Demographic change in Europe In search of new policies and strategies

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1 Demographic change in Europe In search of new policies and strategies Bernhard Müller Paulina Schiappacasse Severine Mayere Lehrstuhl für Raumentwicklung der and Leibniz-Institut für ökologische Raumentwicklung (IÖR) 31/3/ What do we talk about? 2. What do we know? 3. What do we want? 4. What are we doing? 5. What do we have to do?

2 1. What do we talk about? Shrinking Cities as a consequence of economic decline and structural change? as a consequence of demographic change? Declining Cities

3 Shrinking Cities as a consequence of economic decline and structural change? as a consequence of demographic change? Declining Not declining Shrinking Not shrinking Economic decline and structural change: Structural Funds Source: EU Commission 2003

4 LEADER+ (France) Source: DATAR, CNASEA, UNA 2003 URBAN Source: EU Commission 2003

5 National Urban Initiatives France Loi relative à la solidarité et au renouvellement urbain (2000) Contrat de ville Grand projets urbains Pact de relance Source: LUDA Project, IÖR 2005 Italy Piano regolatore general Programmi complesi Patto territoriale Programmi integrati Contratti di quartiere Programmazione negoziata Source: LUDA Project, IÖR 2005

6 Great Britain New Deal for Communities (1998) Urban Development Areas Urban Development Corporations Enterprise Zones Single Regeneration Budget Source: LUDA Project, IÖR 2005 Shrinking Cities as a consequence of economic decline and structural change? as a consequence of demographic change!

7 2. What do we know about demographic change? Demographic change a European phenomon Population development in Europe ( ) Source: BBR 2003

8 European children, 2000 Low fertility

9 Ageing : Elderly people (65-79): % Very elderly people (80+): % : EU will lack 20.8 million (6.8 per cent) of working age population In 2030: Roughly two active people (15-65) will have to take care of one inactive person (65+). (Green Paper on Demographic Change, 2005) Migration: Inter-regional and inter-municipal migration: Zero-sum situation Immigration: Replacement debate and socio-cultural intergration

10 We also know: Europe is the only continent with this problem 2. What do we know about demographic change and its consequences for cities and regions?

11 Labour market Housing market Social infrastructure Technical infrastructure Transportation Finance 3. What do we want?

12 Quality of life Opportunities Sustainability Framework conditions Socio-economic situation Institutional system Financial resources

13 4. What are we doing? European level: Green Paper Confronting demographic change: A new solidarity between the generations Better integration of young people A global approach to the working life cycle A new place for elderly people Solidarity with the very elderly No spatial reference: Demographic and urban-regional policies are not interlinked

14 National level Policies addressing Ageing (active ageing), e.g. pension provisions, labour market, social benefits Gender, e.g. labour market, work flexibility Families, e.g. family friendly employment, family support, reproductive health initiatives, child benefits Migration, e.g. replacement immigration Social security reforms Labour force policies Health care policies No spatial differentiation Regional level Recent discussion Not many examples of policies Great Britain: Northern Regions: Ageing policies (Regions for All Ages) North West England: Ageing policy (5050 Vision), monitoring, sensitising regional policies for ageing issues, engaging older people in governance; input to regional economic strategy Wales: Strategy for Older People Scotland: Fresh Talent Initiative; targetting young immigrants

15 Spain: Catalonia, Madrid, Galicia, Basque country: Family policies France: Limousin: Cellule d Accueil; oriented towards accompanying migration Germany: Ongoing discussion (started in Eastern Germany) Including spatial development aspects in a broader sense; regional adjustment strategies In general: Regional initiatives are rather diverse country specific mainly ameliorative Local level For a long time: three monkeys behaviour Recent debate: political cost, lack of incentives Initiatives, not policies Diversity of approaches Attraction of new inhabitants: shrinkage reversal strategies Dealing with problems: crisis management Germany: e.g. local family initiatives, integrated urban restructuring programmes

16 5. What do we have to do? Understand the specific local challenges of demographic change in European countries Incorporate issues of demographic change into urban strategies Foster communication and regional cooperation Initiate model projects Exchange experience

17 Demographic change in Europe In search of new policies and strategies Thankyouverymuchforyourattention! Bernhard Müller Paulina Schiappacasse Severine Mayere