Economics and Environmental Impacts of Ligno-Bioethanol Fuel

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1 10th IAEE European Conference Energy, Policies and Technologies for Sustainable Economies Economics and Environmental Impacts of Ligno-Bioethanol Fuel Witold-Roger Poganietz, Liselotte Schebek Department of Technology-Induced Material Flow Institute for Technology Assessment and Systems Analysis (ITAS-ZTS) Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe, Germany Vienna, September, 7-10, W.R. Poganietz Ligno-Bioethanol

2 Introduction Biofuels: Panacea or ecological (and society s) threat? + Important contribution to reduce environmental impact of mobility (CO 2, resources) - Competition for biomass (environmental stress, tortilla clashes ) Smarter biofuels e.g. lignocellulosic bioethanol 2 W.R. Poganietz Ligno-Bioethanol

3 Objective Comparison of food-based bioethanol with ligno-bioethanol exemplarily for Germany Corn stover (Source: Market penetration Environmental impacts (Carbon dioxide) Switchgrass (Source: 3 W.R. Poganietz Ligno-Bioethanol

4 Processing of bioethanol Ligno-bioethanol e.g. Straw Miscanthus Jerusalem artichoke Biomass handling Enzyme production Ethanol Source: Food-based bioethanol e.g. Biomass pretreatment Cellulose hydrolysis Glucose fermentation Ethanol recovery Corn Sugar cane Thermo-chem. gasification Chemical catalysis Lignin utilization Wheat 4 W.R. Poganietz Ligno-Bioethanol

5 Model Markets/Processes (stylized) Agriculture Food processing Demand food Land Bio-energy processes Biodiesel Forestry 4 Bioethanol 13 BtL 5 Biogas 9 Fos. resources Non-Bio-energy processes Demand Wood processing wood products Agriculture 35 Food 6 Demand Paper processing paper products Wood & paper 10 Fossil-based 9 Refinery Power plant Demand fuels Demand power & heat Technico-economic model Final demand-driven Geographical system boundary: by German customer induced demand Base year: 2005 Final year: W.R. Poganietz Ligno-Bioethanol

6 Scenario ~ Business as usual Costs Labour, overhead, non-energy equipment: % p.a. Crude oil price: exogenous: 60 $/bbl, 80 $/bbl, 100 $/bbl, 120 $/bbl (in 2020); Exchange rate: 1.2 $/ Prices of fossil-based resources (gas, coal): follow crude oil price All other costs: endogenous Final demand: change between 2005 and 2020 Food % to % Paper & wood products % Fuels Gasoline % Diesel % Gas % Power & heat % Sources: Uihlein (2006), MWV (2006), EWI/Prognos (2005), and own assumptions and calculations 6 W.R. Poganietz Ligno-Bioethanol

7 Scenario ~ Business as usual Energy policy: Implementation of currently known plans and bills But: Taxation of the heat value Agricultural policy: Implementation of the European CAP reform Foreign trade policy: no change Regulations of fuels in the model Quota system (Blending of fossil fuels): Biogenic share at total sale of gasoline and diesel: 8.0 % (heat value) at sale of gasoline: 3.6 % (heat value) at sale of diesel: 4.4 % (heat value) Taxation (no tax breaks): Gasoline: ct/l Bioethanol: ct/l Fossil diesel: ct/l Biodiesel: ct/l BtL: ct/l 7 W.R. Poganietz Ligno-Bioethanol

8 Market for bioethanol 80.0% 5.0% [Market share at bioethanol market] 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% [Market share at gasoline market] 0.0% 60 $/bbl 80 $/bbl 100 $/bbl 120 $/bbl 0.0% Food-based BioEtOH (left-hand scale) Ligno-BioEtOH (left-hand scale) BioEtOH (right-hand scale) Increasing crude oil price promotes bioethanol Ligno-bioethanol profits from a rising crude oil price disproportionately high 8 W.R. Poganietz Ligno-Bioethanol

9 Environmental impacts System boundary? Source: Source: blogs.princeton.edu Source: Land clearing Cultivation Processing Use Typical system boundary System boundary with land use change System boundary of the presentation Relevance of land use change (LUC): LUC induced CO 2 emissions are about 17 to 420 higher than annual emission reductions by biofuel use (Fargione et al. 2008) 9 W.R. Poganietz Ligno-Bioethanol

10 Carbon stock change due to LUC Carbon stock change in Germany, for selected land use categories, w/o liming, average NO NO [Mg C/ha] Sugar cane induced carbon stock change in Brazil, for selected land use categories Cropland remaining cropland Grassland converted to cropland Mineral soils Organic soils [Mg C/ha] -3-4 Grassland -5 remaining grassland -6 Source: own calculation based on NIR Germany Grassy cerrado Brazil to cropland Tropical moist rain forest to cropland Grassland to cropland Sources: Fargione et al. 2008, Fritsche 2008, Ravindranath et al W.R. Poganietz Ligno-Bioethanol

11 Carbon dioxide emission factors [g CO2 per g BioEtOH] Wheat Straw Sugar cane Switchgrass Jerusalem artichoke Miscanthus Poplar W/o land use change Land use change 11 W.R. Poganietz Ligno-Bioethanol

12 CO 2 emissions (w LUC w/o use phase) 7, , , ,000 6 [kt] 3, ,000 1, $/bbl 80$/bbl 100$/bbl 120$/bbl 60$/bbl 80$/bbl 100$/bbl 120$/bbl 60$/bbl 80$/bbl 100$/bbl [g/g] 120$/bbl Food-based BioEtOH Ligno-BioEtOH BioEtOH CO2 (left scale) specific CO2 (right scale) A high crude oil price depresses the carbon dioxide emissions of bioethanol At a high crude oil price food-based bioethanol seems to be advantageous 12 W.R. Poganietz Ligno-Bioethanol

13 Conclusions Markets Increasing crude oil price promotes bioethanol Ligno-bioethanol profits from a rising crude oil price disproportionately high But, pre-condition: saleable production processes precise knowledge of these saleable production processes 13 W.R. Poganietz Ligno-Bioethanol

14 Conclusions Environment (Carbon dioxide) A high crude oil price depresses the carbon dioxide emissions of bioethanol At a high crude oil price food-based (i.e. sugar cane based) bioethanol seems to be advantageous But, the environmental impact depends on the market success of a process route origin of the feedstock knowledge of carbon disposal due to land use change has to be improved 14 W.R. Poganietz Ligno-Bioethanol

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