Biodiesel: A new Oildorado?

Transkript

1 Biodiesel: A new Oildorado?, Environment and Resources,, RWI Essen 1

2 Biodiesel: A new Oildorado? 1. Introduction 2. Land Scarcity and Economic Impacts 3. Environmental Aspects 4. Alternative Options 5. Conclusion 2

3 1. Introduction EU-Targets for the shares of Biofuels in total consumption of fuels in the transport sector (EU Directive 2003/30/EC): 2005: 2% 2010: 5.75% Justification: Environmental impacts (Mitigation of greenhouse gases) Improvement of energy supply security Employment effects in the agricultural sector Promotion of Biofuels by mineral oil tax exemptions 3

4 1. Introduction Biodiesel and Bioethanol are currently the most important options to reach EU-targets Increase of EU-Biodiesel Production: in Mio t Germany France Italy EU Production in Germany 2005: 1.8 Mio t. 4

5 2. Land Scarcity and Economic Impacts Acreage Requirements for Biodiesel Target Compliances in EU25: EU-Targets 2 % 5.75 % Estimated diesel consumption Mio t Mio t Biodiesel target production 3.7 Mio t 11.7 Mio t Acreage requirement 3.0 Mio ha 9.0 Mio ha Sources: JRC 2004 and own calculations Lower bound of acreage requirement for Bioethanol in 2010: 2.2 Mio ha 11.2 Mio ha = 13.6 % of total arable land in EU25 will be required for Biofuel production in

6 2. Land Scarcity and Economic Impacts Distorted crop markets: Mandatory set-aside land (10%) does not provide enough acreage Biodiesel is crowding out crops for other purposes Tax losses in EU25 due to tax exemptions for Biodiesel : 2004: 737 Mio If Biodiesel target of 5.75% is achieved in 2005: about 5 Bn. Comparable losses for Bioethanol can be expected. 6

7 3. Environmental Aspects Net Greenhouse Gas Balance: GHG saving estimates lie between 41 % and 78 %. Reasons: Combustion of Biodiesel is CO2-neutral Higher heating value of fossil diesel compared with Biodiesel Processing rapeseed to Biodiesel requires more energy than the refinement of crude oil (agricultural machinery, oil extraction, esterification etc.) 7

8 3. Environmental Aspects Further Environmental Impacts: Nitrous oxides (N2O) originating from fertilizers contribute to ozone depletion Acidification and eutrophication due to fertilizers Toxic pollution of surface water due to pesticides Particle emissions are reduced compared with fossil diesel Overall environmental balance is not unequivocally positive 8

9 4. Alternative Options Greenhouse Gas Abatement Costs of Biodiesel /t Benchmark: 30 /t DEFRA 2003 IEA 2004 Benchmark: medium-term predicted price for Emission Trading certificates 9

10 4. Alternative Options Greenhouse Gas Abatement Costs of Biodiesel versus Wind Power and Efficiency Enhancement of Conventional Power Plants. /t Biodiesel Lignite Natural Gas Wind Power Sources: DEFRA 2003, Markewitz and Vögele 2004, DENA

11 4. Alternative Options Greenhouse Gas Abatement Costs of alternative Biofuels /t Biodiesel Bioethanol (EU) Bioethanol (Brazil) Sources: DEFRA 2003, Schmitz 2005, IEA

12 4. Alternative Options Abatement Costs of Biodiesel versus alternative Biomass Options for Power Generation. /t Biodiesel Reed Poplar Wood Sources: DEFRA 2003, Hartmann and Kaltschmitt

13 5. Conclusion Tax losses due to tax exemptions for biodiesel in the EU25 were as high as 736 Mio in 2004 and may easily increase up to 5 Bn by Overall environmental balance of the substitution of biodiesel for fossil diesel appears to be unclear. Biodiesel is not an efficient Greenhouse Gas mitigation option. Limited potentials due to land scarcity. Alternative: Research & Development of advanced biofuels (BtL, Fischer-Tropsch) 13

14 References DEFRA (2003), Liquid Biofuels Industry Support, Cost of Carbon Savings and Agricultural Implications. Prepared for the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA), DEFRA s Central Science Laboratory, ADAS, Ecofys, London. dena (2005) Energiewirtschaftliche Planung für die Netzintegration von Windenergie in Deutschland an Land und Offshore bis zum Jahr (Strategy for the Integration of On- and Offshore Wind Energy into the German Electricity Supply System by 2020.) German Energy Agency (dena), Berlin. JRC (2004), Biofuel Potential in the EU; Joint Research Centre, Institute for Prospective Technological Studies. Hartmann, H. and M. Kaltschmitt (2002) Biomasse als Erneuerbarer Energieträger (Biomass as a Renewable Energy Carrier). Landwirtschaftsverlag, Münster. 14

15 IEA (2004), Automotive Fuels for Transport An International Perspective. International Energy Agency. IFEU (2001), Pros and Cons of RME Compared to Conventional Diesel Fuel. Institute for Energy and Environmental Research. Heidelberg Markewitz, P. and S. Vögele (2004) Technikspezifische CO2 Vermeidungskosten. Eine geeignete Bewertungsgröße für Treibhausgasminderungs-Maßnahmen (Technology-Specific CO2- Abatement Costs An Appropriate Evaluation Parameter for Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Strategies). Energiewirtschaftliche Tagesfragen 54 (9), Schmitz, N. (2005) Innovationen bei der Bioethanolerzeugung, Schriftenreihe Nachwachsende Rohstoffe (Innovations in the Generation of Bioethanol, Series Renewable Resources ), Volume 26, Landwirtschaftsverlag, Münster. 15