Prediction Market, 12th June 3rd July 2012 Information and Instructions. Prognosemärkte Lehrstuhl für Betriebswirtschaftslehre insbes.

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1 Prediction Market, 12th June 3rd July 2012 Information and Instructions S. 1

2 Welcome, and thanks for your participation Sensational prices are waiting for you 1000 Euro in amazon vouchers: The winner has the chance to get 100 EUR The 2nd and 3rd winner can be happy about 50 EUR 12x25 Euro vouchers 50x10 Euro vouchers The number of participants is small, so your odds are great! S. 2

3 The better your results...the higher your chances to win. Please notice! It doesn t matter if you are not the leader of the ranking, it always makes sense to take part. Prizes can be won by every participant. Every improvement increases your individual chance to win. In addition you have the chance to win 2 x 10 adidas shirts furthermore the winner can gain an original adidas soccer ball! S. 3

4 What is a prediction market? A prediction market is comparable with a real stock market Instead of real stocks you are going to trade with future events Events are for example elections, sport events or economic/financial crises. Actually, prediction markets are applicable for every topic It means in practice, if a trader feels that a predicted market share (e.g. of a party) is overrated, he will sell the shares. The other way round, he will buy the shares, if he thinks that the share value is underrated. S. 4

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6 What is a prediction market? This simple concept buy cheaply, sell expensively, increase you capital! can be used for any prediction market. It doesn t matter whether you have to forecast a political, economical or social event Traders just want to gain profits, nothing else! The participant with the highest earnings (respectively the highest yield) is the winner after market close In summary it can be said: A prediction market is a virtual instrument, which uses the collective intelligents to make the best prediction about a future event S. 6

7 Register now. It takes only two steps. Your personal data will always be handled in a confidential manner and will not be disclosed to third parties Link to markets: You have time to participate with immediate effect until July, 2 nd 2012 S. 7

8 Here, you can see the user interface in which you can operate. You ve got the possibility to trade in these markets. Click therefore on Trade. S. 8

9 Here you can trade the shares for the selected forecast. Click on Help to get further information, respectively move the mouse about the individual column names. S. 9

10 By clicking into the individual processing fields, a slider will appear. This slider makes possible to determine up to what value and to what extent you buy, respectively want to sell the shares. Alternatively you can enter the values manually. S. 10

11 After making you predictions, klick on Submit. Afterwards, you can see your particular order in the order book. Over the course of the experiment, you can additionally watch the orders made by other market participants. S. 11

12 Tip Trade in different markets. Make your bid and monitor it in the following days. Buying and selling do not cost a virtual fee. After changing your predictions you can immedite go on with trading. TIME PERIOD: 12th June nd July 2012 S. 12

13 To receive an overview of your shares, click on Depot. To get to the other markets, click on Predictions. S. 13

14 Tips for good trading: You can (and should) buy and sell as often as you want to. We recommand to monitor the different markets and to frequently adapt the wager. Do not forget to sell the shares to take profits. The best trader is the one who is as close as possible to the real results and holds many shares of this value, or who earned the most money. S. 14

15 Good luck! And thank you for helping us with our research! Quellen: - vgl. KENFORX GmbH (2012): kenforx.com - vgl. BDF-net Agentur für neue Medien GmbH (2012): wahlfieber.com Contact: Christian.Horn@uni-bamberg.de S. 15