Renaissance der Atomenergie Mythos oder Wirklichkeit?

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1 Renaissance der Atomenergie Mythos oder Wirklichkeit? Mycle Schneider International Consultant on Energy and Nuclear Policy Technische Universität Wien Oktober 2006 Mycle Schneider Consulting

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5 The Role of Nuclear Power in the Final Energy Supply of the Six Largest Nuclear Electricity Producers Country Total Primary Energy (in Mtoe) Total Final Energy (in Mtoe) Nuclear Final Energy Supply (in Mtoe) Nuclear Share in Final Energy (in %) France ,5 Japan South Korea ,7 Germany ,4 USA ,9 Russia ,1 Mycle Schneider Consulting

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10 As to actively replacing plants now, the technology is on life support. (Platts, 22 March 2006) Grid Connections in Western Europe in ,900 MW of combined cycle gas turbines 5,800 MW of wind 0 MW of nuclear. Grid Connections in Western Europe in ,900 MW of combined cycle gas turbines 6,183 MW of wind power 0 MW of nuclear. Under Construction in Western Europe in 2006 > 20,000 MW of combined cycle gas turbines 1,600 MW of nuclear (Finland) Mycle Schneider Consulting

11 Die Internationale Energieagentur der OECD zur Zukunft der Atomenergie (World Energy Outlook 2005) Der Anteil der Atomkraft an [der Deckung] der globalen Primärenergienachfrage wird sinken. Atomkraft wird Schwierigkeiten haben, mit anderen Technologien zu konkurrieren. Man sagt voraus, daß die Atomproduktion um 2015 ihren Höchststand erreichen wird. Ihr Anteil an [der Deckung] des Weltprimärenergiebedarfs wird bis 2010 stabil bleiben, bei etwa 6%, und dann, um 2030, auf unter 5% sinken. Mycle Schneider Consulting

12 OECD-IEA World Energy Outlook 2005: The share of nuclear power in global primary energy demand will decline ; Nuclear power will struggle to compete with other technologies ; Nuclear production is projected to peak around 2015 and then decline gradually. Its share of world primary demand will remain flat, at about 6%, through 2010 and then fall to less than 5% by Mycle Schneider Consulting

13 Umfrage Eurobarometer EU-25 September 2005 Sind Sie für oder gegen Atomenergie? Mycle Schneider Consulting

14 Mycle Schneider % fairly or totally in favor of nuclear energy Mycle Schneider Consulting

15 South Korea USA Jordan Australia Canada Indonesia Great Britain India Mexico France Germany Russia Cameroon Japan Hungary Saudi Arabia Argentina Morocco Mycle Schneider Consulting Nuclear is safe; build more plants Use what s there; don t build new Nuclear is dangerous; close all plants Source: AIEA, Octobre 2005

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22 Source: MINEFI 2006 Mycle Schneider Consulting

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28 Frankreich importiert immer mehr Strom Source: RTE, L énergie électrique en France en 2005, Paris, 2006 Mycle Schneider Consulting

29 France : 10 TWh net import from Germany in Source: RTE, L énergie électrique en France en 2005, Paris, 2006 Mycle Schneider Consulting

30 MtCO2 Total: 566 Mt CO2 GHG Emissions by Sector in France from 1990 to 2003 (Mt CO2 equivalent) Agriculture Waste Industrial process Transport Energy 556 Mt CO2 (-2%) Mt CO2 146 Mt CO2 (+20%) Mt CO2 255 Mt CO2 (-3%) Source: UNFCCC - Key GHG Data 2005 Mycle Schneider Consulting

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32 MtC CO 2 Emissions by Sector in France from 1970 to 2003 (millions tons of carbon) Energy Agriculture Industry (incl. steel) Residential - Commercial Transport Source: Observatoire de l'énergie, DGEMP, 2001; MIES 2004; CITEPA 2004 Mycle Schneider Consulting

33 Fazit Energiepolitik in Frankreich Atompolitik -> Stromverschwendung-> Spitzenlastexplosion -> Abhängigkeit fossile Brennstoffe -> hohe Emissionen Atompolitik keine Lösung der Klimaproblematik, im Gegenteil Mycle Schneider Consulting

34 Electricity Consumption in the Residential Sector in Japan Source: FEPCO, Electricity Review Japan 2005 Mycle Schneider Consulting

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38 MtCO2 Total: 1242 Mt CO2 167 Mt CO2 GHG Emissions by Sector in Germany from 1990 to 2003 (Mt CO2 equivalent) 1082 Mt 1019 Mt Agriculture Waste Industrial process Transport Energy 1016 Mt Mt 192 Mt 175 Mt Mt CO2 720 Mt 672 Mt 692 Mt Source: UNFCCC, Key GHG Data 2005 Mycle Schneider Consulting

39 Fazit Energiepolitik in Deutschland Hoher Verbrauch -> Abhängigkeit von fossilen Brennstoffen -> hohe Emissionen Erneuerbare Energien alleine keine Garantie für niedrige Emissionen -> keine Lösung der Klimaproblematik... und Österreich? Mycle Schneider Consulting

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43 MtCO2 Total: 78,5 Mt GHG Emissions by Sector in Austria from 1990 to 2003 (Mt CO2 equivalent) Agriculture Waste Industrial process Transport Energy 91 Mt (+16%) Mt 23 Mt (+77%) Mt 46 Mt (+10%) Source: UNFCCC - Key GHG Data 2005 Mycle Schneider Consulting

44 Klimapolitik Österreich : mit Vollgas gegen die Wand? Quelle: UBA, Wien, Juni 2005 Mycle Schneider Consulting

45 Fazit Energiepolitik in Österreich Hoher Verbrauch -> Abhängigkeit von fossilen Brennstoffen -> hohe Emissionen Weiter steigende Tendenz katastrophal Erneuerbare Energien alleine keine Garantie für niedrige Emissionen -> keine Lösung der Klimaproblematik...auch so ein «déjà vu» Gefühl? Mycle Schneider Consulting

46 Historical Development of CO2 Emissions and Nuclear Power Programs Worlwide through the 20th Century CO2 Emissions (Mt C) Nuclear electricity (TWh) CO2 fossil fuel equivalent of the world nuclear electricity production (Mt of carbon) World CO2 emissions from the consumption of fossil fuels (Mt of carbon) World nuclear electricity production (TWh) Source: WISE-Paris (2001)/DOE (2000), Oak Ridge Lab. (2000), AIEA (2001) Mycle Schneider Consulting

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49 Concluding Remarks Nuclear Power is bound to decline. Renewable Energy only provides solutions if provided together with demand reduction. A sustainable and intelligent energy future will only be possible if - finally - energy efficiency and demand side management will go from decade long rhetoric to radical implementation. Mycle Schneider Consulting