RESIDENTIAL PV SYSTEMS TECHNOLOGY TRENDS, REGULATION AND THEIR IMPACT ON MARKET DEVELOPMENT (SIW17-228)

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1 RESIDENTIAL PV SYSTEMS TECHNOLOGY TRENDS, REGULATION AND THEIR IMPACT ON MARKET DEVELOPMENT (SIW17-228) Karsten Burges, Michael Döring, David Beier, Franziska Lobas-Funck, Christian Reinhold 7 th Solar Integration Workshop, Berlin, October / ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED

2 EXPERIENCE WITH PV POLICIES IN GERMANY SHOWS: Sometimes, progress and improvement are two different things. Arithmetic average often is a misleading metric. This is in particular true for monetary figures. Designing effective and accurate measurement systems is challenging, even for technicians. Sound interpretation of measurements is even more challenging. 2 2 / 2016 ECOFYS, NAVIGANT A NAVIGANT CONSULTING, COMPANY. INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED

3 THE GERMAN RESIDENTIAL PV MARKET TRENDS AND IMPORTANCE Residential PV systems up to 7 kwp account only for a minor fraction of total PV capacity (7.25%). However, there are many about 37.5% of the total plant population and about 50% of annual growth (2016) number of installed systems (1000) installed capacity [MW], (lines stacked) <=7kWp (#) >7 kwp (#) <=7kWp (cap) >7 kwp (cap.) 0 Data source: Bundesnetzagentur 3 3 / 2016 ECOFYS, NAVIGANT A NAVIGANT CONSULTING, COMPANY. INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED

4 THE GERMAN PV MARKET SPECIFIC COSTS AND FEED IN TARIFFS DECREASE. During the last decade, costs of PV systems showed a steeply decreasing trend: 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Mai. 05 Okt. 06 Feb. 08 Jul. 09 Nov. 10 cost index Apr. 12 Aug. 13 Dez. 14 Mai. 16 Sep. 17 cost index Source: German PV ModulePriceMonitor, BSW-Solar / EuPD Research, Berlin, / 2016 ECOFYS, NAVIGANT A NAVIGANT CONSULTING, COMPANY. INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED

5 THE GERMAN PV MARKET SPECIFIC COSTS AND FEED IN TARIFFS DECREASE. Feed in tariffs showed similar trends. 100% 60 90% 80% 50 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% feed in tariff [ ct/kwh] Mai. 05 Okt. 06 Feb. 08 Jul. 09 Nov. 10 Apr. 12 Aug. 13 Dez. 14 Mai. 16 Sep. 17 Source: Bundesnetzagentur (data partly aggregated) PV>30kWp PV<30kWp PV<10kWp PV Greenfield 5 5 / 2016 ECOFYS, NAVIGANT A NAVIGANT CONSULTING, COMPANY. INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED

6 THE GERMAN PV MARKET SPECIFIC COSTS AND FEED IN TARIFFS DECREASE. Feed in tariffs showed similar trends. 100% 60 90% 80% 50 cost index 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Mai. 05 Okt. 06 Feb. 08 Jul. 09 Nov. 10 Apr. 12 feed in tariff [ ct/kwh] Aug. 13 Dez. 14 Mai. 16 Sep. 17 Source: Bundesnetzagentur (data partly aggregated) cost index PV>30kWp PV<30kWp PV<10kWp PV Greenfield 6 6 / 2016 ECOFYS, NAVIGANT A NAVIGANT CONSULTING, COMPANY. INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED

7 THE GERMAN RESIDENTIAL PV MARKET A CLOSER LOOK ON SPECIFIC COSTS. However, specific costs (2016) in the segment with smallest capacities (residential) vary a lot. Comparing Greenfield (100 + kwp) and small building integrated PV <10 kwp, the ratio of feed in tariffs is about 1/1.4. The cost ratio however is up to 1/1.6 for the smallest systems spec. cost [ /kwp] plant's nameplate capacity [kwp] Tobias Kelm. Vorbereitung und Begleitung bei der Erstellung eines Erfahrungsberichts gemäß 97 Erneuerbare-Energien-Gesetz, interim report, / 2016 ECOFYS, NAVIGANT A NAVIGANT CONSULTING, COMPANY. INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED

8 THE GERMAN RESIDENTIAL PV MARKET A CLOSER LOOK ON SPECIFIC COSTS. However, specific costs (2016) in the segment with smallest capacities (residential) vary a lot Comparing Greenfield (100 + kwp) and small building integrated PV <10 kwp, the ratio of feed in tariffs is about 1/1.4. The cost ratio however is up to 1/1.6 for the smallest systems spec. cost [ /kwp] plant's nameplate capacity [kwp] Tobias Kelm. Vorbereitung und Begleitung bei der Erstellung eines Erfahrungsberichts gemäß 97 Erneuerbare-Energien-Gesetz, interim report, / 2016 ECOFYS, NAVIGANT A NAVIGANT CONSULTING, COMPANY. INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED

9 ARE SMALL SYSTEMS STILL PROFITABLE? In many cases, feed in tariff is lower than costs of the generated kwh. For assumptions see paper. 9 9 / 2016 ECOFYS, NAVIGANT A NAVIGANT CONSULTING, COMPANY. INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED

10 ECONOMICS OF RESIDENTIAL, ROOFTOP PV IN GERMANY THE RATIONAL OF OWN CONSUMPTION ILLUSTRATED. Avoided costs for buying electricity are higher *) than 12.3 ct/kwh for feed in tariff. The profitability of a PV plant depends on the share of own consumption in the total yield. *) Common end user prices are ct/kwh. 19%VAT apply, i.e. net benefit is 20+ ct./kwh / 2016 ECOFYS, NAVIGANT A NAVIGANT CONSULTING, COMPANY. INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED

11 POLICY AMBITIONS ACCELERATE SMART METER ROLLOUT THE GAP INCREASES. The meter company may place a static smart meter if this is technically and economical feasible (Messstellenbetriebsgesetz (MsbG), 29-31). In the power range considered, the company may charge an additional 60 per year / 2016 ECOFYS, NAVIGANT A NAVIGANT CONSULTING, COMPANY. INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED

12 ECONOMICS OF RESIDENTIAL, ROOFTOP PV IN GERMANY THE RATIONAL OF OWN CONSUMPTION ILLUSTRATED. Compensating costs of smart meters requires a ±10% increase of own consumption. With static meter / 2016 ECOFYS, NAVIGANT A NAVIGANT CONSULTING, COMPANY. INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED

13 OWN CONSUMPTION WITH ENERGY STORAGE DESIGNING ADEQUATE REGULATION TURNS OUT TO BE DIFFICULT. Share of own consumption can be increased substantially by adding storage. Of course this requires extra investments. Storage users with PV systems>10kw had to pay the renewables levy (reduced 40% share) twice: for the electricity generated by PV and for electricity drawn from the battery. renewables levy renewables levy / 2016 ECOFYS, NAVIGANT A NAVIGANT CONSULTING, COMPANY. INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED

14 OWN CONSUMPTION WITH ENERGY STORAGE DESIGNING ADEQUATE REGULATION TURNS OUT TO BE DIFFICULT. Regulation has been adjusted *) renewables levy is not applicable to stored electricity generated by PV. (Also not to electricity required to cover storage losses.) This requires to identify which part of the electricity from the storage originally came from PV. This results in odd concepts for metering and battery management. Accuracy is questionable. *) Renewables Energy Act 2017, 61k / 2016 ECOFYS, NAVIGANT A NAVIGANT CONSULTING, COMPANY. INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED

15 THE DANGEROUS CONCLUSION AN INDIVIDUAL DOES NOT STRICTLY BEHAVE LIKE THE HOMO ECONOMICUS. Residential PV systems are still being installed. Hence, the transformation and decarbonisation of the electrical power system in Germany will happen as projected in policy scenarios. SHOULD WE REALLY RELY ON THIS? / 2016 ECOFYS, NAVIGANT A NAVIGANT CONSULTING, COMPANY. INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED

16 CONTACT Michael Döring Karsten Burges David Beier 16 / ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED

17 THE GERMAN RESIDENTIAL PV MARKET TRENDS AND IMPORTANCE Residential PV systems up to 7 kwp account only for a minor fraction of total PV capacity (7.25%). However, there are many about 37.5% of the plant population. number of installed systems (1000) number capacity kWp 2 3kWp 3 4kWp 4 5kWp 5 6kWp 6 7kWp 1 2kWp 2 3kWp 3 4kWp 4 5kWp 5 6kWp 6 7kWp installed capacity [MW], (lines stacked) Data source: Bundesnetzagentur / 2016 ECOFYS, NAVIGANT A NAVIGANT CONSULTING, COMPANY. INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED

18 Reasonable shares of own consumption in residential systems without storage in Germany. Volker Quaschning. Regenerative Energiesysteme: Technologie - Berechnung - Simulation. Carl Hanser Verlag, München, 9 edition, / 2016 ECOFYS, NAVIGANT A NAVIGANT CONSULTING, COMPANY. INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED