Modelling CO 2 and trace gas exchange between landsurface

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1 Modelling CO 2 and trace gas exchange between landsurface and atmosphere Rüdiger Grote Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung, Atmosphärische Umweltforschung, Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Direktor: Prof. Dr. Hans Peter Schmid KIT Universität des Landes Baden-Württemberg und nationales Großforschungszentrum in der Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft

2 Biosphere-Atmosphere Exchange CO2 (GtC = 1000 TgC = g) CH4 (TgC = g) (~800) Global Carbon Project 2013; Figure based on Kirschke et al N2O (TgN= g) 6.7 million tonnes 11 million tonnes ~11 IPCC Fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change Berlin, Rüdiger

3 Biosphere-Atmosphere Exchange NOx from soils = 4-21TgN O3 damage = ~ 20 % yield loss Volatile organic carbon from plants = ~ 1000 TgC 3 Berlin, Rüdiger

4 Biosphere-Atmosphere Exchange 4 Berlin, Rüdiger

5 Biosphere-Atmosphere Exchange Emission Concentration Impact What happens beyond today?? 5 Berlin, Rüdiger

6 Modelling Emission Concentration Impact 1 st Problem: unknown human behavior - Not my topic - 6 Berlin, Rüdiger

7 Modelling Butterbach et al (PTRS) 2 nd Problem: Many unknown cause-effect relationships 3 nd Problem: Many different scales involved 7 Berlin, Rüdiger

8 Modelling Why is it so difficult? Shresta et al (New Forests) 1. Many processes involved 8 Berlin, Rüdiger

9 Modelling Why is it so difficult? Grote et al (Forest Systems) 2. Different systems involved Model Coupling 9 Berlin, Rüdiger

10 Modelling Why is it so difficult? Needed: Available: - Soil depth - C & N content - Acidity - Water holding capacity - Soil density - - Species composition - Ground coverage - 3. Detailed initial information required Tarnocai et al Berlin, Rüdiger

11 Modelling Why is it so difficult? N2O 4. Small time steps required 11 Berlin, Rüdiger

12 Modelling from site to regional 12 Berlin, Rüdiger

13 Modelling from site to regional CH4 emission 13 Berlin, Rüdiger

14 Modelling from site to regional N2O Emissions (mgn m-2 season-1) Huang & Gerber 2015 (BGD) Riley et al (BG) 14 Berlin, Rüdiger

15 Modelling Considering Feedbacks 15 Berlin, Rüdiger

16 Modelling Considering Feedbacks Hierarchy-theory: Levels: How to deal with it in models: Global Slow Litter input, economy, Population Water holding growth cap., rate,. National Gas Middle Nitrogen availability, economy release, dev., Energy Withdrawal Nitrification, supply prices, prices, Total Gas Denitrification withdrawal energy demand Production fast Microbial activity efficiency, vs. environmental cond. Constants Dynamic model Function parameters??? Robinson & Ek 2000 (CJFR) intense Holons infrequent 16 Berlin, Rüdiger

17 Modelling The Earth System 17 Berlin, Rüdiger

18 Modelling Considering Feedbacks Net Carbon Exchange: Included - Drought - CO2 - Temperature Not included: - Disturbances! - Reforestation - Soil changes! Sitch et al Berlin, Rüdiger

19 Modelling Considering Feedbacks Net N2O Exchange: Included - Drought - CO2 - Temperature Not included: - Disturbances! - Reforestation - Soil changes! Huang and Gerber 2015 (BGD) 19 Berlin, Rüdiger

20 Summary Estimates are highly uncertain 20 Berlin, Rüdiger

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