Niederschlag: Von der Messung zur Prognose

Transkript

1 Niederschlag: Von der Messung zur Prognose By Susanne Crewell and Nicole van Lipzig Meteorologisches Institut Universität München

2 What can you get out of this literature seminar: 1. Read and interpret scientific papers / textbooks 2. Search for scientific papers: 3. Write extended abstract before the seminar 4. Construct a presentation from literature / textbooks 5. Presentation skills. And of course learn more about precipitation

3 Niederschlag: von der Messung zur Prognose Ziele und Aufgabenstellung: Umfassende Bearbeitung* eines vorgegebenen Themas mit: Recherche aktueller Veröffentlichungen (web of science) Beschaffung von Literatur (aktuell und Standard) Extraktion relevanter Information aus der wiss. Literatur Erstellung einer klaren Präsentation (20 min) Nutzung technischer Hilfsmittel (powerpoint) Medienkompetenz Erstellung einer schriftlichen Zusammenfassung (2 Seiten) Extended Abstract für einen "Tagungsband" mündliche Zusammenfassung (5min=3 Folien) in englischer Sprache wissenschaftliche Diskussion Publikationen unter ftp.meteo.physik.uni-muenchen.de /pub/crewell/lit_seminar * Betreuer sollte 2-3 mal aufgesucht werden

4 Themen: Einführung * - allg. Bedeutung des Niederschlags in der Meteorologie (Wasserkreislauf) [Dai, 97] - Wolkenmikrophysik [Baker, 2001] * - orographischer Niederschlag [Jiang&Smith, 2003; Zängl 2004] * - konvektiver Niederschlag [Weckwerth, 2000; Klemp and Wilhelmso, 1978] Niederschlagsmessung * * - in situ Regenmesser und Fehleranalyse [Keim et al, 2005] - aktive Methoden (Radar) [Austin, 1987; Fabry 1992; Rinehart, 2001] - passive Methoden (VIS, IR, Mikrowellen) [Bennartz et al., 2002; Ferraro, 1997; Joyce 2004] Niederschlagsklimatologien - Stationszeitreihen - Globale Niederschlagsklimatologien (GPCP) [Huffman et al.,1997; Adler et al., 2003] * - Paläontologische Niederschlagsschätzung [Jones] Modellierung von Niederschlag - Nutzung von Beobachtungen zur Modellverifikation [Ebert&McBride, 2000; Ebert 2002] * - Verifikation von Niederschlagsvorhersagen [Yuan et al., 2005; Keil et al., ] - Verbesserung der Niederschlagsvorhersage [Fritsch&Carbone, 2004; Stoelinga et al., 2003] - Globale Modelle zum Verständnis des Wasserkreislaufs [Betts, 2004] - Zukünftige Änderung des Niederschlags [Trenberth et al., 2003; Palmer&Räisanen, 2002] * Bedeutung von Niederschlagsereignissen - Überflutungen [Milly et al., 2002; Muddelsee et al., 2003] * - Geophysik [Reiners et al., 2003] - Volkswirtschaft [Zhu et al., 2002]

5 2. Search for scientific papers: SET PROXY NETSCAPE: Edit/Preferences/Advanced/Proxies dann unter 'automatic Proxy configuration' eintragen. MS-EXPLORER: Extras/Internetoptionen/Verbindungen/LAN-Einstellungen (fast ganz unten... öffnet Dialogbox...) das Kontrollkästchen 'Automatisches Konfigurationsskript verwenden' aktivieren und als Adresse direkt darunter den Proxyserver eintragen. OPERA: Tools/Preferences/Network/Proxy servers/ dann unter 'Use automatic Proxy configuration' eintragen.

6 2. Search for scientific papers: WEB OF SCIENCE Click on: Web of Science Click on: General Search

7 2. Search for scientific papers

8 precipitation AND convection

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11 2. Search for scientific papers: GET THE PAPER a. Library b. Online journals Do NOT use proxy configuration' Click on: Bibliothek Click on: Zeitschriften Click on: Literatursuche im internet

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14 2. Search for scientific papers: GET THE PAPER pdf that you can read with acroread

15 5. Presentation Skills Title page Title of presentation, Name of the author, Institute, Table of contents Goal of the presentation e.g. research question Example: What are the efforts currently undertaken to improve the forecasts of precipitation? Context Example: Historical context, where are the gaps in our knowledge

16 Relevance of the topic Explain why the question posed above is a relevant question Description of measurements / definitions For example: How can precipitation be derived using radar measurements tell the story you want to tell Conclusions What have we learned, where are the gaps in knowledge, what needs to be done in the future

17 5. Presentation Skills Advices for the presenter: Make presentation readable for the audience: figures and text large enough, not too much text, and background not too bright Keep in time (practice your talk once to check this), about 15 slides for 20 min presentation Take your time: don t rush through, but take time to explain everything Make a storyline: don t make a summary of facts

18 5. Presentation Skills Advices for the audience: Is the material understandable. If not: ask for clarification! How does the presentation fit in with other things you know about the topic (for example cloud physics lecture): Discussion What can others learn from this presentation style (what was good) and how can the author improve his/her style

19 Zugspitze literature seminar: 1. Bring papers / textbooks with you to the Zugspitze 2. Write extended abstract. This should be printed and handed in 1 week before the seminar 3. Programme and extended abstract will be distributed to all participants

20 Literatur zum Meteorologischen Seminar SS 2005 Allg. Bedeutung des Niederschlags Dai A, DelGenio AD, Fung IY; Clouds, precipitation and temperature range, NATURE 386 (6626): APR Hobbs, P.V., 1978: Organization and structure of clouds and precipitation on the mesoscale and microscale in cyclonic storms. Rev. Geophys. Space Phys., 16, Baker M, Cloud physics - Inside history on droplets,nature 413 (6856): OCT Browning, K.A., 1990: Organisation and internal structure of synoptic and mesoscale precipitation systems in midlatitudes. In Battan Memorial Volume on Radar Meteorology, Ed.: D. Atlas, Amer. und verschiedene Lehrbücher, z.b. Wallace and Hobbs Orographischer Niederschlag Jiang QF, Smith RB, Cloud timescales and orographic precipitation, JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES 60 (13): JUL 2003 Zängl, G., 2004b, The sensitivity of simulated orographic precipitation to model components other than cloud microphysics, Quart. J. Roy. Met. Soc., 130, Medina,S and Houze, R.A., 2003: Air motions and precipitation growth in alpine storms, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 129, Konvektiver Niederschlag Newton, C.W., 1963: Dynamics of severe convective storms. Meteor. Monographs, 5, 27, Amer. Meteor.Soc., 33 pp. Klemp, J. B. and R. B. Wilhelmson (1978) The simulation of three-dimensional convective storm dynamics. J. Atmos. Sci., 35, Weckwerth, T.M. (2000) The effect of small-scale moisture variability on thunderstorm initiation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 128, 12,

21 Literatur zum Meteorologischen Seminar SS 2005 In situ Regenmesser und Fehleranalyse Keim BD, Fischer MR, Wilson AM, Are there spurious precipitation trends in the United States Climate Division database? GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 32 (4): Art. No. L04702 FEB Aktive Fernerkundung (Radar) Austin, P. M., Relation between measured radar reflectivity and surface rainfall, Mon. Wea. Rev., 115, , Fabry, F., G. L. Austin und D. Tees, The accuracy of rainfall estimates by radar as a function of range, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 118, , Rinehart, Ronald E., "Radar for Meteorologists", 3rd Edition, Rinehart Publications, 2001 Passive Fernerkundung Bennartz, R., A. Thoss, A. Dybbroe, and D.B. Michelson, 2002: Precipitation analysis using the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit in support of nowcasting applications. Meteorol. Appl., 9, Ferraro, R. R., 1997: SSM/I derived global rainfall estimates for climatological applications. J. Geophys. Res., 102, pp 16,715-16,735. Joyce, R. J., J. E. Janowiak, P. A. Arkin, and P. Xie, 2004: CMORPH: A method that produces global precipitation estimates from passive microwave and infrared data at high spatial and temporal resolution. J. Hydrometeor., 5, und Kapitel in Jansen "Microwave radiometry.." Stationszeitreihen und Globale Niederschlagsklimatologien Huffman GJ, Adler RF, Arkin P, et al. The Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) Combined Precipitation Dataset, BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY 78 (1): 5-20 JAN97 Huffman, G. J, R. F. Adler, M. M. Morrissey, D. T. Bolvin, S. Curtis, R. Joyce, B. McGavock, and J. Susskind, 2000: Global precipitation at one-degree daily resolution from multisatellite observations. J. Hydrometeorology, 2, ADLER, et al. The Version-2 Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) Monthly Precipitation Analysis (1979 Present), Journal of Hydrometeorology, 4, , 2003

22 Literatur zum Meteorologischen Seminar SS 2005 Paläoniederschlag Jones PD, Mann ME, Climate over past millennia, REVIEWS OF GEOPHYSICS 42 (2): Art. No. RG2002 MAY Beobachtungen zur Modellverifikation Ebert, E. E., VERIFYING SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES FOR WEATHER AND HYDROLOGICAL APPLICATIONS, IPWG, Ebert, E.E., U. Damrath, W. Wergen, and M. E. Baldwin, 2003: The WGNE Assessment of Short-term Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts. Bull. Amer. Met. Soc., 84, Ebert, E.E., and J. L. McBride, 2000: Verification of precipitation in weather systems: Determination of systematic errors. J. Hydrology, 239, Verifikation von Niederschlagsvorhersagen Yuan H, Mullen SL, Gao X, et al. Verification of probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts over the southwest United States during winter 2002/03 by the RSM ensemble system MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW 133 (1): JAN 2005 Keil C, Tafferner A, Mannstein H, et al. Evaluating high-resolution model forecasts of European winter storms by use of satellite and radar observations WEATHER AND FORECASTING 18 (5): OCT 2003 Verbesserung von Niederschlagsvorhersagen Stoelinga MT, Hobbs PV, Mass CF, et al. Improvement of microphysical parameterization through observational verification experiment, BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY 84 (12): DEC 2003 Fritsch JM, Carbone RE, Improving quantitative precipitation forecasts in the warm season - A USWRP research and development strategy, BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY 85 (7): 955+ JUL 2004

23 Literatur zum Meteorologischen Seminar SS 2005 Globale Modelle zum Verständnis des Wasserkreislaufs Betts AK, Understanding hydrometeorology using global models, BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY 85 (11): NOV 2004 Zukünftige Änderungen des Niederschlags Palmer TN, Ralsanen J, Quantifying the risk of extreme seasonal precipitation events in a changing climate, NATURE 415 (6871): JAN Trenberth, K. E., A. Dai, R. M. Rasmussen, and D. B. Parsons, 2003: The changing character of precipitation. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 84, Überflutungen Milly, P. C. D., R. T. Wetherald, K. A. Dunne, and T. L. Delworth, 2002: Increasing risk of great floods in a changing climate. Nature, 415, Mudelsee M, Borngen M, Tetzlaff G, et al. No upward trends in the occurrence of extreme floods in central Europe,NATURE 425 (6954): SEP Keil C, Volkert H, Majewski D, The Oder flood in July 1997: Transport routes of precipitable water diagnosed with an operational forecast model, GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 26 (2): JAN Geophysik Reiners PW, Ehlers TA, Mitchell SG, et al., Coupled spatial variations in precipitation and long-term erosion rates across the Washington Cascades,NATURE 426 (6967): DEC Volkswirtschaft Zhu YJ, Toth Z, Wobus R, et al., The economic value of ensemble-based weather forecasts, BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY 83 (1): 73+ JAN 2002