germany th. France outranked Germany on I 2 and I 3, while it was the contrary for I 1, I 4 and I 5. The main difference relates to I 3, i.e for France and S+F (27. Jg.) 4/

11 T H E M E N S C H W E R P U N K T Gnansounou, Energy transition and security of supply: OECD countries for Germany. This is due to the high adoption of nuclear power in France and the higher share of coal in Germany. However, this is moderated by a higher risk of public non-acceptance attributed to the French electricity mix that could follow after a nuclear accident somewhere in the world. Australia ranked just after Japan. Australia outranked Japan for energy independency, while Japan outranked Australia on all other indicators. Australia performed particularly low on the intensity of CO 2 emissions due to its high reliance on coal. Fossil fuels represented 4 % of the TPES in 2003, compared to 84.4 % for Japan. The difference is mainly due to the use of nuclear energy for electricity generation in the latter country. 4. Conclusions Most of the OECD countries cannot only rely on domestic energy production. Thus, the questions are how much energy could be produced internally, and how much should be imported from secure regions. The questions were answered in the old paradigm as follows: 1) Take the resources wherever they are; take them at the lowest possible direct price. 2) Add value on the resources and increase welfare inside the country. 3) Continue as long as the resources are available. 4) Use all your power to get access to the resources everywhere in the world. 5) Be peaceful as long as your own interests are safe. This paradigm based on power games may no longer be effective in the future because of the distribution of power among several countries. A possible new paradigm could be as follows: 1) Be really cooperative and peaceful 2) Take care of the human well-being everywhere in the world 3) Strive for improved energy efficiency and rational use of energy 4) Work to assure the capability of future generations to use some part of the non-renewable resources 5) Super power is vulnerable; collective intelligence is more sustainable 6) Be a part of a fair and peaceful international governance of natural resources. Rethinking the energy supply security of industrialised countries in light of this new paradigm means that interdependence in access to natural resources must be the rule. The need of fair international governance taking into account the strategic interests of all parties is a prerequisite for a peaceful and collective energy security. On the way towards such a new paradigm, which could be envisaged beyond 2050, several options should be discussed, including the following examples: should be preferably used in the chemical industry. In order to achieve a good allocation of resources, oil- and gas-intensive industries should be located close to the countries exporting these fuels. Finally, the profits from exports of oil resources should be distributed more equally among a larger percentage of people in oil-producing countries and around them. Electric Power. The deployment of CO 2 capture and storage and clean coal technologies should be promoted in all countries relying on coal-based power generation. The investments in combined cycle power plants, biomass cogeneration, solar (PV and thermal), wind energy and other renewable energy options should be increased radically, along with the investments in research and development of advanced and inherently safe nuclear fission, thermonuclear fusion and fuel cells technologies. Transportation. The vision for a sustainable energy use in transport includes the following issues: The better mastery of human mobility and cargo traffic through the design of more sustainable urban agglomerations; promotion of plugin hybrid electric vehicles in the near term and pure electric vehicles, FCVs and hydrogen in the longer term; development of sustainable biofuels, first mainly as a substitute to gasoline and diesel in light duty vehicles and, in the longer term, mainly for heavy duty vehicles. A new relation between economic development and energy. According to the old paradigm, economic development relies on unconstrained access to inexpensive energy resources that resulted in numerous examples of power games, energy supply disruptions due to geo-political reasons and a generally insecure world. In the new paradigm, economic development will have to cope with more expensive energy that needs joint efforts by producers and consumers to reduce the volatility of energy prices, to ensure more secure energy supply as well as to safeguard a more peaceful and fair world. Industrialised countries should anticipate this situation by boosting investments in innovation and promoting more energy-efficient technologies and products. It is technically possible to make this vision become a reality. Its realisation mainly depends on the decisions of policymakers in industrialised countries and emerging economies who should strive for larger international cooperation for equitable governance of finite natural resources. Oil and natural gas. A radical substitution of oil and natural gas by alternative sources should be promoted especially in industrialised and leading emerging economies. Oil and gas 214 S+F (27. Jg.) 4/2009

12 T H E M E N S C H W E R P U N K T Obama s Toughest Challenge America s Energy Crunch Comes Home Michael T. Klare * Abstract: A brief assessment of future options for the supply of energy in the United States demonstrates that President Obama will face an extraordinary challenge in attempting to overcome the nation s long-term energy crisis. His natural inclination has been to make a series of modest gestures toward green energy independence. But these have been wholly insufficient. In order to meet the energy crisis, a White House-led initiative on the scale of the Manhattan Project that produced the first atomic bomb is needed. Its principal goals should be to drastically reduce the contribution of oil and coal to energy supply in the United States, increase the contribution of renewable energy and demilitarize the reliance on imported oil. Keywords: Energie, Erneuerbare Ressourcen, US-Sicherheitspolitik, US-Energiepolitik Energy, renewable resources, U.S. security policy, U.S. energy policy 1. Introduction President Barack Obama faces many acute challenges, but none is likely to prove as daunting, or as critical to the future of this nation, as that of energy. After all, energy policy so totally mishandled by the Bush-Cheney administration figures in so many of the other major challenges facing the president, including the economy, the environment, foreign policy, and the ongoing wars in the Middle East. Most of all, it will prove to be a monumental challenge because the United States faces an energy crisis of unprecedented magnitude that is getting worse by the day. The United States needs energy lots of it. Day in and day out, the United States, with only 5 percent of the world s population, consumes one quarter of the world s total energy supply. About 40 percent of the nation s energy is derived from oil: approximately 20 million barrels per day (mb/d), or 840 million gallons. Another 23 percent comes from natural gas, and 22 percent from coal. Providing all this energy to American consumers and businesses, even in an economic downturn, poses a Herculean task, and one that will only grow more so in the years ahead. According to the latest projections from the U.S. Department of Energy (DoE), net energy consumption in the United States will grow by 11 percent between 2007 and 2030, rising from 101. to quadrillion British thermal units (BTUs) of energy. Procuring all of this added energy will be a tough enough job in itself, given the difficulties being faced by the world s energy companies in satisfying the ever-increasing demand for their products. 2 But providing this much additional energy and addressing international concerns over global climate change will prove even more challenging. Despite the great emphasis being placed on the development of non-polluting renewable * Michael T. Klare is the Five College Professor of Peace and World Security Studies, based at Hampshire College in Amherst, Massachusetts, USA. U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration (DoE/EIA), Annual Energy Outlook 2009 (Washington, D.C.: DoE/EIA, 200 ), Table A1, p. 10. Data is for For background and discussion, see Michael T. Klare, Rising Powers, Shrinking Planet: The New Geopolitics of Energy (New York: Metropolitan Books, 2008), pp energy supplies, fossil fuels are still expected to supply 82 percent of the nation s total energy supply in 2030 (compared to 86 percent today). 3 Addressing the environmental consequences of consuming fossil fuels at such levels only makes this outlook more intimidating. As President Obama and his colleagues face the nation s energy problem, they will have to address three overarching challenges: 1. The United States relies excessively on petroleum to supply its energy needs at a time when the future availability of oil is increasingly in question. 2. America s most abundant domestic source of fuel, coal, is the greatest emitter of greenhouse gases when consumed in the current manner. 3. No other source of energy, including natural gas, nuclear power, biofuels, wind power, and solar power is currently capable of supplanting America s oil and coal consumption, even if a decision is made to reduce their importance in its energy mix. This, then, is the essence of President Obama s energy dilemma. Let us take a closer look at each of its key components. 2. Excessive Reliance on Oil No other major power relies on getting so much of its energy from oil. Although the share of America s net energy supply provided by oil is expected to decline from 40 percent today to about 37 percent in 2030, it will still remain the nation s dominant fuel far into the future. That 40 (or 37) percent dependency figure will prove increasingly daunting because the world supply of oil is about to contract. The competition for remaining supplies will then intensify, while most of what remains is located in inherently unstable regions, threatening to lead the United States into unceasing oil wars. 3 DoE/EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2009, Table A1, p. 10. S+F (27. Jg.) 4/

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