Modul 4. Gregor Laumann. fona-forum 2012, Berlin 23 Oktober Verbesserte Instrumente zur Entscheidungsfindung unter Bedingungen des Klimawandels

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1 Modul Gregor Laumann fona-forum 2012, Berlin 23 Oktober 2012 Verbesserte Instrumente zur Entscheidungsfindung unter Bedingungen des Klimawandels

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3 Grundidee Besseres Verständnis der Kategorien und der Kommunikation von Risiken und Unsicherheiten (.1) Integration globaler Analyse und Bewertung des Klimawandels (.2) Skalenübergreifende Integration von Modellen und Szenarien (.3) Effektive Verknüpfung von Klimaszenarien mit konkreten Entscheidungsprozessen (.)

4 Überblick.1 Bottom-up Analyse klima-bezogener Entscheidungsbedarfe (key climate risks and uncertainties siehe Modul 2).2 Unterstütung der Integrationsbemühungen der globalen Modelle und Szenarien (Kooperation zwischen IAM, VIA, CM IPCC-Prozess).3 Nested scenarios auf unterschiedlichen Skalenebene (Verknüpfung von top-down mit bottom-up Analyse). Verknüpfung von Modellen und Szenarien mit Modellen und Tools zur Entscheidungsunterstützung (iteratives Ko-Design in science practice labs )

5 Umbrella Programme Economic, Governance and Policy Analysis Methods and tools national, FP7 and other programmes and communities; modelling/ Water KNOWLEDGE HUB Agriculture JPI Climate modules 1, 2 and 3; modelling/ Urban/ Health Infrastructure Biodive rsity Integrated regional climate impacts, adaptation and mitigation sciencepractice research

6 Umbrella Programme Economic, Social and Policy Analysis: - cost and effectiveness of adaptation/mitigation -estimates for impacts and damages -probabilistic assessment of risk and risk distribution -- policy analysis and integration - governance issues, conflicts, barriers - Framing issues Systems research: - model inter-comparison (ISI-MIP) - validation and quality check of models -comparative study metrics / analytical tools -GHG emissions verification - cross-scale integration of knowledge - cross-sector integration, interactions and feedbacks, non-linerarities, cross-cutting issues national, FP7 and other programmes and communities Water KNOWLEDGE HUB Agriculture JPI Climate modules 1, 2 and 3; modelling/ Urban/ Health Infrastructure Biodive rsity Integrated regional climate impacts, adaptation and mitigation sciencepractice research

7 Economic, Social and Policy Analysis: - cost and effectiveness of adaptation/mitigation -estimates for impacts and damages -probabilistic assessment of risk and risk distribution -- policy analysis and integration - governance issues, conflicts, barriers - Framing issues national, FP7 and other programmes and communities; modelling/ Water Umbrella Programme KNOWLEDGE HUB Systems research: - model inter-comparison (ISI-MIP) - validation and quality check of models -comparative study metrics / analytical tools -GHG emissions verification - cross-scale integration of knowledge - cross-sector integration, interactions and feedbacks, non-linerarities, cross-cutting issues Infrastructure Agriculture JPI Climate modules 1, 2 and 3; modelling/ Urban/ Health Biodive rsity Integrated regional climate impacts, adaptation and mitigation sciencepractice research

8 The Intersectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP) Wie unterscheidet sich eine 2 C von einer 3 C und C Welt? Wie gut können wir die Unterschiede benennen und erklären? Was sind die damit verbundenen Unsicherheiten?

9 Multiple climate models + Multiple global impact models per sector = Fast track contribution to AR5 RCP climate projections Global: CMIP5 Regional: CORDEX Socioeconomic input SSP population and GDP Agriculture (AgMIP collaboration) Water (WaterMIP collaboration) Biomes Health (coastal infrastructure) Synthesis of impacts at different levels of global warming Quantification of uncertainties Impact emulators Gibt es Defizite in unserem Prozessverständnis oder dessen Repräsentation in Klimafolgenmodellen? Gelten diese Defizite quer über unterschiedliche Klimafolgenmodelle?

10 Einladung von Teams 12/2011 2/2012 Input- Daten & Output- Vorlage July Ergebnis- Workshop 9/2012 Deadline IPCC WG2 Impact Conference in Potsdam 1/2013 5/2013 Kick-off Workshop Deadline für Ergebnisse Abgabedatum für Veröffentlichungen Danach: regelmäßige, konstistente, quantitative und Sektor-übergreifende Bewertung von Klimafolgen und Klimafolgenmodellen

11 Mode of funding: community driven collaborative anchorprogrammes, funded selectively or jointly by member states or EU. Umbrella Programme Mode of operations: inventories, reviews, assessments, intercomparison, analytic integration, gap analysis, etc. national, FP7 and other programmes and communities; modelling/ Mode of funding: Coordination unit co-funded by EU Water Economic, governance and Policy Analysis KNOWLEDGE HUB Methods and tools Mode of operations: coordination, publication, dissemination Infrastructure Agriculture JPI Climate modules 1, 2 and 3; modelling/ Mode of operations: Set of sector studies with common, comparative design, with hot-spot approach, inventory and assessment elements, as well as sciencepractice labs built into study design. Urban/ Health Biodive rsity Integrated regional climate impacts, adaptation and mitigation sciencepractice research Mode of funding: Set of stakeholder driven, competitive joint calls funded by member states