Soil moisture and climate change

Transkript

1 Soil moisture and climate change Prof. Dr. Daniela Jacob Climate Service Center, Hamburg Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie, Hamburg Professor II, Universität Bergen, Norwegen Picture taken from: lbeg.niedersachsen.de

2 Land surface temperatures Troposphere temperature Ocean surface temperatures Upper ocean heat content Marine air temperatures Sea level rise Humidity Stratospheric temperature N. H. thaw depth Arctic sea ice N. H. snow cover Glacier mass balance Warning indicators: Arndt et al (

3 Land precipitation is changing significantly over broad areas Increases Decreases Smoothed annual anomalies for precipitation (%) over land from 1900 to 2005; other regions are dominated by variability. Credit: IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, Chapter 3, Figure 3.14

4 Neueste Ergebnisse der globalen Klimamodellierung CSC, 2012 Base period for all scenarios: 1971 to 2000

5 Projected Patterns of Precipitation Changes

6 6 Klimaänderungen: Ergebnisse für Europa Niederschlagsänderung Übereinstimmung der Modelle Multi-Model-Mean ( )-( ) Szenario A1B

7 Soil-Moisture-Feedbacks Courtesy of: Stefan Hagemann, MPI

8 Evapotranspiration Regimes Soil moisture W coupling via evapotranspiration E Evaporative Fraction EF = actual E / available energy EF Dry Transitional Wet Soil moisture limited Energy limited EF max 0 W pwp W crit Soil moisture W Review on soil moisture feedbacks: Seneviratne et al. (2010)

9 Transitional Soil Wetness WS Number of months/year with W pwp < WS < W crit from ECHAM5/MPIOM ensemble mean monthly climatology for Teuling et al. (2009) Driver of evapotranspiration E (moisture and radiation) Estimation based on land surface model simulations Yearly correlations of E with global radiation and precipitation.

10 Transitional soil wetness WS Number of months/year with W pwp < WS < W crit from ECHAM5/MPIOM ensemble mean monthly climatology A1B Similar patterns as E-T correlations of Seneviratne et al. (2006) obtained from three GCMs

11 Evapotranspiration Regimes Soil moisture W coupling via evapotranspiration E Evaporative Fraction EF = actual E / available energy EF Dry Transitional Wet Soil moisture limited Energy limited EF max 0 W pwp W crit Soil moisture W Review on soil moisture feedbacks: Seneviratne et al. (2010)

12 Picture taken from:images.nationalgeographic.com Droughts and...

13 Changes in heavy precipitation in Dresden, August 2002 Münster,

14 Chirlesti mudflow (Buzau Carpathians) Product: mud flows connected to long/ heavy precipitation

15 Scales in Hydrology Picture taken from:

16 Addressing the Bandwidth of the Climate Projections

17 Klimasignalkarten für Deutschland Ziel: Identifikation von Regionen mit robusten Klimaänderungssignalen, in denen Klimaänderungen auf Basis aktueller Klimaprojektionen als sehr wahrscheinlich anzusehen sind Methode: state-of-the-art Ensemble regionaler Klimaprojektionen (~30 Simulationen) Dreistufiger Robustheitstest: - Einigkeit der Simulationen (agreement, wie IPCC) - Signifikanz der Änderungen - geringe Sensitivität gegenüber kleinen Verschiebungen der betrachteten Zeiträume Zeitraum (hier ), Schwellwerte, Parameter, räumliche Darstellung wählbar. 2m Temperatur: Alle Regionen zeigen robuste Änderungen Tage mit >25mm Niederschlag: Regionen die mindestens einen Robustheitstest nicht bestanden haben in grau

18 Multi-model chain to assess navigation conditions in the Rhine River Nilson et al. (2010)

19 Challenges Ensemble simulations to take into account the uncertainties in CC development Bridging the scales from global to local (multi-model chains) Local recycling and their effects on ecosystems like wetlands and swamps Process understanding: Land use land cover changes and their influence on soils and soil moisture Climate change and ground water Monitoring of on-going changes: Long term measurements sites, dense and/or representative Homogenous, quality controlled and accessible data are needed 19

20 Vielen Dank! Kontakt: Prof. Dr. Daniela Jacob Climate Service Center Abteilung Klimasystem Fischertwiete Hamburg daniela.jacob@hzg.de 20