Renewable energy in Deutschland: an economic evaluation Jan C. Bongaerts

Transkript

1 Renewable energy in Deutschland: an economic evaluation Jan C. Bongaerts

2 1. Data about the current situation 2. Prices and economic situation 3. Value creation by local government 4. Forecasts and wrong predictions 5. Outlook

3 Worldwide data

4 Deutschland: total energy consumption and the share or energy from renewable sources

5 Deutschland: total energy consumption and the share or energy from renewable sources

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9 Deutschland: jobs in the renewable energy sector

10 Deutschland: jobs in the renewable energy sector jobs in 2020?

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12 Deutschland: Investments in renewable energy capacity

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15 Wind power plants in Deutschland: costs come down Sachsen 2009 ca GWh 6,8 % des Strombedarfs in Sachsen (SAENA)

16 Wind power plants in Deutschland: productivity goes up Sachsen 2009 ca GWh 6,8 % des Strombedarfs in Sachsen (SAENA)

17 Photovoltaics in Deutschland Capacity per Inhabitant in W / EW for 2009 Deutschland : 119 Watt /EW

18 Photovoltaics in Deutschland Watts per Inhabitant in W / EW for >

19 Photovoltaics in Deutschland Costs come down Sachsen: 66 Watt /EW Deutschland : 119 Watt /EW

20 Photovoltaik in Deutschland Kostendegression und Einspeisevergütung (FITs) Cost index of production of equipment and feed-in tariff Sachsen: 66 Watt /EW Deutschland : 119 Watt /EW

21 Photovoltaics in Deutschland Green = share of PV of electricity generation Blue = share of EEG levy of price of electricity

22 Biogas in Deutschland Number of biogas plants and amount of installed capacity

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24 Deutschland: export revenues fro the renewable energy sector

25 1. Data about the current situation 2. Prices and economic situation 3. Value creation by local government 4. Forecasts and wrong predictions 5. Outlook

26 Deutschland: prices of electricty EEG-Umlage = levies for electricity from renewable sources Steuern = Taxes Beschaffungskosten = production (inclusive and exclusive of grid connection costs) Steuern = taxes (for industry) Netzentgelt = grid connection costs (for industry)

27 Merit order

28 Merit order

29 Merit order

30 Merit order

31 Merit order

32 Merit order

33 Merit order

34 Shift of the merit curve lowers price of electricity Without wind power With wind power

35 Energy from renewable sources has a negative impact on spot market prices Australia

36 Deutschland: does industry benefit or suffers from renewable electricity?

37 Deutschland: does industry benefit or suffers from renewable electricity? Renewable electricity sold on the EEX power exchange has a dampening effect on the price of electricity: about 0.5 ct per kwh (shown in green) Industrial companies must pay a levy to finance the feed-in tariff. Actual rates depend on energy consumption with bonus reductions for energy intensive sectors

38 Deutschland: does industry benefit or suffers from renewable electricity? Die Kunden profitieren Der Preis, der an der Strombörse bezahlt werden muss, richtet sich nach dem jeweils teuersten Anbieter. Damit konnten die vier großen Kraftwerksbetreiber EnBW, Eon, RWE und Vattenfall hohe Gewinne machen, indem sie billigen Grundlaststrom zur Mittagszeit sehr teuer verkauften. Doch je preiswerter Solaranlagen und damit Solarstrom wird und je mehr Strom aus Photovoltaikanlagen ins Netz eingespeist wird, was in der Regel hauptsächlich zur Mittagszeit passiert, desto geringer wird der Preis an der Strombörse. Die Profiteure dieser Entwicklung sind trotz Einspeisevergütung für Solarstrom und EEG-Umlage die Endkunden. Vor allem stromintensive Unternehmen profitieren schon heute von niedrigen Börsenstrompreisen durch die erneuerbaren Energien, sagt Björn Klusmann, Geschäftsführer des Bundesverbandes Erneuerbare Energien (BEE). Im letzten Jahr betrug dieser Effekt immerhin rund drei Milliarden Euro.

39 Deutschland: does industry benefit or suffers from renewable electricity? Customers benefit The electricity price charged at the power exchange is based on the most expensive bidder. In this way, the four largest operators of power stations, i.e. EnBW, Eon, RWE and Vattenfall make high profits by selling cheap base-load electricity at midday times at very high prices. The lower the costs of solar plants, the lower the costs of PV electricity and the more PV electricity fed into the grid which normally happens at midday times the lower the price of electricity at the power exchange. Even with the EEG levy for PV electricity, final customers benefit. In particular, already today, energy intensive companies benefit from lower exchange prices resulting from renewable energies, says Björn Klusmann, Managing Director of Bundesverband Erneuerbare Energien (BEE). Last year, this effect amounted to about three billion Euro.

40 PV Electricity generation and demand for 24 hours in six months 2011 Germany Demand = load curve Left vertical axis PV production right vertical axis Solar electricity generation corresponds to load curve

41 Forward electricity prices Germany

42 Spot market price on a sunny weekend in April 2013 Germany

43 Correlation between wind power electricity and spot market price Germany

44 Energy from renewable sources has a negative impact on spot market prices Germany Average Price of the spot market April Septem ber 2011 April- Septem ber 2013

45 Deutschland

46 Deutschland Sales proceeds Electricity from renewables is sold on the EEX power exchange. The net proceeds are used to partially cover the feed-in [EEG] payments (12.33 billion in 2011). The difference is 8,24 billion which is paid through a levy on all electricity users.

47 Deutschland: cut of government support leads to avoided investments and loss of tax income 400 million for heat systems reduced to 19.5 million freezing of 115 million Renewable electric on 844 million investments not commissioned 300 million loss of tax income

48 1. Data about the current situation 2. Prices and economic situation 3. Value creation by local government 4. Forecasts and wrong predictions 5. Outlook

49 Deutschland: value creation by local government initiatives

50 Deutschland: value creation by local government initiatives Blue = rental income Yellow = profit after taxes Red = tax income of local government Green = net income from employment

51 Deutschland: value creation by local government initiatives: electricity, heat and vehicle fuels

52 Deutschland: value creation by local government initiatives 1 = production of plant equipment and components 2 = planning and construction 3 = operation and maintenance 4 = sales of electricity Blue = taxes Orange = profits Green = income from employment

53 Deutschland: value creation by local government initiatives

54 Deutschland: value creation by local government initiatives Local government as entrepreneur sets up public utility company (with or without partners) company operates as a business local government operates a grid Local government as provider of infrastructure operates as shareholder public-private utility company Construction of infrastructure by private partner rental agreement about use of infrastructure Local government as government concessionnaire as concessionnaire By-laws about revenues from concessions

55 Deutschland: ownership of renewable energy installations

56 Deutschland: ownership of renewable energy installations

57 Deutschland: renewables benefit everyone

58 1. Data about the current situation 2. Prices and economic situation 3. Value creation by local government 4. Forecasts and wrong predictions 5. Outlook

59 Deutschland: forecasts

60 Deutschland: forecasts

61 Deutschland: electricity mix in 2020

62 Deutschland: forecast of required capacity by 2020

63 Deutschland: so far, all forecasts were wrong

64 Deutschland: prominent but wrong forecasters

65 Deutschland: prominent but wrong forecasters Then Minister of Research Hans Matthöfer: So far, serious experts have beeen considering that the generation of electricity with solar energy in the Federal Republic is not yet possible from an ecological and economic point of view Dr. Angela Merkel, then head of the CDU/CSU opposition delegation of German Bundestag: It is poorly realistic to increase the share of renewable energy of total electricity consumption to 20 %. I believe it is not realistic that renewable energy can close a gap which, for example, would open up due to the premature closure of nuclear power plants.

66 Europe: all forecasts below real development

67 1. Data about the current situation 2. Prices and economic situation 3. Value creation by local government 4. Forecasts and wrong predictions 5. Outlook

68 Deutschland as the leading country? Electricity from renewable sources

69 Deutschland as the leading country? Six core elements of German policy making Continue the expansion of electrcity from renewables, especially wind offshore and onshore Continue with the provision of security for investors through the feed-in act ( EEG ) Proceed with cost efficiency of equipment and lower the levy for the feed-in tariff system Prudent management of exemptions from the levy for selected electricity traders and industries Improve grid management with the increasing share of electricity from renewable sources through system integration Simplify and make legislation more transparent

70 Back-up slides

71 References Agentur für erneuerbare Energien: Stromversorgung Wege in eine moderne Energiewirtschaft; Strom-Ausbauprognose der Erneuerbare-Energien-Branche, Berlin, Januar 2009 Agentur für erneuerbare Energien: Vorhersage und Wirklichkeit Vergleich von Prognosen und Szenarien mit der tatsächlichen Entwicklung Erneuerbarer Energien, Kurzgutachten, Berlin, Mai 2009 Bernd Hirschl, Astrid Aretz et al.: Kommunale Wertschöpfung durch Erneuerbare Energien, Berlin, Schriftenreihe des IÖW 196/10, September 2010 Bundesregiering: Erfahrungsbericht 2011 zum Erneuerbare-Energien-Gesetz (EEG- Erfahrungsbericht) IfnE, Ingenierbüro für erneuerbare Energien: Strom aus erneuerbare Energien bis zum Jahr 2020 Kosten-Nutzen- ausgewählter Aspekte, Teltow, 2009