What the FinTech?! #2 FinTech & Venture Capital Startplatz Köln 8. Oktober 2015
What is FinTech? Jeder hat so seine eigene Definition Big Data, Cloud- Computing, Smartphones, Laptops, etc. FinTech Unternehmen E- Commerce Mobile- Payment Crowdlending Business Intelligence Übernahme von Marktanteile der Banken FinTech Banken FinTech: Moderne Technologie zur Bereitstellung finanzieller Dienstleistungen durch Unternehmen, die (ursprünglich) aus dem Nichtbankenbereich stammen Überwindung der Markteintrittshürde (Banklizenz) durch alternative Methoden 2
3 What is FinTech? German Universe/Global Universe German FinTech Startup Universe n=332 Global FinTech Universe n=1.232 Alt. Finance Lending 16% 1% 1% 2% 2% 3% 4% 3% 3% 3% 6% 8% 11% 37% Investment Payment Solutions Insurance Payment P2P Restau/Till Bitcoin/Crypto Other ERP Online-Ident Finance Aggregation Spenden 3% 3% 3% 2% 4% 4% 4% 5% 6% 7% 9% 10% 20% 20% Payments Personal Finance Equity Financing Retail Investment Small Business Tools Banking Infrastructure API/Infrastructure Real Estate Institutional Investment Source: paymentandbanking.com, crowdfunding.de, Maik Klotz, Signed.VC, Barkow Consulting Source: Venture Scanner, Barkow Consulting >300 FinTech-Unternehmen in Deutschland >1.200 FinTech-Unternehmen global erscheint sehr konservativ 3
4 What is Venture Capital? Erhebliche Differenzen in den Statistiken für Deutschland VC-Investitionen in Deutschland Deutsche Venture Capital-Investitionen in Mrd. p.a. Dt. VC-Lücke > 27Mrd. Dt. VC-Investitionslücke im Vgl. zu USA in Mrd. p.a. Min Max Ø 2,3 7,1 Ʃ 27,2 1,5 4,3 2,8 0,6 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source: BVK, Dow Jones VentureSource, EVCA, EY, Majunke Consulting, Pitchbook, Barkow Consulting 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Sou4ce: BVK, CB Insights, destatis, Dow Jones VentureSource, EVCA, EY, NVCA/PwC MoneyTree, Pitchbook, United Nations National Accounts Main Aggregates Database, US Census, Barkow Consulting Dt. VC-Investitionen 2014: Je nach Quelle zwischen EUR0,6Mrd. und EUR2,3Mrd. 4
5 FinTech Venture Capital Deutschland: Pick a Number FinTech Venture Capital in Germany 2014 FinTech Venture Capital Investitionen in Mio. p.a. 643 331 308 175 82 CB Insights Techfluence Dow Jones Venture Source PitchBook Ø Source: CB insights, Dow Jones VentureCource, Techfluence, Pitchbook, Barkow Consulting Auch im FinTech-Segment dramatische Unterschiede in den Zahlen => Geringe Markttransparenz 5
6 FinTech Venture Capital Europa & Global FinTech Venture Capital in Europe FinTech Venture Capital Investitionen in Mrd. p.a. FinTech Venture Capital Global FinTech Venture Capital Investitionen in US $ Mrd. p.a. 12,21 1,68 0,74 0,64 4,00 0,05 0,06 0,20 0,64 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 H12015 2012 2013 2014 Source: Pitchbook, Barkow Consulting Source: EY/CB Insights, Barkow Consulting Explosion von FinTech VC seit 2012 Wachstumstrend in 2015 (noch) intakt 6
7 FinTech Venture Capital Deutschland: Unsere Money Map Zahlen FinTech Venture Capital in Germany FinTech Venture Capital Investments in US$m 294 All FinTech Investments in 2015 FinTech Investments in US$m VC Debt M&A 161 294 803 39 56 453 2012 2013 2014 2015YTD Source: Barkow Consulting FinTech Money Map Source: Barkow Consulting FinTech Money Map FinTech VC auch in Deutschland mit starkem Anstieg In 2015 bislang EUR1,5Mrd. Investiert dominiert von M&A und Fremdkapital 7
8 FinTech Venture Capital Moore s Law & die 2. Hälfte des Schachbretts The Second Half of the Chessboard Market Share in %, CAGR 100% Growth Co Perception Hurdle 4 years 51% 2% t0 t1 t2 t3 t4 t5 t6 t7 t8 t9 t10 t11 Source: destatis, Dowjones Venture Source, United Nations National Accounts Main Aggregates Database, University of Camebridge/EY, US Census, Barkow Consulting Der Grund für den FinTech VC Boom: Technologischer Wandel beschleunigt sich; Banken beschleunigen ihren eigenen Wandel nicht entsprechend 8
9 Barkow Consulting FinTech Money Map Introducing our 5-Star-Database ca. 200 FinTech Cos > 600 Investments > 350 Investoren > 3 Mrd. Investments > 250 Finanzierungs -runden Unsere Money Map als ein Schritt zur Erhöhung der Markttransparenz Die wohl umfangreichste FinTech VC-Datenbank in Deutschland Vielleicht eine der grössten VC-Datenbanken in Deutschland generell 9
Holtzb V HTGF YouisNow G Startups DvH V. b-to-v Point Nine Rocket SAP No 10 No 10 No 12 No 13 No 13 No 15 No 15 No 17 No 17 No 19 No 19 No 19 No 22 No 22 No 22 No 22 10 Barkow Consulting FinTech Money Map Wer investiert? FinTech VC: Most Active Investors in Germany (in # of portfolio companies) Investors by number of FinTech investments 12 11 10 9 Source: Barkow Consulting FinTech Money Map Die üblichen Verdächtigen?! 10
Germany USA Switzerland UK Russia France Sweden Netherlands Italy Hong Kong Singapore Ukraine Spain Australia Denmark Poland Japan Ukraine Brasil EU 11 Barkow Consulting FinTech Money Map Regionaler Split Investors in German FinTech (# of Investors by Country of Origin) Number of Investors by Country of Investor Origin 274 25 13 12 8 5 4 5 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 Source: Barkow Consulting FinTech Money Map Deutschland dominiert USA auf Position Nr. 2 Und Russland auf Nr. 5 11
12 Barkow Consulting FinTech Money Map Sektoraler Split Investors in German FinTech Number of Investors by Investor Background Investors in German FinTech Number of Investors by Type of Investor 5% 5% 3% 1% 4% 76% Investor FinTech Media Banks IT Retail Insurance Telco Stock Exchange Internet Luxury Goods Payments Consulting 15% 5% 3% 2%2%2% 34% 32% VC Angel Strategic Investor Corporate VC Incubator Company Builder Accelerator Public VC Family Office Hedge Fund Crowd Capital Markets Private Equity Source: Barkow Consulting FinTech Money Map Source: Barkow Consulting FinTech Money Map Finanzinvestoren dominieren (insbesondere Business Angels) Medien investieren mehr als Banken Versicherungen (fast) NO SHOW 12
Israel UK USA Sweden Netherl. Ireland* Finland France Czech Rep. Germany Lux.* Greece* Spain Denmark Belgium 13 Deutschland hat noch FinTech-Potential Barkow Consulting FinTech Country Rating FinTech Country Rating (Ø of Alternative Finance/GDP & of FinTech VC/GDP) In % of GDP Source: destatis, Dowjones Venture Source, United Nations National Accounts Main Aggregates Database, University of Camebridge/EY, US Census, Barkow Consulting Verpasst Deutschland (mal wieder) den Anschluss? 13
14 Deutschland hat noch FinTech-Potential Die dt. VC-Lücke, wie groß war die noch? VC-Investitionen in Deutschland Deutsche Venture Capital-Investitionen in Mrd. p.a. Dt. VC-Lücke > 27Mrd. Dt. VC-Investitionslücke im Vgl. zu USA in Mrd. p.a. Min Max Ø 2,3 7,1 Ʃ 27,2 1,5 4,3 2,8 0,6 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source: BVK, Dow Jones VentureSource, EVCA, EY, Majunke Consulting, Pitchbook, Barkow Consulting 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Sou4ce: BVK, CB Insights, destatis, Dow Jones VentureSource, EVCA, EY, NVCA/PwC MoneyTree, Pitchbook, United Nations National Accounts Main Aggregates Database, US Census, Barkow Consulting Dt. VC-Investitionen 2014 - Große Unterschiede in der Datenbasis Dt. VC-Lücke > 27Mrd. seit 2009 Dt. VC Lücke auf Rekordniveau in 2014 14
15 Deutschland hat noch FinTech-Potential US VC Investitionen 7,5x so hoch VC-Investitionen in Deutschland Venture Capital Investitionen in %0 des BIP Min Max VC-Investitionen in den USA Venture Capital Investitionen in %0 des BIP Min Max 3,39%0 2,72%0 0,79%0 0,22%0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source: BVK, Dow Jones, VentureSource, EVCA, EY, Majunke Consulting, Pitchbook, destatis, Barkow Consulting 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source: CB Insights, Dow Jones VentureSource, NVCA/PwC MoneyTree, EY, Pitchbook, US Census, Barkow Consulting US VC Investitionen sind 7,5x so hoch wie in Deutschland 15
16 Deutschland hat noch FinTech-Potential FinTech VC: Deutschland vs London FinTech VC in Deutschland und London VC Investment Volumen in US$m 487 Germany London 554 294 161 2014 2015 YTD Source: Barkow Consulting FinTech Money Map, CB Insights/London & partners London allein zieht mehr FinTech VC an als ganz Deutschland Aber: Lücke in 2015 scheint kleiner zu werden 16
Barkow Consulting Strategic Innovation Tree Innovation Strategies Reinvent Yourself Found Tech Subsidiary Investment Alone Alone JV / Cooperation M&A VC Cooperation Traditional VC Corporate VC Fund Accelerator www.barkowconsulting.com Incubator Company Builder
Incumbents & Disruption I II III IV V VI VII Ignorance Underestimation Denial Surprise Frustration Copy Resignation What are you talking about? Never heard of it! This is just a short term fad! Come on, we are much too strong, they will never succeed Hm, they are not going away Oops, we are really losing market share! Sh, we have to do that too! Sh, we are not getting it done! Are we too late? VIII IX X XI XII XIII XIV Investment M&A Write Off Buy Real Survivors Buy Out Hope No Interest Open end Hm, if we can t beat them, we invest in them! Wrong investments, let s buy the winners instead Source: Barkow Consulting Once successful, now (with us) they struggle Now let s buy real survivors! Waited too long, survivors too expensive, now hope they buy us! Tech Cos not interested in bricks & mortars, legacy systems etc.
19 Deutschen Banken auch noch mit Potential Dt. Banken investieren kaum German Banks FinTech Investments Number of Companies Commerz 3 Sparkassen 2 2 1 main incubator Commerz Ventures DSGV DSV Gruppe Source: Barkow Consulting "FinTech Money Map" Commerzbank als absoluter Marktführer Aber auch die Sparkassen sind im Markt aktiv wenn auch mit anderem Investment-Ansatz 19
20 Deutschen Banken auch noch mit Potential Banken & FinTech Investments: D vs USA FinTech Investments: Germany vs US Number of Companies USA Germany 27 24 24 20 16 14 8 5 3 Amex Citi GS PayPal JP Morgan Visa MS Commerz Sparkassen Source: Barkow Consulting "FinTech Money Map" Deutsche Banken als Nebenakteure (blau, rechts aussen!) US Banken & Kreditkartenunternehmen extrem aktiv 20
PayPal DB CBK Lufax Zhong An Square LendingClub Wirecard Stripe Zillow Zenefits CreditKarma Powa Klarna Xero Aareal CommonBond One97 Prosper Affirm* PBB Biz2Credit Dataminr* Lakala* comdirect Adyen 21 Deutschen Banken auch noch mit Potential FinTech Unicorns vs German Banks German Listed Banks vs. Global FinTech Unicorns Valuation in US$ bn 49,0 45,1 Public Private German Bank 16,5 9,6 8,0 6,0 5,6 5,1 5,0 4,8 4,5 3,5 2,7 2,5 2,4 2,3 2,0 2,0 1,9 1,8 1,7 1,7 1,6 1,6 1,5 1,5 Source: Finovate, Bloomberg, Pitchbook, Barkow Consulting PayPal > Deutsche Bank 21
22 Deutschen Banken auch noch mit Potential Top 5 vs Top 5 Top5: FinTech vs listed German Banks In US$ bn 78 67 Fintech 5 Source: Finovate, Bloomberg, Barkow Consulting German Banks FinTech Top 5 schlägt deutsche Banken Top 5 zumindest aktuell 22
23 Auch FinTechs noch mit Potential? PayPal vs Next 8 PayPal vs Next 8 FinTech Unicorns In US$ bn 49 49 PayPal Next 8 Source: Finovate, Bloomberg, Barkow Consulting PayPal ist soviel Wert wie die nächstfolgenden 8 FinTech-Unternehmen zusammen 23
Delivery Hero* Rocket Internet Delivery Hero Zalando Hello Fresh 126 120 118 110 92 88 86 85 85 75 Home24 Auto1 Delivery Hero Kreditech Delivery Hero WestWing Hello Fresh Delivery Hero Blue Yonder Sound Clould Sound Clould Delivery Hero Windeln.de 24 Deutschland noch mit VC-Potential Es gibt keine großen VC-Runden in Deutschland? German Mega Rounds by Size Venture Capital Funding Rounds > US$ 50 m 568 445 350 191 60 50 50 50 Source: Crunchbase, Gründerszene, deutsche startups, div., Barkow Consulting Doch es gibt sie! 24
25 Deutschland noch mit VC-Potential Megarunden auch in Deutschland mit steigender Tendenz German Mega Rounds Rising Number of Venture Capital Funding Rounds > US$ 50 m 9 Rocket Internet Involved in Most Mega Rounds Number of Venture Capital Funding Rounds > US$ 50 m Rocket Others 6 5; 28% 2 1 13; 72% 2012 2013 2014 2015 YTD Source: Crunchbase, Gründerszene, deutsche startups, div., Barkow Consulting Source: Crunchbase, Gründerszene, deutsche startups, div., Barkow Consulting Anzahl der Megarunden steigt an Aber: Megarunden sind Rockets Reich US VCs die mit Abstand häufigsten Lead-Investoren 25
Kreditech Kreditech Lendico Saving Global SumUP auxmoney smawa Traxpay Paymill SumUP SoFi Square One97 Zenefits Lufax Cr. Karma Prosper Mozido Oscar Klarna Adyen ComBond Zuora Qufenqi Stripe Fin. Force Powa Fund.Circle Housing.com Jimubox izettle TransferWise 26 Deutschland noch mit VC-Potential FinTech: Largest VC-Investments Germany/Global Die größten Fundingrunden in Deutschland Fundingrunden in US$ m Biggest Global FinTech VC Fundraisers Kulumiertes Fundinvolumen in US$ m 1.766 92 13 90 Source: Barkow Consulting FinTech Money Map Source: Finovate, Bloomberg, Business Insider, CB Insights, Pitchbook, Barkow Consulting Deutsche FinTech-Fundingrunden sind im internationalen Vergleich noch klein 26
27 Barkow Consulting FinTech Club of 20 Another 5-Star-Database 29 Investors Countless Unicorns Only one Non US-Investor >750 Investments Several US$ billions invested Barkow Consulting FinTech Club of 20 die 29 wichtigsten FinTech Investoren weltweit 27
Google V RRE First Round a16z Amex Greylock Spark Summit Y Comb* SV Angel Route 66 Citi Goldman Ribbit Lightspeed Mastercard Accel Khosla NEA KPCB QED Index Bessemer Battery PayPal Intel Union Sq Redpoint IDG 28 Barkow Consulting FinTech Club of 20 An Exclusive Members List Global FinTech VC: Big Spenders In Number of FinTech Investments/portfolio companies VC Tech Bank Payments 38 33 28 28 27 27 28 26 25 24 24 24 24 23 23 22 22 22 22 22 22 21 21 21 21 20 20 20 20 Source: Company data, AngelList, CB Insights, Crunchbase, PYMNTS.com, Barkow Consulting 'FinTech Money Map' Google ist der Über-FinTech VC Investor 28
29 Barkow Consulting FinTech Club of 20 The Club of 20 by Sector Investors in Global FinTech Number of FinTech Portfolio Companies in % Investors in Global FinTech Number of FinTech Portfolio Companies by Country of Investor 10% 4% 9% 7% 74% VC Tech Bank Payments US UK Russia Spain Germany 96% Source: Company data, AngelList, CB Insights, Crunchbase, PYMNTS.com, Barkow Consulting 'FinTech Money Map' Source: Company data, AngelList, CB Insights, Crunchbase, PYMNTS.com, Barkow Consulting 'FinTech Money Map'' Traditionelle VCs dominieren A US Members Only Club (Almost) 29
30 Barkow Consulting FinTech Club of 20 The Club of 20 in Germany Investors in German FinTech Number of Investors by Type of Investor Share of German investments Number of Investments Active Not Active 2% Germany Others 8 21 98% Source: Company data, AngelList, CB Insights, Crunchbase, PYMNTS.com, Barkow Consulting 'FinTech Money Map' Source: Company data, AngelList, CB Insights, Crunchbase, PYMNTS.com, Barkow Consulting 'FinTech Money Map' 8 Co20 Investoren mit deutschen Investments Dt. Investments aber <2% Anteil an Co20 FinTech Investments 30
Accel Index Route 66 NEA Ribbit Summit Union Sq PayPal Saving Global auxmoney 360T Check24 Catawiki Payleven Vaamo Smple Surance Billsafe 31 Barkow Consulting FinTech Club of 20 The Club of 20 in Germany Leading FinTech VCs With German Investments Number of German Investments German FinTech Cos With Leading FinTech VCs Number of Leadings VCs 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Source: Barkow Consulting 'FinTech Money Map' Source: Barkow Consulting 'FinTech Money Map' Drei Co20 Investoren sogar mit zwei deutschen Investments Zwei deutsche FinTechs sogar mit zwei Co20 Investoren 31
Stripe FundersClub izettle robinhood Upstart coinbase No 7 No 7 No 7 No 7 No 7 No 7 No 7 No 14 No 14 No 14 No 14 No 14 No 14 No 14 No 14 No 14 No 14 No 14 No 14 No 14 No 14 No 14 No 14 No 14 32 Barkow Consulting FinTech Club of 20 Who Attracts Smart Money VCs? Companies Attracting Most Co20 Investors 7 6 5 4 3 Source: Barkow Consulting 'FinTech Money Map' Stripe & FundersClub mit den meisten Co20 Investoren 32
33 Boom & Bust Gartner Hype Cycle Peak Saturation Sustainable Growth Trough Start Gartner Hype-Zyklus beschreibt den typischen Verlauf der Erwartungen an technologische Innovationen 33
34 Boom & Bust Gartner Hype Cycle & Google Trends FinTech auf Google Trends Anzahl Suchanfragen relativ zu Gesamtsuchanfragen Source: Google Trends Looks like the beginning of a Hype Cycle 34
35 Boom & Bust Gartner Hype Cycle - Dt. Sonderweg für Finanzinnovationen Peak Deutscher Sonderweg R.I.P. Aktienkultur Neuer Markt Mezzanine Fonds Mittelstandsanleihen To be Continued Start Die deutsche Finanzindustrie hat allerdings ihren eigenen Hype-Zyklus 35
36 Fragen Antworten? 36
Kontakt: Peter Barkow Barkow Consulting GmbH Rethelstr. 38 D-40237 Düsseldorf PH: +49 (0) 211 17 17 256 PB@BarkowConsulting.com www.barkowconsulting.com @BarkowConsult Peter Barkow Peter Barkow Peter Barkow
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