ZUKUNFTSORIENTIERTE TECHNOLOGIEANALYSE EIN ZUKUNFTSBILD DER LOGISTIK

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1 Objektiv. Neutral. Wirtschaftlichste Lösung Seite 1

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3 Identifikation von Technologien und deren beschreibende Fähigkeiten Auswahl von Technologien und deren beschreibende Fähigkeiten Technologie - bewertung Modellentwicklung Seite 3 Quelle: Boe-Lillegraven, S., & Monterde, S. (2015). Exploring the cognitive value of technology foresight: The case of the Cisco Technology Radar. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 101, and Halicka, Katarzyna. "Innovative classification of methods of the Future-oriented Technology Analysis." Technological and Economic Development of Economy 22.4 (2016):

4 Systematische Literaturrecherche Zweck und Ziel - Analyse von Forschungsarbeiten für die Identifikation von Entwicklungen - Qualitative Studie um Erkenntnisse aus Forschungsfeldern zu erhalten - Zusammengefasste Beschreibung von Entwicklungen Quellen - Datenbanken: EBSCO, Emerald ProQuest, Science Direct, Taylor and Francis, EconBiz, Google Scholar, ( ) - Logistikspezifische Fachzeitschriften mit hohem Impact Factor, bspw.: - International Journal of Production Economics - Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review - Journal of Business Logistics ( ) - Forschungsprojekte, akademische Konferenzen, Zukunftsforschung Studie - 41 Forschungsaufsätze bilden die Grundlage der Studie - 82 Technologien wurden identifiziert - Identifizierte Forschungsschwerpunkte: Physical Internet, City logistics, Robotic assembly systems, Supply Chain Management Systems, ( ) Seite 4 Quelle: RASHMAN, L., WITHERS, E. and J. HARTLEY Organizational learning and knowledge in public service organizations: A systematic review of the litera-ture. International Journal of Management Reviews, 11(4), pp LANDSCHÜTZER, C., EHRENTRAUT, F. and D. JODIN Containers for the Physical Internet: Requirements and engineering design related to FMCG logistics. Logistics Research, 8(1), pp

5 (12) Smart Supply Chain Management SC pooling, SC cooperation, e-supply Chain, Open logistics network ( ) (11) Big data Big data analytics, Data analytics ( ) (10) Information and Communication Technology Distributed ledger system, Smart contract, Communication protocols ( ) (7) Smart factory Predictive maintenance Intelligent factories ( ) (6) Additive manufacturing 3D-printing Rapid manufacturing ( ) (8) Autonomous vehicles Autonomous drones Autonomous electric vehicles ( ) (3) Conveying system Cellular Agile grid Plug-and-Play ( ) (2) Smart object Autonomous Self-managed Auto-ID ( ) (1) Container Standardized Modular Interlocking ( ) (4) Handling system Cellular Mobile Pick-and-Place ( ) (9) Urban logistics Crowd logistcs Pipeline logistics High-speed container subways ( ) Seite 5 (5) Smart support Wearables Augmented reality application ( )

6 Future potential estimation Cumulative patent application count Emerging Growth Maturity Saturation Totally disagree Totally agree Search traffic Positive trend Pacing tech. Key tech. Base tech. Erzeugung von neuem Wissen New tech. Time Expertenmeinung Negative trend Time Indikator für Forschungsaktivitäten und Technologieentwicklungsstufen Patentanalyse Online Suchinteresse Indikator für das Adaptions- und Verbraucherverhalten Seite 6 Quelle: ERNST, H The use of patent data for technological forecasting: the diffusion of CNC-technology in the machine tool industry. Small business economies, 9(4), pp

7 1200 Smart object Patent applications Smart object Search traffic Positive trend Emerging Early growth Growth Number Cumulative number Seite 7 Quelle:

8 Search traffic* (1) Container; FP: 2,33 (5) Smart support; FP: 3,89 (9) Urban logistics; FP: 3,11 (7) Smart factory; FP: 4,00 (4) Handling system; FP: 3,89 (2) Smart object; FP: 4,33 (6) Additive manufacturing; FP: 4,00 (8) Autonomous vehicles; FP: 4,11 (10) ICT; FP: 3,56 (11) Big data; FP: 4,33 10 (12) SSCM; FP: 3,22 (3) Conveying system; FP: 3, Emerging Early growth Early Growth Maturity Saturation maturity Seite 8 *Search traffic: metric between 0 and 100; 0: no search traffic; 100: extremely high search traffic;bubbles seize; Future potential (FP) expert estimation within the next 5 years; 1: low potential; 5: high potential; Hatching bubbles: interquartile range of >1

9 Search traffic* Question mark (1) Container; FP: 2,33 (5) Smart support; FP: 3,89 (9) Urban logistics; FP: 3,11 (12) SSCM; FP: 3,22 (7) Smart factory; FP: 4,00 Stable (4) Handling system; FP: 3,89 (3) Conveying system; FP: 3,56 (2) Smart object; FP: 4,33 Basis High potentials (6) Additive manufacturing; FP: 4,00 (8) Autonomous vehicles; FP: 4,11 (10) ICT; FP: 3,56 (11) Big data; FP: 4, Emerging Early growth Early Growth Maturity Saturation maturity Seite 9 *Search traffic: metric between 0 and 100; 0: no search traffic; 100: extremely high search traffic;bubbles seize; Future potential (FP) expert estimation within the next 5 years; 1: low potential; 5: high potential; Hatching bubbles: interquartile range of >1

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