% Dr. Harry Lehmann. Federal Environment Agency (UBA) Germany WCRE

Transkript

1 E N E R G Y R I C H J A P A N エナジー リッチ ジャパン % Dr. Harry Lehmann Federal Environment Agency (UBA) Germany WCRE

2 Energy Supply by Renewables 1% - 40% - 100% Limits to growth Source: Harry Lehmann, 1994

3 948 Verkehr Haushalt und GHD Industrie % -80% -95% Energiewirtschaft

4 Energy System based on renewables emethan Source: Harry Harry Lehmann, 1996 (2009)

5 Archetypes of 100% REN Supply Centralized / big Decentralized / small Harry Lehmann (2009)

6 Archetypes of 100% REN Supply International / far away Centralized / big Decentralized / small National / Local / nearby Harry Lehmann (2009)

7 Decentralized / small Archetypes of 100% REN Supply International / far away Centralized / big National / Local / nearby Harry Lehmann (2009)

8 Decentralized / small Archetypes of 100% REN Supply International / far away?????? Centralized / big??? National / Local / nearby Harry Lehmann (2009)

9 Decentralized / small Archetypes of 100% REN Supply International / far away Local Autarky Centralized / big National / Local / nearby Harry Lehmann (2009)

10 Archetypes of 100% REN Supply Plusenergybuildings Rolf Disch

11 IBA Hamburg Zukunftskonzept Erneuerbares Wilhelmsburg Project area of the IBA Hamburg INTERNATIONALE BAUAUSSTELLUNG IBA HAMBURG GMBH

12 IBA Hamburg Zukunftskonzept Erneuerbares Wilhelmsburg INTERNATIONALE BAUAUSSTELLUNG IBA HAMBURG GMBH

13 IBA Hamburg Zukunftskonzept Erneuerbares Wilhelmsburg INTERNATIONALE BAUAUSSTELLUNG IBA HAMBURG GMBH

14 IBA Hamburg Zukunftskonzept Erneuerbares Wilhelmsburg 100% 85% INTERNATIONALE BAUAUSSTELLUNG IBA HAMBURG GMBH

15 Decentralized / small Archetypes of 100% REN Supply International / far away Local Autarky Centralized / big National / Local / nearby Harry Lehmann (2009)

16 Decentralized / small Archetypes of 100% REN Supply International / far away Local Autarky Intern. Coop Centralized / big National / Local / nearby Harry Lehmann (2009)

17 ISuSI Trans Med Renewable Energy Collaboration - TREC Solar Wind Hydro Geothermal Biomass EURO-MED possible further interconnections Gas pipelines used for Hydrogen Source: TREC Collaboration und Harry Lehmann, 2004

18 Decentralized / small Archetypes of 100% REN Supply International / far away Local Autarky Intern. Coop Centralized / big National / Local / nearby Harry Lehmann (2009)

19 Decentralized / small Archetypes of 100% REN Supply International / far away Local Autarky Regions Coop Intern. Coop Centralized / big National / Local / nearby Harry Lehmann (2009)

20 Juni 2010

21 TWh TWh Energy Demand in diff. sectors Germany 2008 and % 22% 38% 5% % 33% 52% 8%

22 Scenario Regionen Verbund D 2050 Installed Capacity GW Photovoltaic Wind energy onshore Wind energy offshore Hydropower Geothermal energy Waste biomass (biogas) 60

23 Leistung (GW) Feed-in of the renewable energies ( ) Mittlere, monatliche EE-Einspeisung im Vergleich ( ) Geothermie Laufwasser Onshore-Wind Offshore-Wind Photovoltaik Jan Feb März April Mai Juni Juli Aug Sept Okt Nov Dez Monat Average, monthly feed-in of renewable electricity from generation capacities in 2050 based on the meteorological years FhG IWES

24 Storage is needed pumped-storage plant Chemical storage H2 or emethan Electrical Storage

25 energy storage by linking the power grid with natural gas grid 4 H 2 + CO 2 CH 4 + H 2 O [Specht et al, 2010, Sterner, 2009]

26 Leistung (GW) Feed-in of renewable energy and load per month (winter) EE-Einspeisung und Last (Meteo-Jahr 2007, Januar) 160 Geothermie Laufwasser Onshore-Wind Offshore-Wind PV Basislast Gesamtlast mit Lastmanagement FhG IWES Tag Feed-in [GW] of all RE and the load curve Example Winter day (December) for the feed-in of renewable energies in 2050, based on the meteorological year 2007

27 Leistung (GW) Feed-in of renewable energies and load per month (summer) EE-Einspeisung und Last (Meteo-Jahr 2007, August) 160 Geothermie Laufwasser Onshore-Wind Offshore-Wind PV Basislast Gesamtlast mit Lastmanagement FhG IWES Tag Feed-in [GW] of all RE and load Example Summer day (August) for the feed-in of renewable energies in 2050, based on the meteorological year 2007

28 Japan エナジー リッチ ジャパン Shikoku Chubu Source: Harry Lehmann et.al. (2002)

29 Decentralized / small Archetypes of 100% REN Supply International / far away Local Autarky Region Coop Intern. Coop Centralized / big National / Local / nearby Harry Lehmann (2009)

30 Decentralized / small Archetypes of 100% REN Supply International / far away D-I Local Autarky Region Coop Intern. Coop Centralized / big N-C National / Local / nearby Harry Lehmann (2009)

31 Decentralized / small Archetypes of 100% REN Supply International / far away D-I Local Autarky Region Coop Intern. Coop Centralized / big N-C National / Local / nearby Harry Lehmann (2009)

32 Steps... for 100% Limits to growth Source: Harry Lehmann, 1994

33 100% REN Steps... Binding emission targets and/or targets for renewable energy supply

34 100% REN Steps... Binding emission targets and/or targets for renewable energy supply Adjusting legal and economic framework conditions (e.g. FIT, MiC)

35 100% REN Steps... Binding emission targets and/or targets for renewable energy supply Adjusting legal and economic framework conditions (e.g. FIT, MiC) Efficient and intelligent use of energy

36 100% REN Steps... Binding emission targets and/or targets for renewable energy supply Adjusting legal and economic framework conditions (e.g. FIT, MiC) Efficient and intelligent use of energy Alignment of spatial planning (Enough place for Wind)

37 100% REN Steps... Binding emission targets and/or targets for renewable energy supply Adjusting legal and economic framework conditions (e.g. FIT, MiC) Efficient and intelligent use of energy Alignment of spatial planning (Enough place for Wind) Considering other environmental constrains (e.g. Biodiv)

38 100% REN Steps... Binding emission targets and/or targets for renewable energy supply Adjusting legal and economic framework conditions (e.g. FIT, MiC) Efficient and intelligent use of energy Alignment of spatial planning (Enough place for Wind) Considering other environmental constrains (e.g. Biodiv) Building infrastructure (adapted grid and storage systems)

39 100% REN Steps... Binding emission targets and/or targets for renewable energy supply Adjusting legal and economic framework conditions (e.g. FIT, MiC) Efficient and intelligent use of energy Alignment of spatial planning (Enough place for Wind) Considering other environmental constrains (e.g. Biodiv) Building infrastructure (adapted grid and storage systems) Considering other constrains Landarea and Ressources

40 100% REN Steps... Binding emission targets and/or targets for renewable energy supply Adjusting legal and economic framework conditions (e.g. FIT, MiC) Efficient and intelligent use of energy Alignment of spatial planning (Enough place for Wind) Considering other environmental constrains (e.g. Biodiv) Building infrastructure (adapted grid and storage systems) Considering other constrains Landarea and Ressources Research & Development & Demonstration

41 100% REN Steps... Binding emission targets and/or targets for renewable energy supply Adjusting legal and economic framework conditions (e.g. FIT, MiC) Efficient and intelligent use of energy Alignment of spatial planning (Enough place for Wind) Considering other environmental constrains (e.g. Biodiv) Building infrastructure (adapted grid and storage systems) Considering other constrains Landarea and Ressources Research & Development & Demonstration Information & Training and Capacity Building

42 100% REN Steps... Binding emission targets and/or targets for renewable energy supply Adjusting legal and economic framework conditions (e.g. FIT, MiC) Efficient and intelligent use of energy Alignment of spatial planning (Enough place for Wind) Considering other environmental constrains (e.g. Biodiv) Building infrastructure (adapted grid and storage systems) Considering other constrains Landarea and Ressources Research & Development & Demonstration Information & Training and Capacity Building Obtaining social support for the energy transition

43 From 1% to 40% to 100% Limits to growth Source: Harry Lehmann, 1994

44 Verkehrssektor Bruttoendenergieverbrauch Anteile in [%] Anteile erneuerbarer Energien an der Energiebereitstellung in Deutschland mind. 35,0 1) ,8 20,0 Anteile EE am gesamten Stromverbrauch 4,3 10,4 Anteile EE an der gesamten Wärmebereitstellung 14,0 1) 0, Ziele: ,6 10,0 1,2) Anteile EE am gesamten Kraftstoffverbrauch (2) 4,5 12,2 18,0 1) 3,2 10,9 Anteile EE am gesamten Anteile EE am gesamten Endenergieverbrauch Primärenergieverbrauch (3) (Strom, Wärme, Kraftstoffe) 1) Quellen: Ziele der Bundesregierung; Erneuerbare-Energien-Gesetz (EEG); Erneuerbare-Energien-Wärmegesetz (EEWärmeG), EU-Richtlinie 2009/28/EG; 2) Der gesamte Verbrauch an Motorkraftstoff, ohne Flugbenzin; 3) Berechnet nach Wirkungsgradmethode - Quelle: Arbeitsgemeinschaft Energiebilanzen e.v. (AGEB); EE: Erneuerbare Energien; Quelle: BMU-KI III 1 nach Arbeitsgruppe Erneuerbare Energien-Statistik (AGEE-Stat); Hintergrundbild: BMU / Brigitte Hiss; Stand: März 2012; Angaben vorläufig

45 [GWh] Beitrag der erneuerbaren Energien zur Strombereitstellung in Deutschland Wasserkraft Biomasse * Windenergie Photovoltaik EEG: Januar EEG: April 2000 EEG: August Novelle BauGB: November StromEinspG: Januar März * Feste und flüssige Biomasse, Biogas, Deponie- und Klärgas, biogener Anteil des Abfalls; 1 GWh = 1 Mio. kwh; Aufgrund geringer Strommengen ist die Tiefengeothermie nicht dargestellt; StromEinspG: Stromeinspeisungsgesetz; BauGB: Baugesetzbuch; EEG: Erneuerbare-Energien-Gesetz; Quelle: BMU-KI III 1 nach Arbeitsgruppe Erneuerbare Energien-Statistik (AGEE-Stat); Hintergrundbild: BMU / Christoph Edelhoff; Stand: März 2012; Angaben vorläufig

46 RES-A apportionment [ 2010 per month] Projection of costs of an average HH (electricity consumption kwh/a) due to the RES-A-apportionment until 2030 Source: Nitsch, 2010 RES-A Marketing Costs Wind Offshore Geothermal Hydropower Biomass Wind Onshore Photovoltaic

47 Jobs in the renewable energy sources sector in Germany Wind energy 63,900 85,700 96, ,100 Biomass 56, , , ,500 Solar energy 25,100 49,200 80, ,900 Hydropower 7,600 7,800 8,100 9,500 Increase: approx. 129 % Geothermal energy Publicly funded research / administration 13,300 14,500 10,300 1,800 7,500 6,500 4,500 3, ,500 jobs 277,300 jobs 339,500 jobs 367,400 jobs ,000 40,000 60,000 80, , , ,000 Figures for 2009 and 2010 are provisional estimate; deviations in totals are due to rounding; Source: O Sullivan/Edler/van Mark/Nieder/Lehr: "Bruttobeschäftigung durch erneuerbare Energien im Jahr eine erste Abschätzung", as at: March 2011; interim report of research project Kurzund langfristige Auswirkungen des Ausbaus erneuerbarer Energien auf den deutschen Arbeitsmarkt ; image: BMU / Christoph Busse / transit

48 Active Regions 50% of Germany

49 Phase out of the individual nuclear power plants total Power in net output cut-off in MW 8.422* *2,1 GW nuclear power out of service since 2008

50 100% is possible Lets do it... Limits to growth uba.de Source: Harry Lehmann, 1994

51 Thank you

52 Nuclear Phase out in Germany? Limits to growth Source: Harry Lehmann, 1994

53 Capacity Power Plants 20,5 GW Nuclear (8,4 GW switched off 2011) New capacity until 2020: 11 GW Gas and Coal?? Cogeneration?? Renewables Phase Out old Coal: < 6 GW (or retrofit?)

54 power in net output Power supply in Germany - January 2011 Secured capacity = installed capacity -..non-replaceable capacity..power plant outage..reserve capacity required for ancillary services renewable energy hydroelectricity nuclear power gas-fired power hard coal lignite other * reserve annual peak load (maximum of past 10 years) installed capacity secured capacity *without 2,1 GW nuclear power out of service since 2008 annual peak load Reference: BMWi, 2011

55 Decommissioning of nuclear power plants

56 power in net output MW Power supply in Germany January 2011 to ,3* secured capacity (Jan 2011) fossil power plants under construction & new biomass power plants possible decommissioning of fossil power by 2022 decommissioning of all nuclear power plants essential: additional 8 GW by 2022 to guarantee security of supply preferably gas-fired power plants 7 GW gas-fired power plants in planning additional potential of 3 GW through demand side management annual peak load & nessesary reserve essential needs of power plants *2,1 GW nuclear power out of service since 2008

57 power in net output MW Potential capacity of new 30,000 power plants 25,000 20,000 15,000 preferably gas-fired power plants 6,9 GW gas-fired power plants in planning essential: only 1 additional GW 10,000 5, ,6 GW gas and 10,8 GW coal-fired plants under construction (0,6 GW gas already running) 6,9 GW gas-fired plants in planning 5,1 GW coal power plants in planning The development is difficult to estimate. Delay in construction New fossil projects and decommissioning subject to market situation