Kosten und Strategien des Klimaschutzes

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1 Kosten und Strategien des Klimaschutzes Globaler Klimawandel und regionale Auswirkungen in Norddeutschland Hamburg, 12. März 2007 Dr. Ottmar Edenhofer

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4 Abschätzung von Vermeidungskosten Source: Edenhofer, Lessmann et al. 2006

5 Economists trying to guess the ultimate costs of limiting carbondioxide concentrations most estimates are at the low end below 1 %. The Economist September 9th 2006, p. 9 Sir Nicholas has tried to assess the future costs of climate change and has set them against the costs of cutting fossil-fuel usage enough to stabilise carbondioxide concentration in the atmosphere. His answer to the second part of his calculation is fairly uncontroversial. The Economist November 4th 2006, p. 14

6 Economic Damages in % of GDP Natural Scientists Kemfert-high Stern Review 25 in % GDP In % of GDP Environmental Scientists Nordhaus Kemfert-low Social Scientists Tol Temperature Temperature Increase Source: OECD (2003) and Kemfert (2004)

7 Economic Damages in % of GDP Natural Scientists Kemfert-high Stern Review 25 in % GDP In % of GDP Environmental Scientists Nordhaus Kemfert-low Social Scientists Tol Temperature Temperature Increase Source: OECD (2003) and Kemfert (2004)

8 Kosten-Nutzen Analyse Losses BAU: GWP % / 8.5% ( ) Losses CBA: GWP - 0.8% / 1.8% (2050) ; Cons % / 3.3%(2050)

9 Notwendige Emissionsreduktion Business as Usual Emission Reduction

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11 There is no silver bullet it s the portfolio, stupid! CO2 reduction refer to the difference of business as usual and 450ppm CO2 stabilization Source: Edenhofer, Lessmann and Bauer (2006)

12 Was ist ein Energiesystem?

13 EJ/a Elektrizitätsproduktion (business as usual-szenario) Kohle PC Nuklear LWR Erdgas NGCC Biomasse Kraft-Wärme-K. Solarenergie Windenergie Wasserkraft Geothermie

14 Hard Coal: Global Distribution of Reserves & Resources 2,078 Gt = scaling factor 1 Global Reserves: 728 Gt Source: BGR (2005), Reserves, Resources and Availability of Energy Resources 2005

15 Brown Coal: Global Distribution of Reserves & Resources 434 Gt = scaling factor 1 Global Reserves: 207 Gt Source: BGR (2005), Reserves, Resources and Availability of Energy Resources 2005

16 EJ/a Elektrizitätsproduktion (450 ppm-szenario) Kohle PC Kohle Kraft-Wärme-K. Nuklear LWR Erdgas NGCC mit CCS Erdgas NGCC Biomasse Kraft-Wärme-K. Solarenergie Windenergie Wasserkraft Geothermie

17 Uranium: Global Distribution of Reserves & Resources 1,398 kt U = scaling factor 1 Countries with remaining Potential (Resources+Reserves ) higher than 200 kt (in kt U). Source: BGR (2005), Reserves, Resources and Availability of Energy Resources 2005

18 EJ/a Elektrizitätsproduktion (450 ppm-szenario mit Nuklear-Ausstieg) Relative Zunahme der Klimaschutzkosten durch Nuklear-Ausstieg: 4,6 % Kohle PC Kohle Kraft-Wärme-K. Nuklear LWR Erdgas NGCC mit CCS Erdgas NGCC Biomasse Kraft-Wärme-K. Solarenergie Windenergie Wasserkraft Geothermie

19 Klimaschutzkosten bei Nuklear-Ausstieg (Klimaschutzkosten mit Nuklear-Ausstieg minus Klimaschutzkosten ohne Nuklear-Ausstieg ) Relative Kostenzunahme (%) Lernrate der Solarenergie Floor costs der Solarenergie ($/kw) Standardwerte für Solarenergie: Lernrate 0,2 Floor costs 1000 $/kw

20 EJ/a Potenzial für Biofuels (450 ppm scenario) Coal Fischer-Tropsch Coal Fischer-Tropsch with CCS Oil refinery Biomass Fischer-Tropsch

21 Quelle: PIK Biomasse: Potenzial vs. Nutzung

22 EU-Commission: An Energy Policy for Europe Climate Protection 2 C - 450ppm Security of Supply Competitiveness Diversify and stabilise Energy Imports - Energy Charter EU-Russia - Launch North-Africa-EU energy partnership - Establish EU strategic gas reserve Curb Emissions - 20% reduction EU emissions by % reduction industrialised nations and EU 2020, if negotiatable % reduction target for industrialised nations until % share renewables in EU primary energy by % improvement in energy efficiency % share biofuels large CCS plants in EU Reform and extend EU ETS - A European Strategic Energy Plan (SET-Plan) Liberalize EU Energy Markets - Ownership unbundling energy transmission - Stronger regulation energy markets - Expand trans-european energy grids

23 Standortvorteil bei den Erneuerbaren Energieträgern

24 Ein Europäisches Fördermodell für die Erneuerbaren Renewable Power Hydro Incentive Green Certificate Price Sell Buy Renewable Power Wind Electricity & Green Certificates Electricity Retailer Electricity Retailer Electricity Conventional Power Plant Renewable Power Biomass Green Certificate Quota % Regulatory Body Renewable Power Solar Solar Final Consumers

25 Entwicklung CO 2 -Preis im EU ETS Blaue Linie: Entwicklung Emissionspreis für EUA in Handelsperiode Rote Linie: Entwicklung Emissionspreis für EUA in Handelsperiode Quelle: Point Carbon

26 Ein Bretton Woods Emissionsmarkt CO 2 -Emissionen EU-ETS RGGI Globaler CO 2 - Markt Globale CO 2 -Zentralbank CO 2 - Preis (Globale) Technologieinitiative Effizienz erneuerbare Energie CCS California

27 Verkehrssektor in den Emissionshandel!