Agnieszka Łada GERMAN-POLISH BAROMETER 2015 THE POLISH VIEW ON GERMAN-POLISH PARTNERSHIP IN A COMMON EUROPE MAIN CONCLUSIONS
Without any change for a couple of years the Poles evaluate the German European policy positively. Over two thirds (68%) of Poles think, that Germany contributes to a better cooperation in Europe. Only one fifth (20%) of the respondents has a different opinion. Especially the last three years have shown a positive trend concerning the image of the German European policy: During this period the positive opinions have increase by around ten percent. Illustration 1. Does Germany rather contribute to cooperation or to tensions in Europe? (in %) Two thirds (66%) of Poles agree, that Germany is contributing to overcome the crisis in the Eurozone. 18% of the respondents believe that Germany is amplifying the crisis. Illustration 2. Does Germany rather contribute to overcome or to amplify the crisis in Eurozone? (in %) 1
The majority of Poles (53%) is convinced that Germany is aiming to fulfill its own interests within the European Union, but also respects the interests of other states. The share of people, who believe so, did not change since 2010. This was also the case for the last three years concerning the respondents, who think that Germany is aiming to fulfill its goals at the expense of other EU member states (37%). Illustration 3. Does Germany only fulfill its own interest at the expense of other states? Or does Germany fulfill its interests but also respects the interests of other states? (in %) More than the majority of Poles (61%) believes that Germany is profiting from the common currency (Euro). This is an increase by 6% since 2012. At the same time the percentage of those, who believe that the common currency has negative consequences for Germany decreased by 8 percent (from 32% to 24%). Illustration 4. Does Germany profit from the common currency (Euro) or does Germany lose? (in %) 2
Despite positive evaluation of the German European policy Poles are not sure, if a stronger position of Germany in Europe would be beneficial for Poland. 38% of the respondents believe that it would be beneficial and 35% think that it would neither be beneficial nor unbeneficial for Poland. 17% of the respondents predict negative consequences for Poland. Illustration 5. Would a stronger position of Germany in Europe be an advantage or a disadvantage for Poland? (in %) For years Poles see the German-Polish relations positively. Two thirds (66%) of the respondents evaluate the current German-Polish relations as rather good or very good. A different opinion have only 12% of the respondents. The share of those people, who see the current German-Polish relations negatively decreased significantly over the last three years (by nine percent) and stands right now at its lowest level since 2005. The decline of positive evaluations concerning the bilateral relations is smaller (by 6%), but also noticeable. However the amount of respondents, who did not communicate their opinion has increased and reached its highest share since the beginning of the surveys. Illustration 6. How do you evaluate the current German-Polish relations? (in %) 3
Respondents, who evaluate the German-Polish relations as very good or rather good also see the German European policy more positively. Poles are divided concerning the question, whether the German-Polish relations result in political advantages. The group of people, who see more benefits for Germany than for Poland (39%), is almost as numerous as the group, who sees benefits for both countries (38%). 11% of respondents are convinced that relations are more beneficial for the Polish side, while 3% do not see any benefits for both sides. Poles identify economic benefits mainly for the German side (40%). However one third (33%) of respondents believes that both countries benefit economically; 14% see even more benefits for Poland. Illustration 7. Who profited more politically from the German-Polish relations during the last decade? (in %) Asked after problems in the German-Polish relations Poles most frequently mention the different politics of the two countries towards Russia (37%). Also mentioned were (one fourth of the respondents) the mistrust of parts of the Polish public opinion and some politicians towards Germany, the rights of Poles living in Germany, conflicts concerning the commemoration of displacements, attempts of former German landowners to get back their fortune from before the war and finally different interests concerning energy policy. Illustration 8. Which is currently the biggest problem in German-Polish relations? (in %) 4
The majority of Poles still thinks that Germany does rarely or never see in Poland an equal partner (47%). However 43% of respondents believe that Germany does always or often see Poland as equal. The number of those, who claim that Germany practices a fair approach towards Poland increased (from 29% in 2012 to 39% in 2015). At the same time the group of respondents, who observes a fair cooperation only rarely decreased (from 50% to 41%). Illustration 9. Poland and Germany often say We are partners in the European Union. Does Germany see in Poland an equal partner in the EU? (in %) Over two thirds (67%) of Poles do not feel threatened militarily by Germany, which is an increase by seven percent over the last decade. However every fourth respondent (25%) still associates Germany with a military threat, but also this group is numerously decreasing. Illustration 7. Could Germany become a military threat for Poland in the future? (in %) 5
By far the biggest disagreement among Poles can be observed when it comes to the question, whether Germany is a possible economical threat. The number of people, who see such a possible threat, is equal with the number of people, who negate such a possibility (both 47%). Illustration 8. Could Germany become an economic threat for Poland in the future? (in %) The majority of Poles (61%) does not see Germany as a political threat. The group of people, who have this opinion increased by ten percent over the last decade. Illustration12. Could Germany become a political threat for Poland in the future? (in %) 6
The survey was conducted by opinion research institute GfK on behalf of the Institute of Public Affairs during the period from the 12th until the 16th of February 2015 among a representative group of one thousand Poles. The publication: Agnieszka Łada, German-Polish Barometer 2015. The Polish view on German-Polish partnership in a common Europe, Institute of Public Affairs, Warsaw 2015 is available online in polish and German under: www.isp.org.pl Copyright by the Institute of Public Affairs 2015 Translation: Andreas Speiser The German-Polish Barometer is a common project of the Institute of Public Affairs and Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung in Poland. The aim of the project is a regular examination and presentation of Poles concerning the German- Polish relations as well as the challenges which have to be faced by the two states. 7