Swiss Private Equity & Corporate Finance Congress 2012

Transkript

1 Swiss Private Equity & Corporate Finance Congress 2012 Dr. Bernd W. Pfister Crisis Investing

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3 Membership Development (per April 2012) SECA Mitglieder Eintritte Eintritte Young SECA per Austritte Mitglieder per SECA Mitglieder Young SECA per Mitglieder per Page 3

4 Four key SECA objectives for the year 2012: 1. To promote to investors, the case for investing in Swiss private equity and venture capital. 2. To influence public policy and raise further the awareness of the economic benefits of corporate finance, private equity and venture capital. 3. To influence and work with regulatory organizations and professional associations and lawmakers to create a competitive framework for the Swiss private equity and venture capital industry. 4. Provide useful services to our members and communicate effectively with them. Page 4

5 July Where do we stand? Page 5

6 Today: Unsustainable Levels Page 6

7 European Banking Crisis Slow Motion Deposits are moving abroad via Mouse Clicks from PIIGS Banking System like 1857 Page 7

8 European Default History Albania (1990) Austria-Hungary (1796, 1802, 1805, 1811, 1816, 1868) Austria Croatia (1938, 1940, 1945 [16] ) ( ) [16] Bulgaria Denmark (1932 [citation needed], 1990) (1813) (see Danish state bankruptcy of 1813) Spain is Europe s Nr. # 1 Defaulter! England (1340, 1472, 1596) France (1558, 1624, 1648, 1661, 1701, 1715, 1770, 1788, 1812) Germany (1932, 1939, 1948 [16] ) Hesse (1814) Prussia (1683, 1807, 1813) Schleswig-Holstein (1850) Westphalia (1812) Greece (1826, 1843, 1860, 1893, 1932, 2012) Hungary (1932, 1941) The Netherlands (1814) Poland (1936, 1940, 1981) Portugal (1560, 1828, 1837, 1841, 1845, 1852, 1890) Romania (1933) Russia (1839, 1885, 1918, 1947, [16] 1957, [16] 1991, 1998) Spain (1557, 1575, 1596, 1607, 1627, 1647, 1809, 1820, 1831, 1834, 1851, 1867, 1872, 1882, , 2013(?)) Sweden (1812) Turkey (1876, 1915, 1931, 1940, 1978, 1982) Ukraine ( ) [16] United Kingdom (1749, 1822, 1834, , 1932) [16] Yugoslavia (1983) Page 8

9 There is light in the tunnel! But it takes Decades not Years Page 9

10 .. and it takes Growth & Inflation: US slowing down Page 10

11 China: Slowing down fast with hugh Misallocation of Capital Real Estate Bubble This is bigger than Spain! Kangbashi, China, built for a population of one million, is inhabited by just a few thousand A high-speed train in Beijing: a technical marvel, but its fares can't cover its costs Page 11

12 Where is the Opportunity? Some Practical Advise. Crisis Investing or Riches among the Ruins! Three Steps to Success: 1. Realize Problem 2. Avoid Risk 3. Take the Opportunity $ Panic Page 12

13 Case Study 1: Scandinavian Banking Crisis % Realize Problem Avoid Risk Take the Opportunity Page 13

14 Case Study 1: Scandinavian Banking Crisis BUY SEK/CHF (12/1992) BUY Equity & Real Assets Realize Problem Avoid Risk Take the Opportunity Page 14

15 Don t be Close to the Fire! Realize Realize Problem Problem Avoid Avoid Risk Risk Take Take the the Opportunity Opportunity Page 15

16 Case Study 1: Economic Adjustment Process after the Scandinavian Banking Crisis % Page 16

17 Look out for Prime Real Estate in Athens, Madrid and Dublin (after Devaluation) BUY (12/1992) Realize Problem Avoid Risk Take the Opportunity Page 17

18 Case Study 2: Russian Crisis SWITCH RUB/CHF AND BUY RUSSIA EQUITY BUY Russian Private Equity (9/1998) Equity -75% RUB/CHF - 68% Realize Problem Avoid Risk Take the Opportunity Page 18

19 Case Study 3: Islandic Banking Crisis ( ) SWITCH ISK/CHF BUY MAREL FOOD (9/2009) BUY Islandic Equity & Real Estate Währung -75% Equity -50% Realize Problem Avoid Risk Take the Opportunity Page 19

20 Attention: Govenments Steal your Money regularily via Executive Order after the Crisis USA France Germany Page 20

21 Thank you very much Have a nice Conference Day Dr. Bernd Pfister Paros Capital AG Zugerstrasse 8a 6340 Baar Page 21

22 Eigentum verpflichtet so steht es im Grundgesetz der BRD. Diese schwammig gehaltene Formulierung im Artikel 14 könnte Immobilienbesitzer in den nächsten Jahren teuer zu stehen kommen. Deutschland hat bereits zweimal eine Zwangshypothek (1923 und 1948) aus Häuser gesetzt. Artikel 14.(3) Eine Enteignung ist (nur) zum Wohle der Allgemeinheit zulässig. Sie darf nur durch Gesetz oder auf Grund eines Gesetzes erfolgen, das Art und Ausmaß der Entschädigung regelt. Die Entschädigung ist unter gerechter Abwägung der Interessen der Allgemeinheit und der Beteiligten zu bestimmen. Wegen der Höhe der Entschädigung steht im Streitfalle der Rechtsweg vor den ordentlichen Gerichten offen. Das Grundgesetz schützt Eigentum eben nicht und rechtlich betrachtet ist eine solche Zwangshypothek problemlos zulässig. Page 22