Wissenschaftliche Politikberatung für globale Nachhaltige Entwicklung

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1 Wissenschaftliche Politikberatung für globale Nachhaltige Entwicklung Dirk Messner Berlin, Mai 2012

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3 Konvergenz oder Divergenz in der Weltwirtschaft? - Ende der postkolonialen Ära - Governance - Bildung/ Gesundheit -Lernen/ Wissen IT et al. Subramanian

4 Why a global low carbon transformation? We simply can`t scale up the existing growth patterns (Michael Spencer) 9 billion people in 2050 Global GDP of 60 trillion US % (2010) 180 trillion US $ 2030/40 Growing global middle classes Impacts of dangerous climate change are well known Planetary boundaries

5 We simply can not Kipp-Punkte im Erdsystem Planetary boundaries

6 Das alte Erdsystem... Das neue Erdsystem #6

7 Seit Ende des 20./ Beginn des 21. Jahrhunderts: Mensch als dominierende ökologische Kraft im Erdsystem (Paul Crutzen) - Neues Weltbild: Ethik der globalen commons globale Gerechtigkeit/ Fairness Weltblick, Weltgesellschaft Erdsystem Perspektive - Natur, - Sozial-, Ingenieurswissenschaften - statt Spezialisierung, Problemorientierung, Interdisziplinarität (grüne Transformation) - Laboratorium der Vergangenheit Zukunft - Innovationen in der Erforschung internationaler Kooperation

8 750 Gigatons Huge time pressure Transformation needs to be global: 2,5 t per capita countries beyond 2 tons

9 Italy during the last Ice Age ( years ago)... and during the last Hot Age (2 million years ago)

10 Is human mankind able to develop global we identities, globally shared intentionalities? Power? Culture? In-group mechanisms? Humans putting their heads together in shared cooperative activities are thus the originators of human culture. Michael Tomasello (2009), Why we cooperate, 99 Can we scale that up globally?

11 Robin Dunbar`s 150 pattern... Managing social complexity Are there cognitive boundaries to develop empathy, weidentities, social intentionality, trust globally? -Transnational networks urgently needed - If the majority of people are only taking part in local/ national networks: no hope for legitimate global governance - Role of the www, new social media?

12 R. Fogel (1992): technophysio evolution Neue Globalisierung post westliche Ordnung (G 20/ ) Anthropozän Globale Kommunikationsinfrastrukturen 13

13 Wissenstransfer Unabhängigkeit Wissenschaftliche Redlichkeit/ Transparenz Spannungsfeld Nähe-Distanz zwischen Berater und Entscheidungsträger 14

14 Grenzen der Beratung kennen Eigenschaften globaler Systemrisiken Komplexität Unsicherheit Ambiguität Neue Zeitskalen für Politik, Gesellschaft, Wirtschaft Wissensbasierte Politik stärken (insb. In EL); Unsicherheit strukturieren Vorsorgeprinzip (Grenzen/ Leitplanken) Diskursive Strategien ausbauen (Korridore/ Optionen) Anreizstrukturen für langfristiges Handeln Wissenschaft irrt sich und korrigiert sich - Diversität als Vorteil

15 The WBGU Budget Approach Transparent climate policy + Fair climate partnerships with developing countries + Efficiency oriented framework for a low carbon global economy Global regime: - clear signals towards low carbon - speed up low carbon investments - avoid leakage debate and climate protectionism - create trust based on joint rule 16

16 Burden sharing fairness/ developmentel oriented improving carbon efficiency 67 %: Gt CO2 100 tons per capita In 20 Jahren verbraucht (Emissionsniveau 2008) 17

17 Globale Gerechtigkeitsfragen Tabelle 5.3-2

18 Financial flows: billion Euros ( 1t: euros) 19

19 Great transformations in the history of human mankind History Neolithic revolution emergence of agriculture Industrial revolution The fossil energy era Industrial Present Transformation Global needs to be managed/ organized: new social contract / new narrative Time pressure very long term p Agricultural A.D. Tool Making 5000 B.C. Source: R. Kates (1997) after E. Deevey (1960) Years Before Present

20 Managing the Transformation Trajectory Since the 1970s: we do have a problem : Limits to Growth Rio 1992 Source: based on Grin et al., 2010 Driving the transformation scale: from pilots to systems acceleration setting the course: long-term perspectives towards 2050 (roadmaps) from sector to system reforms (cities, mobility, energy, lifestyle) Building a low carbon society beyond policy reforms

21 Co-Evolution, a social contract for sustainability. transformational policies mechanisms of change Arenas and drivers of transformation: 1. New narrative 2. Actors 3. Innovation 4. Policy regime 5. International context 6. Shifting norms / values Social contract Co-evolution interaction between 1-6 mutual reinforcement from critical masses to accumulation of mutiple dynamics co-evolution strengthening low carbon: legitimacy concepts power alliances it works examples II. Vision: low carbon narrative scaling up acceleration global diffusion of low carbon concepts I. Legitimacy of BAU eroding Transformational policies Low carbon becoming the main driving force / new mainstream

22 Reactions Positive Broad discussion in media ( green narrative ) Interest from all political parties (Germany/Europe) Interaction with all relevant ministries/chancellor office Discussions with business sector Science year 2012/Germany: Sustainability + planetary boundaries North Rhine Westphalia: How to position the NRW science system based on the Report Strong international interest (IGOs, or different scientific communities) Criticism Strong reaction from high carbon sectors (damaging German competitiveness) Pro-active state?/governance optimism/ we can t manage this complexity Great Transformation: arrogance of scientists; science shouldn t define goals for societies/ economies, life style ( eco dictatorship ) We can t finance that Will the green trend survive the global (financial) crisis? Climate impacts: Aren t you exaggerating?

23 Thank you for your attention! Prof. Dr. Dirk Messner Director of the German Development Institute / Deutsches Institut für Entwicklungspolitik (DIE) Tulpenfeld 6 D Bonn Telephone: +49 (0) DIE@die-gdi.de Vice Chair of the German Advisory Council on Global Change / Wissenschaftlicher Beirat der Bundesregierung Globale Umweltveränderungen (WBGU) Luisenstraße 46 D Berlin Telephone: +49 (0) wbgu@wbgu.de