POLAND - Macroperspective

Transkript

1 60325 Frankfurt Frankfurt, Your Contact: Tel.: Mobil: , D Frankfurt/Main Dr. Kalliwoda Research Warschau POLAND - Macroperspective Only just under twenty-six years ago, polish economy slowly transformed from the state, centrally-planned economy to the market based one. In the early 90s the country was one of the poorest in the region with raging inflation, growing unemployment and huge structural problems coming from legacy of the previous economic system. However the shock therapy implemented by then authorities, privatization of state-owned companies, gradual reforms and devaluation of currency slowly brought revival to the tormented economy. This effort was appreciated and only 15 years after the communism has fallen down in Poland, it joined the European Union, together with other central European countries. During all those years of political freedom and market based economy, Poland has experienced an outstanding growth - it doubled its real GDP and reached 60 percent of the Western European average from only 32 percent in the 90s. Moreover, Poland was the unique example of the country in the European Union, which economy has not fallen into recession during both Financial Crisis of 2007 and European Sovereign Crisis. (McKinsey 2015)

2 Current Situation Nowadays, the country is getting slowly back on the right track and growth is gaining momentum after the slide down to 1.7% GDP growth in (Eurostat) The results for 2014 are more optimistic 3.3% GDP growth, even though of negative impact of Ukraine Crisis, Russian import sanctions and mimic economic growth in Eurozone, which is reflected in lower demand for polish export. Source: Eurostat and European Commission There are still external risks to the economic growth, like the development of the situation behind the eastern border, i.e. in Ukraine conflict and Russian sanctions on imported products. Moreover, the inflation is on historic low levels (currently negative), which is not easing the fiscal consolidation under the Excessive Deficit Procedure imposed by the European Commission. On the other hand, Poland has strong economic fundamentals. Positive signals are coming from the labour market as the unemployment rate is falling down consecutive since Moreover, the banking sector seems to be healthy and resilient to shocks as showed the stress test assessed in 2014 by the National Central Bank of Poland (NBP). The growth of polish economy is expected to continue based on rising real disposable income of households and thus growing domestic consumption, inflow of European Union funds from new budget for years , improving condition in the Eurozone countries and especially Poland s main trade partner Germany, and last but not least expected change in export mix due to Ukrainian crisis, will probably results in new worldwide markets for polish export and its increase.

3 Financial Market Privatization, big size of the economy and market oriented reforms resulted in the fact, that Poland has also significantly big and important financial market. Warsaw Stock Exchange WSE, has a long history coming as long as back to the nineteenth century, however the modern stock exchange started its activity in 1991 with only 5 companies listed. (GPW) Nowadays it is the leader among all the Central European financial markets in terms of IPOs and market capitalisation, with total 900 companies listed on both main and alternative (NewConnect) markets. (World Federation of Exchanges) In 2013 there were total 54 IPOs on the WSE and thus WSE was placed on the second position in Europe, after LSE, with regard to the number of public offerings. In terms of IPO value, WSE was on the 5th place among European stock exchanges (1.13 bn euro worth IPO). The Warsaw Stock Exchange has also significant market of derivatives, fast growing corporate and non-corporate bond market and also small, but important energy and commodity exchange platform. (Ministry of Treasury, Republic of Poland) Having in mind the positive outlook for polish economic growth in the next years, it can be carefully assumed that the financial market will follow the growth and join the positive trend seen right now, inter alia, on German DAX. Sources: Central Statistical Office of Poland: European Commision (2015), Commission Staff Working Document, Country Report Poland Eurostat: GPW: IMF (2014), Republic of Poland: Concluding Statement of an IMF Staff Visit McKinsey&Company (2015), Poland 2025: Europe s new growth engine Ministry of Treasury, Republic of Poland, Macroeconomic Analysis of Polish Economy: NBP - National Bank of Poland: World Federation of Exchanges:

4 Dr. Kalliwoda Conference Site : Intercontinental-Hotel Yours faithfully, Dr. Kalliwoda Team Warschau, Managing Partner, Dipl.-Kfm., CEFA

5 DR. KALLIWODA RESEARCH, FRANKFURT/MAIN, CEO Skyline Frankfurt Dr. Kalliwoda Research in FfM Dr. Kalliwoda Research, Office Frankfurt Photography 2015: DR. KALLIWODA RESEARCH, WARSCHAU Palace of Culture and Science Our Conference in Warsaw/Team-member. Dr. Kalliwoda Team Warsaw Warsaw City, Palace of Culture Photography 2015: