History and Future at the Dresden Elbe Gauge. Data Mining and Results from the viewpoint of a hydraulic engineer.

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1 Institut für asserbau und Technische Hydromechanik Reinhard Pohl: Dresden Elbe Gauge.History HydroPredict, Praha 2010 History and Future at the Dresden Elbe Gauge. Data Mining and Results from the viewpoint of a hydraulic engineer. Reinhard Pohl

2 Institut für asserbau und Technische Hydromechanik Reinhard Pohl: Dresden Elbe Gauge.History HydroPredict, Praha 2010 Netherlands map: Germany, Czech Republic and Elbe river watershed

3 Institut für asserbau und Technische Hydromechanik Reinhard Pohl: Dresden Elbe Gauge.History HydroPredict, Praha Elbe, Gauge Pegel Dresden LogNorm Gumbel Question:??? Pears3 PlotPos LogN_u August 2002: 4580 m³/s at a gauge water level of 940 cm Q (m³/s) 8000 LogN_o Gumbl_u Gumbl_o QPu QPo flood 1845 : 5700 m³/s at a gauge water level 877 cm Dresden, : Inundation of the historical city center Elbe: 940 cm above gauge datum (normal: 200 cm) Tn (a)

4 Institut für asserbau und Technische Hydromechanik Reinhard Pohl: Dresden Elbe Gauge.History HydroPredict, Praha 2010

5 Institut für asserbau und Technische Hydromechanik Reinhard Pohl: Dresden Elbe Gauge.History HydroPredict, Praha 2010 Inundation area Dresden 1845

6 Institut für asserbau und Technische Hydromechanik Reinhard Pohl: Dresden Elbe Gauge.History HydroPredict, Praha 2010 City of Dresden Town of Meissen from: Historische Hochwasser aus dem Erzgebirge (Dresdner asserbauliche Mitteilungen; Heft 28, 2004, ISBN

7 Institut für asserbau und Technische Hydromechanik Reinhard Pohl: Dresden Elbe Gauge.History HydroPredict, Praha

8 Institut für asserbau und Technische Hydromechanik Reinhard Pohl: Dresden Elbe Gauge.History HydroPredict, Praha 2010

9 Institut für asserbau und Technische Hydromechanik Reinhard Pohl: Dresden Elbe Gauge.History HydroPredict, Praha 2010

10 Institut für asserbau und Technische Hydromechanik Reinhard Pohl: Dresden Elbe Gauge.History HydroPredict, Praha 2010 until 1907 from

11 Institut für asserbau und Technische Hydromechanik Reinhard Pohl: Dresden Elbe Gauge.History HydroPredict, Praha Elbe Hist SP Plan: Plan 05 Elbe 1845 Dresden, Augustusbrücke, Pegel Dresden, km ater profiles Q = 2000 and 5000 m³/s Legend S PF 10 S PF 6 Ground Bank Sta 120 Elevation (m)

12 Reinhard Pohl: Dresden Elbe Gauge.History Institut für asserbau und Technische Hydromechanik Elbe Hist SP 1940 HydroPredict, Praha 2010 Plan: Plan 03 Elbe 1940 Dresden, Augustusbrücke, Pegel Dresden, km Legend ater profiles Q = 2000 und 5000 m³/s S PF 10 S PF 6 Ground 125 Bank Sta Elevation (m) Station (m)

13 Institut für asserbau und Technische Hydromechanik Reinhard Pohl: Dresden Elbe Gauge.History HydroPredict, Praha 2010 Introduction DataInundation sources Chronology depth and Bed flow morphology velocities ater during profiles the 1845 Stage-discharge flood at a discharge ralations Statistics of 4500 Conclusions m³/s

14 Institut für asserbau und Technische Hydromechanik Reinhard Pohl: Dresden Elbe Gauge.History HydroPredict, Praha 2010 Introduction DataInundation sources Chronology depth and Bed flow morphology velocities ater during profiles the 1845 Stage-discharge flood at a discharge ralations Statistics of 4500 Conclusions m³/s

15 Institut für asserbau und Technische Hydromechanik Reinhard Pohl: Dresden Elbe Gauge.History HydroPredict, Praha 2010 Elevation (m) Elbe Hist SP Plan: 1) P02_2006 2) P05_1845 3) P04_1890 4) P01_2002 5) P03_1940 Elbe1 Profiles calculated for Q = 2000 and 5000 m³/s 1845, 1890, 1940, 2002 since 1852 Marien bridge afflux since 1907 less afflux due to new built bridge since 1895 Carola bridge since 1873 Albert bridge Legend S PF 10 - P05_1845 S PF 10 - P02_2006 S PF 10 - P04_1890 S PF 10 - P01_2002 S PF 10 - P03_1940 S PF 6 - P05_1845 S PF 6 - P01_2002 S PF 6 - P02_2006 S PF 6 - P03_1940 S PF 6 - P04_1890 Ground Main Channel Distance (m)

16 Institut für asserbau und Technische Hydromechanik Reinhard Pohl: Dresden Elbe Gauge.History HydroPredict, Praha stage (m asl) 1845 Kirsch/Pohl = 79% 1890 DHI: > 3885 = 89% 1845 and 1890 floodways not yet built 1845 Siglow/Pohl: > 4335 = 76% channel still wider but almost the same depth as nowadays flood protection in Saxony polynom 2006 formula polynom flood protection in S.l 2002 calculated polynom 2002 calculated stage-discharge from 2006 Bartl Bartl Bartl DHI official official official official Siglow/Pohl 1845 Siglow/Pohl Q (m³/s) 6000 comparison of the stage-discharge-relations at the Dresden gauge, assumed steady flow (without hysteresis) with dispersion (orange) due to roughness estimations between n = 0.02 to 0.06 s/m 1/3

17 Institut für asserbau und Technische Hydromechanik Reinhard Pohl: Dresden Elbe Gauge.History HydroPredict, Praha only few but extrem floods increasing data density, also smaller floods river training, reduction of river width dam construction in the watershed climate change? Qs (m³/s) Qs Qs new year Floods of the Elbe river in Dresden since 1501 A.D. hollow triangles mark the official peak discharges up to now, filled triangles mark the revised values

18 Institut für asserbau und Technische Hydromechanik Reinhard Pohl: Dresden Elbe Gauge.History HydroPredict, Praha 2010

19 Institut für asserbau und Technische Hydromechanik Reinhard Pohl: Dresden Elbe Gauge.History HydroPredict, Praha only few but extrem floods increasing data density also smaller floods river training, reduction of river width dam construction in the watershed climate change? 3000 Qs years Jahr Linear trends of partial series of annual peak discharges: 30 years (black line) 50 years (orange)

20 Institut für asserbau und Technische Hydromechanik Reinhard Pohl: Dresden Elbe Gauge.History HydroPredict, Praha

21 Institut für asserbau und Technische Hydromechanik Reinhard Pohl: Dresden Elbe Gauge.History HydroPredict, Praha 2010 moving average of flood stage percentage of urban area within the inundation area damage potential/ per capita gross national product? damage potential within the inundation area inundated urban area qualitative depiction of the estimated impacts of (extreme) floods schematical depiction of the inundated urban area

22 Conclusions Institut für asserbau und Technische Hydromechanik Reinhard Pohl: Dresden Elbe Gauge.History HydroPredict, Praha 2010 Available (historical) stagedischarge relations in urban areas are (often) incorrect 5000 Correction of peak discharge values necessary (e.g. 1845: 5700 m³/s m³/s) Talweg für 1845 geschätzt Subsequently also S the recurrence periods S and the S protection objectives will be S subjected to change S Investigations are very S 1845 time consuming due to S the 1845 difficult and partially inconsistent S data 200 S sitution 100 S From the points above the need Fahrwasser münn of further research H also 1845 münn at other rivers can be PN derived münn bis D calculations on Talweg the basis aus Längsschnitt of 1845 gem. Talweg 2002 digital terrain models are S desirable S Correction of design S water levels important for S appropriate estimation S 2002 of vulnerability and S measures for S resilience Introduction Data sources S 2002 Chronology Bed morphology ater profiles Stage-discharge ralations Statistics Conclusions S

23 Institut für asserbau und Technische Hydromechanik Reinhard Pohl: Dresden Elbe Gauge.History HydroPredict, Praha 2010 Thank you Questions?

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