Role of photovoltaics in the future energy mix: What comes after the current regulations?

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1 Role of photovoltaics in the future energy mix: What comes after the current regulations? Hochschule für Technik und Wirtschaft HTW Berlin 2nd Inverter and PV System Technology Forum January 2012 Berlin

2 High Risk Areas +7 m Hamburg Berlin +70 m graphic: Norbert Geuder, DLR 2

3 Global Requirements for Climate Protection Hochschule für Technik und Wirtschaft Berlin Mt reduction path for the two degree target energy CO2 emissions related to former CO 2 emissions data: WRI, IEA, PIK-Potsdam 3

4 German Government Electricity Supply Targets Prognosis based on the Energy Concept of the Federal Government 700 prognosis ross elec ctricity demand in TWh nuclear power fossil power or import renewables g Grafik: Michael Hüter 4

5 800 Gross Electricity Demand in Germany HTW Scenario: Climate Protection and Sustainable Development 20 % 100 % 700 Gross ele ectricity de emand in TWh to 30%??? fossil power nuclear power import (renewable) photovoltaic wind power geothermal power biomass hydropower

6 Potential for Photovoltaic Systems in Germany Hochschule für Technik und Wirtschaft Berlin open space 37,5 GW p total: 203 GW p 175 TWh/a traffic routes 59GW 5,9 p facades 30 GW p roofs 129,5 GW p 7 GW is equal to 1 % solar share. 203 GW can cover 29 %. 6

7 Influence of Annual PV Instalations 220 GW PV share GW p.a. pa % 7 GW p.a. 6 GW p.a. 5 GW p.a GW p.a. 11% GW p.a. 7

8 Thesis I Hochschule für Technik und Wirtschaft Berlin For a sustainable energy supply we have to become carbon dioxide free until Otherwise we risk to sink our costal cities. In the longer term we risk a sea level rise of up to 70 meters. To establish a carbon dioxide free electricity supply in Germany we need 20 to 30 % PV (i.e. 200 GW in total) and an annual installation rate of 8 GW. 8

9 Dental Chart 70 GW Grid-Connected PV in Germany Possible Generation During a Spring Week MW PV wind (offshore) wind (onshore) geothermal power biomass hydro power medium and peak load PV medium and peak load 0 Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun 9

10 Thesis II Hochschule für Technik und Wirtschaft Berlin If we install more than 50 to 60 GW of gridconnected PV in Germany there will be excess generation during some hours. At that t point it does not make much sense to install more grid-connected systems. It is highly probable that EEG will stop to prefer photovoltaic systems. 10

11 Development of Electricity Prices ct/kwh coal or nuclear power PV Germany, roof PV Germany, open space PV North Africa 80 wind power domestic electricity price 60 grid parity power station 40 parity

12 Share of Private Use for PV systems sh hare of private use 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% type of household 2 persons, retirees 4 persons, family 3 persons, family 1 person, student 10% Data: Steve Linke HTW Berlin 0% PV power in kwp 12

13 Grid-connected PV Battery System

14 Grid-connected PV Battery System ct/kwh +24 ct/kwh 50% x + 50% x 15 ct/kwh 39 ct/kwh = 27 ct/kwh Potential: 35 GW >27 ct/kwh 3 ct/kwh 14

15 Cost Development of Domestic Fuels Assumptions: Boiler efficiency 80%, calorific value of fuel oil 10.5 kwh/l ct/kw Wh domestic PV -5%.p.a domestic PV -10% p.a. domestic PV -15% p.a. domestic fuel oil +5%.p.a. domestic fuel oil +3% p.a. domestic fuel oil +1% p.a

16 Photovoltaic Heating System

17 Photovoltaic Heating System 14 ct/kwh 2016 >12 ct/kwh 25 % 14 ct/kwh Potential: 12 ct/kwh 50 % >29 ct/kwh 3ct/kWh 25 % >90 GW 17

18 Thesis III Hochschule für Technik und Wirtschaft Berlin Staring from the year 2015 systems for private use will be fully competitive i even if the feed-in tariff will go down below 3 ct/kwh. In the year 2020 the potential ti for domestic systems is in the range of 100 GW. Hence, PV will provide an important part for climate protection in Germany. Let s speed up this development. 18

19 Thank you for your Attention Book and web recommendation 19