Die Energiewende: Status quo und zukünftige Entwicklungen

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1 1 Die Energiewende: Status quo und zukünftige Entwicklungen Prof. Dr. Georg Erdmann TU Berlin; Chair Energy Systems Member of the Federal Commission Energie der Zukunft Energiegespräche der TU Wien, 4. März 2014

2 2 Ziele der Energiewende und deren Erreichbarkeit

3 3 German Energy Concept 2050 [September 2010] Political target Base year Greenhouse gas emissions % 55% 70% 80-95% Primary energy consumption % 50% Energy productivity 2.1% p.a. Power consumption % 25% CHP electricity share 25% Heat demand of building stock % Primary energy in building stock 80% Modernization rate of buildings 2% p.a. Final energy in transportation % 40% Number of electric vehicles 1 Mio 6 Mio REN share in energy consumption Price for more nuclear 18% 30% 45% 60% REN electricity share 35% 50% 65% 80%

4 4 Gross Power Generation in Germany [Source: AGEB] Gross electricity generation [TWh] REN Oil Hard coal Lignite Gas Nuclear Other

5 5 Renewable Electricity in Germany [Source AGEB] Electricity generation [TWh] Biomass PV Wind Hydro

6 6 Direkte EEG-Kosten

7 7 Unsere 2012-Prognose der EEG-Umlage [berechnet im Juni 2012 entsprechend dem EEG-2012] EEG-Umlage [Euro/kWh] 0,08 0,06 Die EEG-Umlage des Jahres 2014 in Höhe von 6,24 ct/kwh enthält neben der Kernumlage von 5,15 ct/kwh zusätzlich 1,1 ct/kwh realisiert Prognose von Juni ,04 - zur Aufstockung der Liquiditätsreserve 0,02 - für den Ausgleich der aufgelaufenen Defizite auf dem ÜNB-Umlagekonto 0,

8 8 EEG-Umlage als Folge der BesAR [berechnet nach EEG-2012 vor EEG-Reform 2014] 0,08 EEG-Umlage [Euro/kWh] Berechnung im Februar ,06 Insbesondere die Ausweitung der Besonderen Ausgleichsregel führt zu einer höheren EEG-Umlage Prognose von Juni ,04 0,02 0,

9 Bruttozahlungen inkl. Wert des direkt vermarkteten Stroms [Mio. Euro] Bruttokosten der EEG-Erzeugung [berechnet nach Eckpunktepapier vom ] Photovoltaik Offshore Onshore Deponie- und Grubengas Wasser Biomasse, Biogas

10 10 30'000 Brutto- und Nettokosten der EEG-Förderung [berechnet nach Eckpunktepapier vom ] Aufteilung der Bruttozahlungen [Mio. Euro] 25'000 20'000 15'000 Nettozahlungen für EEG-Elektrizität 10'000 5'000 Wert der direkt Börsenvermarkteten EEG-Elektrizität erlöse

11 Durchschnittliche EEG-Vergütungszahlungen [berechnet nach Eckpunktepapier vom ] Kosten [Euro/MWh] Durchschnittliche Bruttovergütung von EEG-Anlagen Baseload Day-ahead-Preis

12 12 Direkte und indirekte EEG-Kosten

13 13 Ordered Day-ahead Prices in Day-ahead price [EUR/MWh] without wind + PV: Ø = /MWh Δ = 8.53 /MWh Without wind: Ø = /MWh Day-ahead price 2012: Ø = /MWh Hours

14 14 Direct and Indirect Support of Renewables New installations January 2014 [Euro/MWh] Onshore wind Offshore wind PV Biogas Biomethan Net support (Feed-in./. Market value) Gas grid iintegration of bio-methane 22 Avoided costs of gas grids 19 Extension electricity distribution grid Extension electricity transmission grid Offshore grid 26 Offshore levy 3 Short term merit order effect Backup capacity Transmission losses Total Thereof for electricity Thereof for heat / gas grid 20 70

15 15 Breakdown of the German Electricity Bill Change share [bn. ] [bn. ] [bn. ] 2011/2 Total electricity bill (without VAT) % 100.0% Government induced elements % 35.8% - Electricity tax % 10.7% - Concession fee % 3.2% - Additional REN costs % 21.5% - CHP and other levies % 0.4% Government regulated elements % 29.3% - Transmission fees % 4.0% - Tistribution fees % 25.3% Market elements % 34.9% - Market value of renewables % 7.4% - Generation, distribution and sales % 27.5%

16 16 German Electricity Bill for Final Users [Data source: Destatis 2012] Total expenditures of industrial, commercial and residential customers [without VAT; Billion Euros]

17 17 Volkswirtschaftliche Auswirkungen der Energiewende

18 18 Business Cycle Impulse [Source: BMU 2013] 40 REN investments REN OPEX REN levy (net of REN market value)

19 19 REN Expenditures = Macroeconomic Stimulus REN energy net expenditures account for 1.6 % of German GDP (5 year average, without multiplicator) With multiplicator effect: GDP growth of two years Estimated net employment effect of jobs (2010) Growth not achieved through government deficit spending, without additional government liabilities Voluntary expenditures that are mandatory covered by the electricity consumers in the following years (REN levy and other levies)

20 20 Unsustainable Macroeconomic Stimulus REN levy (and other electricity charges) will further grow from today's level (5,7 ct/mwh) Energy Investments will likely decline due to REN technology cost reductions Political cuts in REN support (avoid unpopular power price escalations) Capital shortage due to profit decline in the electric industry and in equipment manufacturing (both REN and conventional) Energiewende without market driven profits?

21 21 Marktintegration der intermittierenden Elektrizität

22 22 Assumed Renewable Electricity until 2050 Renewable share of power generation % 17.8% 35.0% 50.0% 80.0% Secured load - Biogas 21.0% 19.0% 18.0% 22.0% 13.8% 100% - Onshore wind 35.0% 34.0% 33.0% 30.0% 18.8% 3% - Offshore wind 1.0% 4.0% 8.0% 14.0% 46.0% 9% - Photovoltaik 15.0% 20.0% 22.0% 19.0% 11.9% 0% - Other renewables 28.0% 22.0% 19.0% 15.0% 9.4% 70% Renewable share without biogas 9.5% 14.2% 28.7% 39.0% 68.8% Electric load secured by renewables 2.0% 2.4% 4.3% 4.9% 6.8%

23 23 Remaining Non-renewable Power Plants [incl. plants under construction 2013] Generation capacity [GW] Years in operation Nuclear [GW] Lignite [GW] Hard coal [GW] Gas [GW] Others [GW] Total [GW] Total adjusted 15%

24 24 Power Supply Scenario for 2030 with 50 Percent REN Electricity 100 Electric load [GW] Ordered load duration Conventional power plants Baseload power Ordered residual load without biogas / bio-methane Expected annual operation of additional plants

25 25 Backup Power Plant Operation in 2030 Residual load [GW] No operation Consecutive Operation Plant position in the merit order Hour -20

26 26 Consecutive Operation in 2030 [at 25 GW]

27 27 Consecutive Standstill in 2030 [at 45 GW]

28 28 Merci beaucoup Tel: +49 (030) Fax: +49 (030)

29 29 Research Profile of Energy Systems CCS Hydrogen and fuel cells Bio fuels Wind and PV CO 2 allowances Innovations Regulation power (Stochastic) Systems Analysis, Econometrics Energy laws Power-to-gas Industrial Economics Evolutionary Economics Public Choice Prices Social welfare Investments Markets Competition Business strategies Energy security