Effects of climate change on tourism in selected regions of the Alps

Transkript

1 Virtual Alpine Observatory (VAO II) Effects of climate change on tourism in selected regions of the Alps Prof. Dr. J. Schmude, M.Sc. M. Bauer, Dr. M. Bischof, Dr. A. Böttger Chair for Economic Geography and Tourism Research (LMU München) Prof. Dr. R.M. Huber, Dr. K. Milger, J. Götschke Section Pneumology and Thoraric Oncology (Clinic of the LMU München)

2 Subproject Overview Topic, Partner and Associated Partner: Topic: Effects of climate change in the Alpine area on patients and tourists Partner: University of Munich, Department of Geography, Chair for Economic Geography and Tourism, Prof. Dr. Jürgen Schmude, M.Sc. Manuela Bauer, Dr. Michael Bischof, Dr. Antje Böttger University of Munich, Clinic of the University of Munich, Section Pneumology and Thoraric Oncology, Prof. Dr. Rudolf Maria Huber, Dr. Katrin Milger, Jeremias Götschke Associated Partner: European Academy of Bozen (EURAC), Institute for Regional Development and Location Management (Bozen, Italy), Dr. Thomas Streifeneder Clinic Bad Reichenhall, Section Pneumology, Prof. Dr. Konrad Schultz Cllinic Davos, Section Pneumology and Allergology, Prof. H.-W. Duchna 2

3 Project goals Main goal: Analysis of the effects of climate change on patients and tourists in the Alps Goals in tourism: Analysis of the perception and reaction of tourists and touristic providers regarding the impact of climate change in the Alps Comparison Northern and Southern Alps Goals in medicine: Analysis of the perception and reaction of chronic lung diseases with regard to the impact of climate change in the Alps Focus on the impact of different disease groups at different sites 3

4 Methodological approach and implementation Face-to-Face survey (tourists): Two selected destinations: Garmisch-Partenkirchen -> Example Northern Alps, Meran -> Example Southern Alps Survey periods: May and August 2015 Reached subjects: (909 tourists) Online survey (touristic providers): Two selected countries / regions: Germany -> Example Northern Alps, Italy -> Example Southern Alps Survey period: December 2015 Reached subjects: 58 providers Written survey (patients): Two selected clinics: Clinic Bad Reichenhall, Clinic Davos Survey period: November 2015 to August 2016 Reached subjects : 195 patients 4

5 Selected results tourists Perception of climate change in general (currently / in future, tourists / locals) Queried about the personal concern from 1 (not affected at all) to 4 (very affected), comparison tourists and locals (mean value) currently In future currently In future yes, very (4) General perception: rather yes (3) 3,13 3,10 - currently: not affected - in future: more affected 2,38 2,32 rather no (2) no, not at all (1) tourists (n=902) locals (n=618) coefficient of variation: 38,1% 26,1% 42,5% 28,6% Tourists are more sensitive than locals Current influence factors: personal or health concern (allergy, hay fever ) Future influence factors: personal or health concern (Allergy, hay fever ) and socio-demographic characteristics (age, education, gender ) 5

6 Selected results tourists Perception and reaction to concrete climate impacts by type of holiday (tourists) Queried about disturb (perception) and avoid (reaction) not avoiding (1) avoiding (2) Increase of heat days Less snow on ski slopes Less snow in general Increase of mosquitoes Increase of ticks Increased allergy risk Decrease of air quality Change of the landscape Increased risk of extreme weather relaxing holiday nature holiday active holiday culture holiday health holiday not disturbing (1) rather disturbing (2) disturbing (3) absolutely disturbing (4) Only slight differences between the market segments are recognizable Market segments in themselves not homogeneous -> (here) unsuitable for classification Partial contradictions between perception and reaction 6

7 Selected results tourists Derived tourism reaction types with regard to climate impacts (tourists) Cluster analysis on the reaction -> four homogeneous tourism reaction types not avoiding (1) avoiding (2) Increase of heat days Less snow on ski slopes Less snow in general Increase of mosquitoes Increase of ticks Increased allergy risk Decrease of air quality Change of the landscape Increased risk of extreme weather not disturbing (1) rather disturbing (2) disturbing (3) absolutely disturbing (4) Type 1: Hitze-Meider (Heat-Avoider) -> sensitivity to temperature rise (oldest cluster) Type 2: Schneemangel-Meider (Lack-of-Snow-Avoider) -> sensitivity to snow safety (young. c.) Type 3: MüZeAll-Meider (MoTiAll-Avoider) -> sensitivity to health risks Type 4: LandLuft-Meider (CountAir-Avoider) -> moderate type 7

8 Selected results tourists and provider Perception of concrete climate impacts (tourists/suppliers) Queried about disturb (tourists) and relevance (providers) not disturbing (1) rather disturbing (2) disturbing (3) absolutely disturbing (4) Increase of heat days Less snow on ski slopes Less snow in genaral Increase of mosquitoes Increase of ticks Increased allergy risk Decrease of air quality Change of the landscape Increased risk of extreme weather events tourists providers unimportant (1) rather unimportant (2) rather important (3) important (4) Different perception or focus between tourists and providers Providers show clear awareness of concrete climate impacts Exception: ticks and mosquitoes, here tourists are more sensitive 8

9 Selected results provider Reaction of the providers on the impacts of climate change (adaptation strategies of providers) Expansion of the indoor offer (hotel as a destination) Expansion of alternative outdoor activities (winter and summer tourism) Structural changes (new energy models, air conditioning, sun protection, etc.) Change of operating times (reorientation with regard to target groups, away from winter tourism, Southern Alps) 9

10 Contact Dr. Michael Bischof University of Munich, Department of Geography, Chair for Economic Geography and Tourism, Jeremias Götschke University of Munich, Clinic of the University of Munich, Section Pneumology and Thoraric Oncology, Markus Neumann, UFS VAO Coordinator: Project Management: Project Controlling: Prof. Dr. Michael Bittner Dipl.-Geogr. Andrea Reiter Bianca Wittmann German Aerospace Center / University of Augsburg Bavarian Research Alliance GmbH bifa Environmental Institute Phone: +49 (0) Phone: +49 (0) Phone: +49 (0) Michael.Bittner@dlr.de reiter@bayfor.org bwittmann@bifa.de The project Virtual Alpine Observatory (VAO): Development and Internationalization of the Virtual Alpine Observatory (VAO-II) at the Environment Research Station Schneefernerhaus (UFS) is funded by the Bavarian State Ministry of the Environment and Consumer Protection. 10

11 Appendix 11

12 Ausgewählte Ergebnisse Patientenbefragung Grundsätzliche Wahrnehmung (aktuell und künftig) des Klimawandels (Patienten) Abgefragt über die persönliche Betroffenheit Aktuell jeder zweite Patient betroffen Zukünftig potenziell 2/3 der Befragten. Einflussfaktoren: Vorliegen einer Allergie stärkere subjektive Beschwerden (hoher Leidensdruck) 12

13 Ausgewählte Ergebnisse Patientenbefragung Wahrnehmung und Reaktion (Patienten) auf konkrete Folgen des Klimawandels nach Erkrankung Abgefragt über stören (Wahrnehmung) und meiden (Reaktion) Nur geringe Unterschiede zwischen den Erkrankungsgruppe erkennbar Erhöhte Sensibilität auf direkte gesundheitlich spürbare Einflüsse (Allergierisiko bei Allergikern) 13

14 Verwertung der Ergebnisse Nutzen für Forschung: Grundlagenforschung: Tourismus: Wahrnehmung und Reaktion von Klimafolgen aus Sicht der Touristen in großer Fallzahl (Abfrage von konkreten Klimafolgen, Reaktionstypen) sowie Vergleich mit touristischen Anbietern. Medizin: Schaffung einer ersten Wissensbasis über relevante, klimatisch bedingte Einflussfaktoren für die Behandlung und über die Lebensqualität von chronisch kranken Lungenpatienten. Offenlegung weiteren Forschungsbedarfs: Akquirierung Nachfolgeprojekt Gesundheitstourismus im Alpenraum (EU-Interreg) sowie Nutzung der Erkenntnisse für weitere Forschungsprojekte (Tourismus und Medizin) Praxis: (Weitere) Aufklärung betroffener Akteure Klimaanpassungsstrategien für touristische Anbieter sowie Rehabilitationseinrichtungen Entscheidungshilfe für die Politik, Steuerung von Klimaanpassungsstrategien oder gesundheitspolitische Maßnahmen 14

15 Verwertung der Ergebnisse Mögliche Präsentationen und Tagungen: Effects of climate change on tourism in selected regions of the Alps. VAO- Symposium 2017, Bozen, , Präsentation der Ergebnisse. Autor: Bischof, M. / Götschke, J. Klimawandel und Tourismus Wahrnehmung und Reaktion von Anbietern und Nachfragern. 2. Kongress Alpiner Gesundheitstourismus, Tegernsee, Mai 2016, Präsentation der Ergebnisse. Autor: Bischof, M. Einfluss des Klimawandels auf chronisch Lungenkranke. 49. Bad Reichenhaller pneumologisches Kolloquium, Juni 2017, Präsentation der Ergebnisse. Autor: Götschke, J. Geplante Publikationen (wissenschaftliche Aufsätze): Bischof, M./ Schmude, J. (201x): Perception and Reaction switching activities or destinations. Bischof, M. / Schmude, J. (201x): Klimawandel und Tourismus Anbieter und Nachfrager im Vergleich. Götschke, J. / Huber, RM / Milger, K. (201x): Individual concern of climate change to patients with chronic lung disease. 15