Wolfgang Stegmüller. Philosophical Roots of the Institute of Statistics. Workshop on History of Statistics. By Almond Stöcker

Transkript

1 Wolfgang Stegmüller Philosophical Roots of the Institute of Statistics Workshop on History of Statistics By Almond Stöcker

2 Overview Who is Wolfgang Stegmüller? Sketch of his work in philosophy of statistics Theoretical induction and statistics Statistical probability as theoretic term comparative evidential logic Interviews with Margret Stegmüller C. Ulises Moulines Folie 2/15

3 Who is Wolfgang Stegmüller? one of the most important representatives of philosophy of science and analytic philosophy [in the German-speaking world] (Obituary of R. Kleinknecht) Co-founder of the Institute of Statistics and Philosophy of Science in Munich Adapted from the obituary Folie 3/15

4 Who is Wolfgang Stegmüller? Philosophy of Science Structuralism Epistemology, Logic, Analytic Philosophy 35 PhD and 10 habilitation students: C.U. Moulines J. Nida-Rümelin Adapted from the obituary Folie 4/15

5 Timeline Offers of a professorship at the universities of Innsbruck, Pennsylvania, Konstanz, Bonn and Graz Folie 5/15

6 Probleme und Resultate der Wissenschaftstheorie und Analytischen Philosophie, Band IV: Personelle und statistische Wahrscheinlichkeit Personal and Statistical Probability

7 Personelle und statistische Wahrscheinlichkeit Introduction: Enormous gap between Philosophical and logical analysis Reflections of mathematical statisticians Philosophers may only overcome this gap with great modesty and impartiality Folie 7/15

8 Induction and Probability Practical induction: a) Which norms do apply to rational acting? b) How can these norms be justified? Theoretic induction: a) How is the confirmation of a hypothesis to be defined? b) How can the adequacy of this definition be justified? Personel Probability Statistical Probability Folie 8/15

9 Statistical Probability as theoretic term A theoretical term cannot be defined outside of the theory Measurable quantities define explains Statistical Probability Statistical model is meant to explain observed data Probabilities have to be understood with respect to the underlying model e.g. a persons statistical probability of suffering from cancer refers to the particular model under consideration Folie 9/15

10 Approach to the theoretical problem of induction The Comparative Evidential Logic Die komparative Stützungslogik Statistical inference based on likelihood If likelihood of hypothesis A exceeds likelihood of B, there is more evidence for hypothesis A than for B Systematic reference to underlying statistical assumptions as superordinate hypothesis ( Oberhypothese ) Referring to Hacking s logic of statistical inference Folie 10/15

11 Results of the interviews with Margret Stegmüller and C. Ulises Moulines on the motivations for the foundation of the institute

12 Margret Stegmüller Wolfgang Stegmüller s wife Collaboration of Stegmüller and Weichselberger only coincidental Administrative independency for both Personal friendship Folie 12/15

13 C. Ulises Moulines Stegmüller s academic successor University politics: conflict with Spaemann analytic vs. other philosophy search for administrative independency Genuine statistical interest: lectures on related subjects work unique in literature on philosophy of statistics Folie 13/15

14 C. Ulises Moulines Stegmüller s academic successor Collaboration of statisticians and philosophers: Each offered as minor subject for students of the other Continuity in mutual interest e.g. Weichselberger and Augustin participate at the Wednesday colloquium Folie 14/15

15 Thank you very much! And special thanks to M. Stegmüller and C. U. Moulines Practical induction Theoretical induction Statistical probability Comparative evidential logic Theoretical term Folie 15/15

16 Sources Interviews with Margret Stegmüller and C. Ulises Moulines University archive Munich: Bürokorrespondenz (Datum der Inst.-Gründ. aus VL14 und VL16) Berufungsakte zur Nachfolge Wenzel Signatur B Personalakte Wolfgang Stegmüller Signatur E-II-3235 Reinhard Kleinknecht: Nachruf Auf Wolfgang Stegmüller, 1993, Journal for General Philosophy of Science, Vol. 24 (1) In Wolfgang Stegmüller: Probleme und Resultate der Wissenschaftstheorie und Analytischen Philosophie: Band IV, 1973, Studienausgabe, Springer- Verlag : Introduction to Part A: Das ABC der modernen Wahrscheinlichkeitstheorie und Statistik Part D: Jenseits von Popper und Carnap : Die logischen Grundlagen des statistischen Schließens Folie 16/15