Global Perspectives in Food and Agriculture

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1 Global Perspectives in Food and Agriculture Fulda, 20 April 2007 Alexander Müller Assistant Director-General Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations 1

2 World population: Further growth, but at drastically declining rates Assumptions Total population (billions) Annual increments (billions) Source: UN,

3 Urban and Rural Population Urbanization to accelerate 6 Assumptions Billion people actual expected Urban Rural Source: UN, World Population Assessment

4 Ageing and population dividend of an Asian Tiger Assumptions 4

5 Distribution of income: today and in 2030 Assumptions US$ 13,416 per person Developed Countries 80% Increase by more than 200% Developing Countries 20% 1997/99 US$ 986 per person Increase by more than 300% 2030 Developing Countries 34% Developed Countries 66% US$ 3,408 per person US$ 33,361 per person 5

6 Ziele und tatsächliche Entwicklung in der Hungerbekämpfung Ziele und Wirklichkeit Unterernährte in Millionen / / / Ostasien Südasien s.s-afrika Latein Amerika Naher Osten-Nordafrika Entwicklungsländer WFS-Ziel MDG6 Quelle: FAO 2003

7 Erfolge und Misserfolge in der Hungerbekämpfung Hunger und Überfluss 7 Source: FAO, SOFI, 2002

8 Entwicklung der Energie- und Proteinverfügbarkeit pro Person FAO: Ernährung 2015/2030 8

9 und zuviel Zucker und Fett AT2030 9

10 The nutrition transition As China get richer... Chinese diet, adults aged years Less than 10% of energy from fat: 30% or more from fat Source: B.Popkin, China Health & Nutrition Survey, 10

11 The nutrition transition As China get richer... Chinese diet, adults aged years Less than 10% of energy from fat: 30% or more from fat Source: B.Popkin, China Health & Nutrition Survey, 11

12 The nutrition transition As China get richer... Chinese diet, adults aged years Less than 10% of energy from fat: 30% or more from fat Source: B.Popkin, China Health & Nutrition Survey, 12

13 Global Diabetes Prevalence 13 Asia/Australia % +51% +31% +64% +57% Africa America Europe Near East Million people

14 thousand people Global Diabetes Mortality in 2000 (age group between 35 and 64 years) Africa America Europe Near East Asia/Australia 14

15 HIV/AIDS and Diabetes mellitus, worldwide millions HIV/AIDS Diabetes cases deaths Source: The status of the global epidemic Nov03; 15 WHO/IDF, Diabetes Action now, 2004

16 Übergewicht ist nicht mehr nur ein Problem der Industrieländer BMI>30 AT

17 Das Ergebnis einer unnatürlichen Evolution The outcomes Quelle: The Economist 17

18 C. Ausblick bis 2030: Ausgewählte Ergebnisse Die wichtigsten Exportmärkte Million Tonnen Getreideimporte der Entwicklungsländer Historische Entwicklung Ostasien Südasien Naher Osten/Nordafrika Latein Amerika s.s.afrika Projektionen

19 C. Ausblick bis 2030: Ausgewählte Ergebnisse Fleischimporte/ -exporte der Entwicklungsländer Die wichtigsten Exportmärkte 1000 Tonnen Historische Entwicklung Südasien Ostasien Naher Osten/Nordafrika Latein Amerika s.s. Afrika Projektionen

20 Animal protein trade Poultry trade flow Beef trade flow Pork trade flow Canada Russian Federation USA Japan Mexico India Brazil Argentina Australia 20

21 niches in the disease landscape are taken up by already existing pathogens often originating from wildlife (emergence of H5N1) 2,500,000 China Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao, Thailand and Vietnam 2,000,000 Duck Meat Production (Tons) 1,500,000 1,000, ,

22 US $ 50 B SARS China, Singapore, Canada, Thailand ~50 B US $ 40 B US $ 30 B FMD UK B Cost US $ 20 B Avian Influenza B US $ 10 B Cholera Peru 775 M Adapted from Bio Economic Research Associates, BSE UK B FMD Taiwan 5 B West Nile USA Lyme Dz ~500 M 2.5 B Nipah Malaysia ~400 M Year BSE US 3.5 B

23 Adapted 24 from Foresight,

24 Agricultural resource use: state, challenges and options for the future million ha Land in use versus suitable area for crop production Latin America and Caribbean sub-saharan Africa Suitable for rainfed crop production Arable land use, 1997/ East Asia South Asia Near East/North Africa Industrialized countries Transition Economies 25

25 Irrigation water withdrawal as a share of renewable water resources (%) Today in Latin America Near East/North Africa South Asia East Asia All developing countries sub-saharan Africa Agricultural resource use: state, challenges and options for the future

26 4. What challenges for the resource base?... despite growing water scarcity, water use efficiency gains can still be reaped! Irrigation efficiency by region (in %) Today in 2030 sub-saharan Africa Latin America Near East/North Africa South Asia East Asia All developing countries 27 Agricultural resource use: state, challenges and options for the future

27 World Agriculture: towards 2015/30 Thanks for your attention! More in