Internationale Perspektiven post-fukushima: Atomausstieg und Umstieg auf intelligente Energiesysteme

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1 Internationale Perspektiven post-fukushima: Atomausstieg und Umstieg auf intelligente Energiesysteme Mycle Schneider Internationaler Berater für Energie- und Atompolitik, Paris, France 11. Regionaler Klimagipfel, Universität Trier, 9. Dezember 2011 Contact:

2 35 Reactor Startups and Shutdowns in the World in Units, from 1956 to 1 December Reactor Startup Reactor Shutdown Source: IAEA-PRIS, MSC, 2011

3 GWe Nuclear Reactors & Net Operating Capacity in the World in GWe, from 1954 to 1 December 2011 Reactors in operation 322 GWe 424 reactors 444 reactors Number of Reactors 359 GWe reactors Operable capacity Source: IAEA-PRIS, MSC, 2011

4 Reactor Startup Reactor Shutdown Reactor Startups and Shutdowns in the EU27 in Units, from 1956 to 1 December Source: IAEA-PRIS, MSC, 2011

5 GWe 160 Nuclear Reactors & Net Operating Capacity in the EU27 in GWe, from 1956 to 1 December GWe 177 reactors 169 reactors 123 GWe 134 reactors Number of Reactors Reactors in Operation Operable Capacity Source: IAEA-PRIS, MSC, 2011

6 TWh TWh Generation of Nuclear Electricity in the World in 2010 (net TWh) Total World 2,630 TWh United States France Japan Russia South Korea Germany Canada Ukraine China Spain United Kingdom Sweden Belgium Taiwan Czech Republic Switzerland Finland India Hungary Bulgaria Brazil Slovakia South Africa Romania Argentina Mexico Slovenia Netherlands Pakistan Armenia Source: IAEA-PRIS, 2011

7 45 Age of 437 Reactors in Operation in the World as of 1 April ! 35 Number of Reactors Mean Age 26 Years 22! 23! 19! 26! 22! 23! 20! ! 6! 11! 15! 9! 12! 15! 13! 14! 15! 12! 10! 11!11! 9! 6! 5 2! 3! 2! 4! 4! 4! 5! 6! 2! 4! 4! 5! 6! 3! 4! 4! 4! 2! Source: IAEA-PRIS, MSC, 2011

8 250 Number of Nuclear Reactors Listed as "Under Construction" by year, December Number of Reactors Cancelled or Suspended Projects! Completed and Ongoing Projects! Source: IAEA-PRIS, MSC, 2011

9 Reactors «Under Construction» in the World (1 December 2011) Country Units MWe (net) Construction Start Grid Connection China 27 27, ? Russia 10 8, ? India 6 4, South-Korea 5 5, Bulgaria 2 1, Japan 2 2, Slovakia Taiwan 2 2, Ukraine 2 1, Argentina Brazil 1 1, Finland 1 1, ? France 1 1, ? Pakistan USA 1 1, Total 64 61, ! Source: IAEA-PRIS, MSC, 2011

10 Technology Learning Curves Source: Cooper 2010

11 Negative Learning Curve US Nuclear Reactors Source: Cooper 2010

12 Negative Learning Curve of French PWRs Source: Arnulf Grübler, «An assessment of the costs of the French nuclear PWR program », 6 October 2009

13 Source: Greenpeace Finland 2011

14 Excessive Lead Times/Cost Overruns: Example Olkiluoto-3, Finland TVO submits environmental impact assessment report First concrete in August Project running 18 months late Project running 24 months late Project running at least 36 months late Project running at least 42 months late 2011 Project running about 54 months late 2014 Start-up? Lead Time: at least years since EIA Official Price: ~ 3 Billion (Guaranteed Fix Price) Cost Overrun at 6 Years after Construction Start: ~ 3.5 Billion (90%) New provisions likely (October 2011) Estimated Total: ~ 6.6 Billion or ~$8.8 Billion Sources: Various, compiled by MSC

15 Changes in Credit Rating of 48 US Nuclear Utilities Moody s is considering applying a more negative view for issuers that are actively pursuing new nuclear generation. Source: Moody s, New Nuclear Generation: Ratings Pressure Increasing, 2009

16 Französische Staatskonzerne in Schwierigkeiten EDF Aktienwert abgestürzt, seit 2007 um 78% hohe Verschuldung (29,2 Mrd. ) AREVA Aktienwert abgestürzt, seit 2007 um 72% Standard & Poor s stuft Stand Alone Credit Profile (SACP) herunter auf BB+ («junk bond») Sources: Company websites; Standard & Poor s, 15 April 2011 Nancy, 29 novembre 2011

17 Annual New Clean Energy Investment by Asset Class Source: Bloomberg/Deutsche Bank, 2 May 2011

18 Sources: Amory Lovins, 2010; Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC), Global Wind Energy Report 2010 (Brussels: 2001); IAEA, PRIS database; European Photovoltaic Industry Association, Global Market Outlook for Photovoltaics until 2014 (Brussels: May 2010)

19 New Wind Power vs. New Nuclear Capacity In 2010 the world has installed more than 50% more new wind capacity (38.3 GW), than nuclear capacity over the entire last decade (26.1 GW).

20 Source: Amory Lovins, September 2011

21 Source: EWEA 2011

22 Fukushima-Effekt in ausgewählten Ländern (1) Japan Tiefes kollektives Trauma. Hamaoka, Fukushima-Daini. Aufgabe der Neubauprojekte. Reorganisation der Atomaufsicht. Erneuerbare Energien Gesetz (26. August 2011). Gründung der Japan Renewable Energy Foundation (September 2011) durch Masayoshi SON, Chef von SoftBank, Japans reichster Mann. Die kommende energiepolitische Reform könnte so bedeutend oder noch bedeutender sein als die Reformen, die auf die erste und zweite Ölkrise folgten. Ken Koyama Geschäftsführer Japan Institute of Energy Economics 3. Oktober 2011

23 Japan nach Fukushima Im November 2011 noch 11 der 54 Vor- Fukushima Reaktoren in Betrieb. ( Am 9. Dezember 2011 nur 8 Reaktoren übrig.) Operating Shut Down After Earthquakes Shut Down For Refueling/Maintenance Sources: Mainichi, CNIC, Green-Action November 2011

24 Windpower Plants in Earthquake- Affected Areas 35 Sites 190 Turbines 270 MW in 5 Prefectures 2 Sites 37 Turbines <30 km Fukushima Damage Serious Impact on Power Lines but only 1 Slightly Leaning Turbine Sources: JWEA, JWPA, 12 August 2011

25 Spectacular Demand Reduction: TEPCO 1st Semester 2011 vs Demand GW 50 62GW (TEPCO supply capacity incl. pumped storage) 52GW (TEPCO supply capacity excl. pumped storage) st Sem Hours Source: TEPCO, ISEP 2011

26 Fukushima-Effekt in ausgewählten Ländern (2) China Einfrieren der Genehmigungen für neue Projekte Sicherheitsüberprüfung (in Betrieb/im Bau) Betriebsaufnahme neuer Reaktor am 3. Mai Aufgabe der CPR1000 Serie (Sommer 2011)? Beschleunigung der Erneuerbaren Energien. Verdoppelung Ziel PV von 5 GW auf 10 GW in 2015.

27 Sources: IAEA-PRIS, 2011; GWEC 2011; Chinese 12th Five-Year Plan; media reports

28 Fukushima-Effekt in ausgewählten Ländern (3) United States President Obama / Minister Chu nuclear has an important role to play in our energy mix. Senator Liebermann: kind of quietly, quickly put the brakes on until we can absorb what happened in Japan. NRG, main shareholder of South Texas Project (2 new reactors), has abandoned project (loss $481 million). HSBC (London): US public may find it difficult to support major nuclear new build and we expect that no new plant extensions will be granted either.

29 Beispiel US Militär Off-Grid and Micro-Grid power next Big Thing for US military (todaysdefense.com) On 8 August 2011 Boeing and Siemens (entirely abandoning nuclear) announced strategic alliance to develop micro-grid systems that reduce costs and increase efficiency. The alliance s micro-grid management solution will be designed to: - implement economical energy-efficiency tools that allow for analysis, control and automation of energy processes - use smart energy controls to provide real-time data to manage energy use - integrate renewable energy sources and storage. In 2009 General Electric launched smart grid at Twentynine Palms Base, California, the world s largest Marine Corps Base, to optimize power generation and storage and to enhance capacities to use renewables. Sources: Siemens, Press Release, 8 August 2011, INTECH, 14 July 2009

30 Fukushima-Effekt in ausgewählten Ländern (4) Frankreich Regierung weiterhin auf Atomkurs. Chef Atomaufsicht: Niemand kann je garantieren, dass es in Frankreich niemals zu einem schwerwiegenden Unfall kommen wird. (OECD, Paris, 8 June 2011) Erhebliche Nachbesserungen gefordert (November 2011) Verlust Parteienkonsens. Atomwahlen Öffentliche Meinung.

31 Fukushima-Effekt in ausgewählten Ländern (5) Italien Referendum Juni 2011 (94% gegen Atomkraft) Schweiz Erarbeitung neuer Energieszenarien und entsprechender Aktionspläne (Bundesamt für Energie) Parlamentarische Abstimmung über Verbot des AKW-Neubaus (28 September 2011) Taiwan Keine Laufzeitverlängerung Langfristig atomfreie Insel

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33 Even the French Public Increasingly in Favor of a Nuclear Phase-out Do you wish that France March 2011 June 2011 rapidly stops its nuclear program and the 19% 15% operation of its reactors phases-out its nuclear program and the operation of its reactors progressively over 25 or 30 years continues its nuclear program and the building of new plants 51% 62% 30% 22% don t know 1% Total in favor of phase-out 70% 77%! Source: IFOP, June 2011

34 Only Three In Ten (31%) Globally Support Continuation of Nuclear Builds, With Only Poland Showing Majority Support CONTINUE TO BUILD NUCLEAR Some/other people say that what happened in Japan was an unforeseeable and isolated event so that there really is nothing that should stop the nuclear industry from continuing to build and operate nuclear plants to produce electricity in other parts of the world.. STOP FUTURE NUCLEAR BUILDS Other/some people say that what happened at the nuclear plant in Japan demonstrates that all nuclear facilities are vulnerable to unforeseen events that could have a deadly impact on those who live in and around them. As a result we should stop all further plans to build nuclear plants anywhere. à Which is closer to your point of view? Base: Have seen, read or heard in Q8 n= Source: IPSOS, June 2011

35 The World View: Nuclear Not A Viable Long Term Option à Overall, do you think that electricity produced from nuclear energy will be a viable long term option for countries who need to produce it in that way or do you think it is only a limited and soon obsolete form of producing energy for the future? Base: All Respondents n = Source: IPSOS, June 2011

36 Drei Bereiche besonderen Interesses Last Management Netzentwicklungen Speicher

37 Simulation for Summer Load Management in Texas (RMI) - 1 (!" '!" &!"!"# %!" *+,-,./0"01/2" $!" #!"!" #" $" %" &" '" (" )" $%&# Source: Amory Lovins, September 2011 Tuesday 13 September

38 Simulation for Summer Load Management in Texas (RMI) - 2 (!" Energy efficiency can reverse peak demand growth '!" &!"!"# %!" $!" #!"!" #" $" %" &" '" (" )" $%&# *+,-./,0" 12-3-/45"5647" *+,-,./0"01/2" 8647"96":..9" Source: Amory Lovins, September 2011 Tuesday 13 September

39 Simulation for Summer Load Management in Texas (RMI) - 3 (!" '!" Energy efficiency can reverse peak demand growth Renewables like wind and solar are not always correlated to demand!"# &!" %!" $!" #!"!" #" $" %" &" '" (" )" $%&# *+,-./,0" *+,-./,0" 12345" 12-3-/45"5647" 6-/7" *+,-,./0"01/2" 8647"96":..9" 85-9-/43"3247" :247";2"<..;" Source: Amory Lovins, September 2011 Tuesday 13 September

40 Simulation for Summer Load Management in Texas (RMI) - 4 (!" PHEV charging and demand response can reshape the demand profile to match renewable output better '!" Energy efficiency can reverse peak demand growth Renewables like wind and solar are not always correlated to demand!"# &!" %!" $!" #!"!" #" $" %" &" '" (" )" $%&# *+,-./,0" "-/" *+,-./,0" *+,-./,0" 12345" 13754" 12-3-/45"5647" 6-/7" 8-/9" *+,-,./0"01/2" 8647"96":..9" 85-9-/43"3247" :4-6-/57"7359" :247";2"<..;" ;359"23"<..2" =-/57"7359" Source: Amory Lovins, September 2011 Tuesday 13 September

41 Simulation for Summer Load Management in Texas (RMI) - 5 (!" Storage discharge and flexible biomass can meet peak demand when wind and solar output are low PHEV charging and demand response can reshape the demand profile to match renewable output better Energy efficiency can reverse peak demand growth Renewables like wind and solar are not always correlated to demand!"# '!" &!" %!" $!" #!" Note: PHEV = Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles!" #" $" %" &" '" (" )" $%&# *+,-./,0" "-/" *+,-./,0" "372" "-/" *+,-./,0" 8-395::" *+,-./,0" 12345" 13754" 13;54" 12-3-/45"5647" 6-/7" 8-/9" *+,-,./0"01/2" <-/=" 8647"96":..9" 85-9-/43"3247" :4-6-/57"7359" >.32?.495;" :247";2"<..;" =-/57"7359" A35="23"9..2" B-/5;";35=" Firm renewable resources like geothermal, small hydro solar-thermal-electric, and biomass/wastefueled power generation can be used to balance wind and solar Source: Amory Lovins, September 2011 Tuesday 13 September

42 CO2-Emissions of the Electricity Generation in Germany Germany Source: Umweltbundesamt, 2009 Bangkok, 17 May 2010

43 Erneuerbare Energien in der Stromproduktion und Treibhausgasemissionen in Deutschland Anteil (in %) 3 14 Produktion (in TWh) Windkapazität (in MW) 68 22,000 PV Kapazität (in MW) 2 3,800 CO2 (in Mio) Source: BMU 2009 Bangkok, 17 May 2010

44 CO2-Emissions and Electricity Consumption in Germany Germany 2 Source: Umweltbundesamt, 2009 Bangkok, 17 May 2010

45 Versorgungssicherheit durch dezentrale Netze Beispiel Kuba Tage mit erheblichen Blackouts: 2004: : : : 0 In 2007, über die Hälfte von Kubas 6 GW dezentral. Netz neu designed in inselfähige Mikronetze. In 2008, die wichtigsten Energiedienstleistungen auch nach zwei Hurricanes aufrechterhalten. Source: Amory Lovins, September 2011

46 A More Internet-like Power Grid Evolves Real-time information & participation Integration of new applications Central & local intelligence Central & local sources Smart (embedded) electronics Source: KEMA

47 Smart Grid + Smart Building = Smart Community and remember your car! Source: KEMA

48 Speicheroptionen Batterien (AES: 24 MW in Betrieb, 100 MW in Planung) Wasser (Pumpspeicher, über/unter Erde) Wasserstoff - synthetisches Methan (Speicher, Transport wie Erdgas) Eis (Gefriertruhen, Kühlschränke) Heisses Wasser (Wärmepumpen, zusätzliche Warmwassertanks) Druckluft Flywheels, etc.

49 Figure 1: Global installed and planned grid-scale storage projects (MW) Global Installed and Planned Grid-Scale Storage Projects (MW) 1,000, ,000 10,00 1, ,284 Pumped hydro 116,918 1, CAES Flywheels PbA NaS Ni-Cad Li-ion Flow batteries Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance , Planned / In construction Installed Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Energy Smart Technologies, Results Book 2010 ELECTRI The first m entering th and Gene this was s As the o so public participan path to hig Note: CAES = Compressed Air Energy Storage; PbA = Lead Acid; NaS = Sodium Sulphur; Ni-Cad = Nickel Cadmium; Li-ion = Lithium Ion The need Vehicle m drive train the develo infrastruc more seri infrastruc impacts o potential n

50 Schlussfolgerungen (1) Atomkraft spielt eine sehr begrenzte Rolle im internationalen Energiesektor: 13% Strom, 5% Primärenergie, 2% Endenergie in der Welt. Weiteres Absinken ist zu erwarten. Atomkraft ist teuer und langsam. Fukushima verschärft Probleme: Kosten (Sicherheit, Versicherungen, Finanzierung ), öffentliche Meinung, politische Parteien, Kompetenz... Nach Fukushima und spektakulären Reaktionen in den führenden Wirtschaftsmächten à keine identifizierbare Zukunftsaussichten für Atomkraft. Neue Energiepolitiken sollten die Energiedienstleistung in den Mittelpunkt stellen. Intelligente Energiekonzepte und Technologien entwickeln sich rasant. Speichertechnologien, auch netzangekoppelt, sind bereits kosteneffizient. Einsatz der Erneuerbaren wird sich mit Speicher und Netzentwicklungen beschleunigen.

51 Schlussfolgerungen (2) Die Energiezukunft liegt in erschwinglichen, dezentralen supereffizienten Technologien, intelligenten Netzen und nachhaltiger Stadtentwicklung. Atompolitik zentralistisch, unflexibel und autokratisch symbolisiert das Gegenteil. We know the country that harnesses the power of clean, renewable energy will lead the 21st century. President Barack Obama State of the Union Address 27 January 2010 They are moving very strongly down the road to a low carbon economy. China is becoming the leader. Sir Nicholas Stern Madrid, 13 June 2011

52 Vielen Dank! Mail: Fon: Note: I m grateful to Amory Lovins, Rocky Mountain Institute, who provided information and a number of slides for this presentation.