The German Logistics Market: Market Size and Structure, Trends and Challenges

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1 The German Logistics Market: Market Size and Structure, Trends and Challenges German-Dutch Logistics Conference Prof. Dr. Christian Kille Duisburg, 25/3/2014 Hochschule für angewandte Wissenschaften Würzburg-Schweinfurt Agenda The Status Quo of the German Logistics Market Some Challenges in Logistics in Germany The Development of Logistics in Germany Hochschule für angewandte Wissenschaften Würzburg-Schweinfurt 2

2 The logistics market in Germany an industry with relevance (status 2012) in bn. Sources: Destatis 2013, Kille/Schwemmer: Top 100 in Logistics 2013, Verbände Hochschule für angewandte Wissenschaften Würzburg-Schweinfurt 3 Logistics services are processed by retail, industry and logistics companies Logistics expenses can be found in industry and retail (51%) and logistics services (49%) Contract Logistics is an important part complex logistics bundles with various services individualized solutions several years contracts significant volume About 40% of the expenses are referring to contract logistics Source: Kille/Schwemmer: Top 100 der Logistik 2013 Hochschule für angewandte Wissenschaften Würzburg-Schweinfurt 4

3 Mainly, transportation is outsourced Source: Kille/Schwemmer: Top 100 der Logistik 2013 Hochschule für angewandte Wissenschaften Würzburg-Schweinfurt 5 Germany is the largest logistics market in Europe Europe: about 930 b. USA: about 900 b. China: about 500 b. Source: Kille/Schwermmer 2013 Hochschule für angewandte Wissenschaften Würzburg-Schweinfurt 6

4 Imports increased in 2013 by 3.3%; EU driver of growth by value by weight ARA ca. 80 mill. t 621 mill. t (2013) 896 b. (2013) HH ca. 65 mill. t HB ca. 35 mill. t Air 1.9 mill. t by port Other ports D ca. 75 mill. t Rest ca. 365 mill. t Source: Kille 2014 in cooperation with ADHOC and Fraunhofer SCS on the basis of Destatis 2014 Hochschule für angewandte Wissenschaften Würzburg-Schweinfurt 7 NRW, Lower Saxony, Bavaria and Baden- Württemberg are the Top 4 in importing Veränderung: -11% Anteil: 14% Veränderung: +7% Anteil: 29% Veränderung: +13% Anteil: 11% Veränderung: +3% Anteil: 12% Missing volumes: transit or not allocated Source: Kille 2014 in cooperation with ADHOC and Fraunhofer SCS on the basis of Destatis 2014 Hochschule für angewandte Wissenschaften Würzburg-Schweinfurt 8

5 In total, 91 mill. to were imported from the Netherlands Imports from the Netherlands in tons 2013 Hochschule für angewandte Wissenschaften Würzburg-Schweinfurt 9 Source: Kille 2014 in cooperation with ADHOC and Fraunhofer SCS on the basis of Destatis 2014 Slight increase in exports by 0.4% in 2013; demand in EU drives outgoing tonnages by value HH: ca. 50 mill. t Other ports: ca. 30 mill. t by weight HB: ca. 35 mill. t Air: ca. 2.2 mill. t 378 mill. t (2013) 1,094 b. (2013) Road: ca. 165 mill. t Rail: ca. 45 mill. t IWW: ca. 48 mill. t Source: Kille 2014 in cooperation with ADHOC and Fraunhofer SCS on the basis of Destatis 2014 Hochschule für angewandte Wissenschaften Würzburg-Schweinfurt 10

6 According exports, the industry states are leading Nordrhein-Westfalen 25% -2% Bayern 10% +1% Baden-Württemberg 10% -2% Niedersachsen 9% +1% Rheinland-Pfalz 6% -1% Hamburg 4% +5% Sachsen-Anhalt 3% +5% Hessen 3% -1% Mecklenburg-Vorpommern 3% +32% Brandenburg 2% -5% Schleswig-Holstein 2% -2% Saarland 2% -1% Sachsen 2% -5% Bremen 1% -15% Thüringen 1% -4% Berlin 1% -2% Veränderung: -2% Anteil: 25% Veränderung: +1% Anteil: 9% Veränderung: +1% Anteil: 10% Veränderung: -2% Anteil: 10% Missing volumes: transit or not allocated Source: Kille 2014 in cooperation with ADHOC and Fraunhofer SCS on the basis of Destatis 2014 Hochschule für angewandte Wissenschaften Würzburg-Schweinfurt 11 In sum, 71 mill. tons were exported to the Netherlands in 2013 Exports from the Netherlands in tons 2013 Source: Kille 2014 in cooperation with ADHOC and Fraunhofer SCS on the basis of Destatis 2014 Hochschule für angewandte Wissenschaften Würzburg-Schweinfurt 12

7 The most important logistics locations are very near to the seaports Hochschule für angewandte Wissenschaften Würzburg-Schweinfurt 13 Agenda The Status Quo of the German Logistics Market Some Challenges in Logistics in Germany The Development of Logistics in Germany Hochschule für angewandte Wissenschaften Würzburg-Schweinfurt 14

8 Infrastructure a continuous discussion The planning of infrastructure projects takes too long Balancing act between knowing the need and convincing all stakeholders Low reputation of logistics For 2020 forecasted bottlenecks Status 2006 Bottlenecks today Hochschule für angewandte Wissenschaften Würzburg-Schweinfurt 15 Everybody is talking about skilled workers in industries what abour logistics? Growth from 2.48 m. employees in 2004 to more than 2.8 m. in 2013 in logistics Do You have problems now or in near future to find adequate employees? Yes No Skills shortage already in place in logistics Source: BVL 2011 So: let s talk about the image of logistics Hochschule für angewandte Wissenschaften Würzburg-Schweinfurt 16

9 One of the main challenges in logistics is the image at least in Germany Hochschule für angewandte Wissenschaften Würzburg-Schweinfurt 17 Agenda The Status Quo of the German Logistics Market Some Challenges in Logistics in Germany The Development of Logistics in Germany Hochschule für angewandte Wissenschaften Würzburg-Schweinfurt 18

10 Discussing the developments in logistics is like a weather forecast Either it s nothing new, or it s totally different from reality But some impacts can be outlined which influence the market (just a collection of drivers) Hochschule für angewandte Wissenschaften Würzburg-Schweinfurt 19 Logistics is changing from bulky raw materials to sensitive goods by tons imports by tons exports Metals -15% Coke -31% Oar -13% Stones and earth -27% Stones and earth -10% Glas and ceramics -19% Pharma +12% Pharma +16% IT +10% Food +11% Automobive +4% IT +6% The structure of shipments is changing heavily and has direct effects on the handling and transportation Source: Destatis 2013; Development from 2008 to 2012 in Germany Hochschule für angewandte Wissenschaften Würzburg-Schweinfurt 20

11 Besides the demand, especially the costs are changing Index - Average of 2008 = 100 Forecast Source: Fraunhofer SCS Hochschule für angewandte Wissenschaften Würzburg-Schweinfurt 21 Worksharing 2.0 and Industry 4.0: Changing the supply chain Postponement in production Responsive Supply Chain Reverse Logistics New tasks and new responsibilities Source: Kille 2013 Hochschule für angewandte Wissenschaften Würzburg-Schweinfurt 22

12 This leads to a continuous growth in logistics Updated Projection 2013: +1% Updated Forecast 2014: +1% to +5% Approach: Corridor for plausible forecast based on different impacts Source: Kille/Schwemmer 2013 Hochschule für angewandte Wissenschaften Würzburg-Schweinfurt 23 I m looking forward to Your questions Prof. Dr. Christian Kille Trade Logistics Scientific Advisor University for Applied Sciences Fraunhofer-Center for Applied Research on Würzburg-Schweinfurt Supply Chain Services SCS Institute for Applied Logistics IAL Münzstr. 12, Würzburg Nordostpark 93, Nürnberg Phone: christian.kille@fhws.de christian.kille@scs.fraunhofer.de Hochschule für angewandte Wissenschaften Würzburg-Schweinfurt 24