adapt2to4: Projektüberblick und Einführung

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1 CC NC SA BY a_kep 2.0 CC SA BY Xocolatl 3.0 CC SA BY Josef Saurwein 2.0 adapt2to4: Projektüberblick und Einführung Birgit Bednar-Friedl Wegener Center für Klima und Globalen Wandel, Universität Graz

2 Einleitung Witterungsabhängige Schadenskosten in Europa heute (Enei et al. 2011; Nemry and Demirel 2012) 2,25 Mrd. Euro pro Jahr davon: 80% Straße, 16% Luft, 3% Bahn; 1% Rest Kostenzerlegung (Nemry and Demirel 2012) 30-50% der Straßenerhaltungskosten in Europa sind witterungsinduziert (8-13 Mrd. /Jahr) Rest: abhängig vom Verkehrsaufkommen (Anzahl der Fahrzeuge, Straßen) Kostentrigger bis Mitte/Ende des Jahrhunderts in Europa (FP7 WEATHER project, based on PESETA II and ENSEMBLES project) Zu- oder Abnahme des durchschnittlichen Niederschlags Zunahme von Extremniederschlagsereignissen ( 50 mm/tag) 2

3 Durchschnittliche jährliche Kosten an Straßeninfrastruktur in Europa Schadenskosten v.a. durch Niederschlag 10% der Schadenskosten durch Extremereignisse (Nemry and Demirel, 2012) Source: WEATHER project (Enei et al., 2011, p. 61) 3

4 Projektüberblick adapt2to4 An economic assessment for prioritising adaptation measures and policies in a +2 C to +4 C world ACRP 3 rd Call, April 2011-September 2014 Zentrale Fragestellungen des Projekts + Welche Auswirkungen des Klimawandels auf die Verkehrsinfrastruktur sind bis 2050 zu erwarten? + Welche Anpassungsoptionen stehen für private und öffentliche Akteure zur Verfügung und zu welchen Kosten? + Welche Effekte haben die Anpassungsmaßnahmen auf den Verkehrssektor bzw. die Volkswirtschaft? + Wie können unterschiedliche Anpassungsoptionen priorisiert werden? + Welche Anpassungspfade (adaptation pathways) können eingeschlagen werden? 5

5 Projekt-Team Birgit Bednar-Friedl, Gabriel Bachner, Finn Laurien, Olivia Koland, Brigitte Wolkinger; Martin Suklitsch, Matthias Themessl Martin König, Astrid Felderer, Martin Hölzl, Ivo Offenthaler Bernhard Fürst, Katrin Gabert International Advisory Board Paul Watkiss, Stockholm Environmental Institute 6

6 WP SURVEY T1.1: key European project review T1.2: key literature review T1.3: preliminary CCIVA assessment for Austria WP APPROACH T2.1: evaluation of climate trends T2.2: impact assessment for transport & housing infrastructure T2.3: market-driven adaptation T2.4: policy driven adaptation T2.5: Visions of adapted futures milestones & results WP ASSESS T3.1: refinement of CGE model for macroeconomic impact assessment T3.2: derivation of impact functions T3.3: integration of different adaptation options M1.1: Complete picture about relevant projects and literature M1.2: Cross-sectoral CCIVA completed R1.1: Commented list of pertinent projects R1.2: Commented matrix of key methods and results R1.3: Matrix of climate-sensitive economic sectors in Austria with sector-wise impact and adaptation cost assessments M2.1: results on climate trends for impact analysis M2.2: Impact assessment for transport & building infrastructure completed M2.3: Policy visions on adapted futures available R2.1: List of market-driven adaptation options/costs R2.2: List of policy-driven adaptation options/costs R2.3: Report on politically feasible adaptation pathways M3.1: Set of scenarios for adaptation process available M3.2: Integration of adaptation technologies / costs in CGE model and model refinement M3.3: Economic assessment of adaptation options R3.1: Technical report on method for a national adaptation cost assessment in Austria WP PRIORITISE T4.1: evaluation of market-driven adaptation options T4.2: evaluation of policy-driven adaptation options T4.3: evaluation and decision support for different decision making entities M4.1: Evaluation framework for selection of options available M4.2: Macroeconomic assessment of adaptation options compl. R4.2&4.3: Benchmark reports on adaptation measures (for practical and strategic part of NAS) Ultimate goal: Assessment of adaptation options based on economic and other relevant criteria 7

7 M Hauptergebnisse: Schäden heute 2,5 2,0 Rockfall 1,5 Storm 1,0 0,5 Snow Mudflow/Landslide Flood 0,0 Salzburg Styria Tyrol Vorarlberg Average annual damage costs to secondary road network in four Austrian provinces (in M ): Salzburg (ø ), Styria (ø ), Tyrol (ø ), and Vorarlberg (ø ) Data source: Amt der Salzburger Landesregierung (2012), Amt der Steiermärkischen Landesregierung (2012), Amt der Tiroler Landesregierung (2011), Amt der Vorarlberger Landesregierung (2011) Note: Styria and Salzburg have a comprehensive database for the survey periods and respectively while Tyrol and Vorarlberg lack an unbroken data base although survey periods are slightly longer. For Vorarlberg, a hundred year flood occurred in 2005 (Pfurtscheller and Kleewein, 2010) and hence these damage costs were not used for calculating average annual damage costs.

8 average days per year Hauptergebnisse: Verschiebung der Niederschlagsereignisse 180 probability of damage event 0,4% 0,4% 2,0% 4,0% 6,3% 8,8% 14,8% 22,1% 30,5% 40,1% >110 precipitation (mm/day) Average number of days per year in each precipitation class for base period , mid-range climate change and (for Austria on average)

9 annual cdamage days (in M ) Hauptergebnisse: zukünftige Schadtage current & future costs diminishing socioeconomic dev. enhancing socioeconomic dev. 500 ø ø ø base period no climate change mid-range no climate change mid-range 0 climate scenarios Average annual weather and climate triggered damage events (with damage potential 30,000 ) for the total Austrian road network arising from socioeconomic development and climate change (in M ) Quelle: Bednar-Friedl, B., Wolkinger, B., König, M., Bachner, G., Formayer, H., Offenthaler, I., Leitner, M. (2014). Transport. In: Steininger, K., König, M., Bednar-Friedl, B., Kranzl, L., Prettenthaler, F. (ed.), Economic Evaluation of Climate Change Impacts: Development of a Cross- Sectoral Framework and Results for Austria. Springer, Berlin.

10 annual costs (in M ) Hauptergebnisse: zukünftige Schadenskosten current & future costs impact diminishing socioeconomic dev. impact enhancing socioeconomic dev ø ø ø base period no climate change mid-range no climate change mid-range climate scenarios Average annual weather and climate triggered damage costs for the total Austrian road network arising from socioeconomic development and climate change (in M ) Quelle: Bednar-Friedl, B., Wolkinger, B., König, M., Bachner, G., Formayer, H., Offenthaler, I., Leitner, M. (2014). Transport. In: Steininger, K., König, M., Bednar-Friedl, B., Kranzl, L., Prettenthaler, F. (ed.), Economic Evaluation of Climate Change Impacts: Development of a Cross- Sectoral Framework and Results for Austria. Springer, Berlin.