Ausblick 2030: Ökonomie & Energie

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1 Ausblick 2030: Ökonomie & Energie Kurt Kratena Ina Meyer Mark Sommer Hintergrundgespräch

2 Ökonomie & Energie: BIP-Wachstum beeinflußt Energieverbrauch und Veränderungen im Energiesystem beeinflußen das BIP (Energiekosten, Technologie, rebound - Effekt): WM Szenario ( baseline ) und WM Sens Potential der Erhöhung der Energieeffizienz im Produktionsbereich: WAM und WAM plus Szenario Offene Punkte (zukünftige Szenarien): Implementierung der Effizienzmaßnahmen, Wettbewerbsfähigkeit/ carbon leakage Development of real Gross Domestic Product Source: Statistik Austria, WIFO Calculations

3 Ökonomische Ergebnisse WM: BIP-Wachstum ,0% 4,0% Output(real) : ~1.8% BIP (real) : ~1.5% 3,0% 2,0% 1,0% 0,0% -1,0% WEM hist. -2,0% -3,0% -4,0% -5,0% Development of real Gross Domestic Product Source: Statistik Austria, WIFO Calculations

4 Sensitivitätsanalyse WM Szenario

5 Sensitivitätsanalyse : WM Sens 1 & 2 ØBIP p.a WM WM Sens1 WM Sens2 Output (real) ~1.8% ~2.9% ~1.1% BIP (real) ~1.5% ~2.5% ~0.8% Energienachfrage ~0.8% ~1.5% ~0.6% 5,0% 4,0% 3,0% 2,0% 1,0% 0,0% ,0% WEM WEM Sens1 WEM Sens2 hist. -2,0% -3,0% -4,0% -5,0% Development of real Gross Domestic Product Source: Statistik Austria, WIFO Calculations

6 Energienachfrage WM: Energie und Output nach Sektoren ( ) TOTAL Agriculture Commercial and Public Services Air Transport Internal Navigation Landbased transport Construction Textiles and Leather Non Specified Industry Wood and Wood Products Food Tobacco and Beverages Mining and Quarrying Final Energy demand Output Machinery Transport Equipment Non Metal Minerals Pulp Paper and Print Chemical and Petrochemical Iron and Steel & Non-Ferrous Metals -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% % p.a. Average development of Output and Final Energy Demand per Sector in Source: WIFO Calculations

7 WAM & WAMplus Szenario Parameter WEM WAM WAM plus Ø GDP growthp.a (endogenous) Price CO 2 -Cert. 1,5% ~1.5 % 1.49 % 20 /t in /t in 2030 =WEM 20 /t in /t in 2030 (ETS & Non-ETS) Technical Progress coefficients (in EIS* sectors) Estimated Econometrically increased =WAM other Parameters =WEM =WEM WAM plus specific implementations Disaggregated modeling of energy intensive industries Fuel Tax increase * Energy-intensive sectors (EIS)

8 Ergebnisse WAM und WAMplus Average Increase in Energy Efficiency (TJ/ real Output) WEM WAM WAMplus Iron and Steel & Non Ferrous Metals 0.9% 0.9% 1.2% Chemical and Petrochemical 1.9% 2.0% 2.6% Non Metallic Minerals -0.5% 0.1% 0.6% Transport Equipment 0.1% 2.7% 3.0% Machinery 2.4% 2.8% 2.9% Mining and Quarrying 3.2% 3.2% 3.3% Food Tobacco and Beverages 3.2% 3.9% 3.9% Pulp Paper and Print 1.0% 1.8% 2.3% Wood and Wood Products 2.6% 3.1% 3.1% Construction -0.4% 0.5% 1.2% Textiles and Leather 6.1% 6.1% 6.1% Non Specified Industry -1.4% 0.5% 0.6%

9 Disaggregierung, Industrie: Methodik 17 economic Supra-sectors: Iron and Steel & Non-Ferrous Metals Chemical and Petrochemical Non Metal Minerals Transport Equipment Machinery Mining and Quarring Food Tobacco and Beverages Pulp Paper and Print Wood and Wood Products Construction Textiles and Leather Non Specified Industry Land based Transport Internal Navigation Air Transport Commercial and Public Services Agriculture Energy-intensive Sub-Sector Output Energy demand Non-energy-intensive Sub-Sector Output Energy demand Metals 45 % 76 % 55 % 24 % Chem. 51 % 75 % 49 % 25 % Non- Metal 18 % 51 % 82 % 49 % Paper 40 % 95 % 60 % 5 % Shares in Output and Energy demand Source: UBA, WIFO Vier energieintensive Industrien ~ 200PJ (in 2010) (60% der gesamten Energienachfrage, Industrie) Energienachfrage des Sub-Sektors: Energienachfrage (%) Energiekosten-Anteil Output (%) Parameter des Gesamtsektors

10 Ergebnis WAMplus : Endenergienachfrage TOTAL Agriculture Commercial and Public Services Air Transport Internal Navigation Landbased transport Jährliche Veränderung : Output +1.8 % Energienachfrage % ==== Energie-Effizienz p.a. ~1.4 % Construction Textiles and Leather Non Specified Industry Wood and Wood Products Food Tobacco and Beverages Mining and Quarrying Final Energy demand Output Machinery Transport Equipment Non-Metal Minerals Pulp Paper and Print Chemical and Petrochemical Iron and Steel & Non-Ferrous Metals -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% % p.a. Yearly avg. growth rates in Output and Final Energy Demand Source: WIFO Calculations

11 Energieintensität Szenarien & Historische Entwicklung TJ / GDP (in Mrd ) WEM ** WAM ** WAMplus ** * * % +0,3% +0.9% +0,55% +1.05% +1.3% *) Source: Statistik Austria ( Total Energy Balance; Gross Domestic Product (Volume) **) Source: WIFO Calculations