Which habitats in core areas of ecological networks in Germany are most affected by climate change?
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1 Which habitats in core areas of ecological networks in Germany are most affected by climate change? Katrin Vohland Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research In cooperation with: Supported by:
2 Which habitats in core areas of ecological networks in Germany are most affected by climate change? Characteristics of core areas Climate Impact Aquatic parts of the ecological network Terrestrial parts of the ecological network Conclusions
3 Which habitats in core areas of ecological networks in Germany are most affected by climate change? Characteristics of core areas Climate Impact Aquatic parts of the ecological network Terrestrial parts of the ecological network Conclusions
4 Characteristics of core areas - What could make them sensitive for climate change? Provide habitat = space for target species abiotic and biotic conditions for target species change Provide dispersal pathways for whom?
5 Which habitats in core areas of ecological networks in Germany are most affected by climate change? Characteristics of core areas Climate Impact Aquatic parts of the ecological network Terrestrial parts of the ecological network Conclusions
6 Projections Emission scenarios Globale Circulation (Climate) Models (GCMs) Regional Climate Models (RCMs) WettReg STAR ReMo IPCC 2007
7 Projections
8 Projections CWB = P PET Climatic Water Balance = Precipitation Potential Evapotranspiration (Penmann-Monteith)
9 Projections
10 Climatic Water Balance
11 Which habitats in core areas of ecological networks in Germany are most affected by climate change? Characteristics of core areas Climate Impact Aquatic parts of the ecological network Terrestrial parts of the ecological network Conclusions
12 Climatic Water Balance And selected rivers for the ecological network
13
14 Climatic Water Balance Hamel And selected rivers for impact assessment Wilde Gera Bära Prange & Vohland, in prep.
15 Bära
16 Soil and Water Integrated Model (SWIM) DGM Catchment area Soil Land Use + Climate Krysanowa et al. 1998
17 Processes in SWIM Krysanowa et al. 1998
18 Bära Medium Runoff during a year, Mean compared to ,0 4,5 4,0 3,5 Durchfluss in m³/s 3,0 2,5 2,0 1,5 1,0 0,5 0, Tag im Jahr 100% enthalten 50% enthalten Mittel Mittel Prange & Vohland, in prep.
19 Bära Medium Runoff during a year, All decades compared to ,0 4,5 4,0 3,5 Durchfluss in m³/s 3,0 2,5 2,0 1,5 1,0 0,5 0, Tag im Jahr Mittel Trendlinie (Mittel ) Prange & Vohland, in prep.
20 Bära compared to Prange & Vohland, in prep.
21 Water level Upper Threshold Lower Threshold Year Prange & Vohland, in prep.
22 Risikotage im unteren Schwellwertbereich Bära Anzahl Risikotage im oberen Schwellwertbereich Anzahl der Tage die maximal erreicht werden Anzahl der Tage die durchschnittlich erreicht werden 30 Anzahl der Tage die mindestens erreicht werden 25 Trendlinie - Anzahl der Tage die maximal erreicht werden 20 Trendlinie - Anzahl der Tage die durchschnittlich erreicht werden Trendlinie - Anzahl der Tage die mindestens erreicht werden 15 Anzahl Anzahl der Tage die maximal erreicht werden Anzahl der Tage die durchschnittlich erreicht werden Anzahl der Tage die mindestens erreicht werden Trendlinie - Anzahl der Tage die maximal erreicht werden Trendlinie - Anzahl der Tage die durchschnittlich erreicht werden Prange & Vohland, in prep.
23 Wilde Gera
24 Wilde Gera Risikotage im unteren Schwellwertbereich Anzahl Anzahl der Tage die maximal erreicht werden Anzahl der Tage die durchschnittlich erreicht werden Anzahl der Tage die mindestens erreicht werden Trendlinie - Anzahl der Tage die maximal erreicht werden Trendlinie - Anzahl der Tage die durchschnittlich erreicht werden Trendlinie - Anzahl der Tage die mindestens erreicht werden Risikotage im oberen Schwellwertbereich 8 Anzahl Anzahl der Tage die maximal erreicht werden Anzahl der Tage die durchschnittlich erreicht werden Anzahl der Tage die mindestens erreicht werden Trendlinie - Anzahl der Tage die maximal erreicht werden Trendlinie - Anzahl der Tage die durchschnittlich erreicht werden Prange & Vohland, in prep.
25 Hamel
26 Hamel Risikotage im unteren Schwellwertbereich Anzahl Anzahl der Tage die maximal erreicht werden Anzahl der Tage die durchschnittlich erreicht werden Anzahl der Tage die mindestens erreicht werden Trendlinie - Anzahl der Tage die maximal erreicht werden Trendlinie - Anzahl der Tage die durchschnittlich erreicht werden Trendlinie - Anzahl der Tage die mindestens erreicht werden Risikotage im oberen Schwellwertbereich Anzahl Anzahl der Tage die maximal erreicht werden Anzahl der Tage die durchschnittlich erreicht werden Anzahl der Tage die mindestens erreicht werden Trendlinie - Anzahl der Tage die maximal erreicht werden Trendlinie - Anzahl der Tage die durchschnittlich erreicht werden Prange & Vohland, in prep.
27 Who has problems with low water? Lampetra fluvialis - Flussneunauge ie/aqua/kaefer/kaefer.html Platambus maculatus Gefleckter Schnellschwimmer Lutra lutra - Fischotter Kartierung SH 2003/4
28 Fazit: Climate Impact on aquatic parts of the ecological network Number of days below low water threshold increases in many rivers despite increasing precipitation Still extremes tend to increase, too. -> Integrated water management (increase landscape infilration, reduce agricultural demands, space for floodplains,...)
29 Which habitats in core areas of ecological networks in Germany are most affected by climate change? Characteristics of core areas Climate Impact Aquatic parts of the ecological network Terrestrial parts of the ecological network Conclusions
30 Biotic changes in habitats (statistic envelope modelling) Loss Gain Turnover N = 845 European Plant Species Pompe et al. 2008
31 Change of Natural Vegetation Respiration Dynamic Mechanistic Vegetation Modelling (LPJ-GUESS) Carbon-allocation Leaf Photosynthesis Hartwood Litter Root Soil
32 Change of Natural Vegetation Respiration Dynamic Mechanistic Vegetation Modelling (LPJ-GUESS) Carbon-allokation Leaf Photosynthesis Hartwood Litter Root Soil
33 Present-day Change of Natural Vegetation PCM-A2 HadCM3-B1 HadCM3-A2 HadCM3-A1fi Hickler et al. in press
34 Present-day Change of Natural Vegetation PCM-A2 HadCM3-B1 HadCM3-A2 HadCM3-A1fi Hickler et al. in press
35 Change of Natural Vegetation LAI Vohland et al. in prep
36 Change of Natural Vegetation Hickler et al. in press
37 Fazit: Climate Impact on terrestrial parts of the ecological network Vegetation changes and therefore habitat quality Species are affected at different scales -> Normativ ethics have to become explicit with regard to nature conservation targets (e.g. Evolutionary potential, representivity, relict species,...)
38 Which habitats in core areas of ecological networks in Germany are most affected by climate change? Characteristics of core areas Climate Impact Aquatic parts of the ecological network Terrestrial parts of the ecological network Conclusions
39 Conclusions Water-demanding parts of the ecological network might not fulfill their functions within the network when facing climate change. Research needs: Evaluation of effectiveness of ecological network for different target species (functional groups) Future distribution requirements of species Deduction of design of ecological network at different scales Space is important -> Nature conservation has to seek for strong partners outside the community to improve overall habitat quality.
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