Weltweite Entwicklung der Kernenergie Dr. Stefan Nießen Vice President Research, Innovation and Patent Management AREVA GmbH Dresden, Kraftwerkstechnisches Kolloquium 6. Oktober, 03 Kraftwerkstechnisches Kolloquium 03 - AREVA GmbH Proprietary - AREVA
Fundamentale Entwicklungen unverändert tep Macroeconomics Energy demand multiplied by by 050 990 00 030 BUSINESS AS USUAL 00 75 50 5 0 050 970 $ 0 /barrel of oil Geopolitics Resources Environment 990 Limitation of fossil resources Barils Production in barrels of oil 00 990 00 030 tco GHG emissions cut by half by 050 990 00 030 050 BUSINESS AS USUAL 450ppm SCENARIO 050 75 50 5 00 75 50 5 +6% 0 Nuclear Economics +60% Coal +70% Nat. gas CCGT CO price x Fuel price x Reference case Energy demand: x by 050 Energy independence and security of supply Ineluctable decline of fossile resources + pressure on prices GHG emissions: goal = 50% reduction by 050 Energy cost, stability, predictability 0 WEO 009 035 «New Policies» Scenario World primary energy demand** World electricity demand** Nuclear energy demand** +.3 % / year +,7 % / year +. % / year Source: IEA ETP: reference scenario 00 - UNFCC, CERA 009 **Average annual growth rate Kraftwerkstechnisches Kolloquium 03 - AREVA GmbH Proprietary - AREVA
Die installierte Leistung wächst weltweit AREVA's Nuclear Scenario Reassessed at end of June 0 600 583 GWe 450 300 378 (58) 304 On 7 th July 0 the IAEA Director General Yukiya Amano said: 50 0 00 Plant closures 59 Life extensions New builds 030 Despite Fukushima Daiichi, global use of nuclear power will continue to grow in the coming decades and will remain an important option for many countries Jahrestagung Kerntechnik 0 Providing state-of-the-art nuclear technologies for new generation capacities S. vom Scheidt May 3, 0 - p.3
Market Overview Reactors in Operation 7 Canada 04 USA Mexico Sweden 0 4 Finland 33 Russia UK 6 Germany Netherlands 4 Slovakia 9 Belgium 7 5 Ukraine 5 Switzerland 6 Czech Rep. 58 France 4 Hungary Iran 8 Slovenia Armenia Pakistan Spain Romania 3 0 Bulgaria India 50 5 China 3 Japan South Korea 6 Taïwan Brazil Argentina South Africa Source: WNA, May 0 433 reactors connected to the grid worldwide Jahrestagung Kerntechnik 0 Providing state-of-the-art nuclear technologies for new generation capacities S. vom Scheidt May 3, 0 - p.4
Market Overview Reactors under construction 3 Canada Finland 0 Russia USA France Slovakia 6 Pakistan 3 China 3 Japan South Korea 7 India Taiwan Brazil Argentina First concrete for reactor poured or major refurbishment under way; Source: WNA, May 0 Jahrestagung Kerntechnik 0 Providing state-of-the-art nuclear technologies for new generation capacities S. vom Scheidt May 3, 0 - p.5 63 reactors under construction
Market Overview Reactors planned 3 Canada USA Finland Lithuania 7 Russia UK 4 Belarus 6 Poland France Ukraine Kazakhstan Czech Republic Romania Bulgaria Armenia South Korea 4 6 0 Turkey Iran 5 China Japan Egypt Jordan 6 Bangladesh UAE 4 India 4 Vietnam Indonesia Argentina Approvals, funding or major commitment in place, mostly expected in operation within 8 years; Source: WNA, May 0 6 reactors on order or planned Jahrestagung Kerntechnik 0 Providing state-of-the-art nuclear technologies for new generation capacities S. vom Scheidt May 3, 0 - p.6
90 Prozent aller Kernkraftbetreiber sind Kunden von AREVA Europa & Afrika ~40 Reaktoren 4: Serviceleistungen 35: Kernbrennstoff Nord- / Südamerika ~30 Reaktoren 6: Serviceleistungen 00: Kernbrennstoff Asien ~90 Reaktoren 7: Serviceleistungen 90: Kernbrennstoff AREVA macht Serviceleistungen für über 360 Reaktoren weltweit Kraftwerkstechnisches Kolloquium 03 - AREVA GmbH Proprietary - AREVA S. 7
Nuclear Power in Europe 85 NPP in operation 4 NPP under construction 4 43 NPP planned share in power generation in %, 0 8 Belgium 54 % Spain 0 % United Kingdom 58 8 % 6 France 78 % 4-7 Netherlands 5 4 % 9 Switzerland 4 % Germany 8 % Sweden 6 40 % 0 Czech Rep. 4 33 % 4 Finland 3 % 4 6 Slovakia 54 % - Russia 8 % Lithuania 0 % 33 0 7 Poland 0 % Ukraine 47 % 5 Romania 9 % Bulgaria 33 % Slovenia Hungary 4 % 43 % Kraftwerkstechnisches Kolloquium 03 - AREVA GmbH Proprietary - AREVA Source: WNA, May 0
Marktentwicklung Modernisierung weltweit 50 00 Nunmer of reactors under construction Gleichzeitig im Bau befindliche Kernkraftwerksleistung 980 gleichzeitig im Bau befindliche Kernkraftwerksleistung Developing countries Japan and S.Korea E. Europe im Jahr 980 00 50 W. Europe GW(e) North America 59GWe 00 50 0 Jahre 0 95 95 953 954 955 956 957 958 959 960 96 96 963 964 965 966 967 968 969 970 97 97 973 974 975 976 977 978 979 980 98 98 983 984 985 986 987 988 989 990 99 99 993 994 995 996 997 998 999 000 00 00 003 004 005 006 007 Quelle: IAEA Kraftwerkstechnisches Kolloquium 03 - AREVA GmbH Proprietary - AREVA S. 9
Olkiluoto 3 AREVA Kraftwerkstechnisches Kolloquium 03 - AREVA GmbH Proprietary - AREVA
Elektromechanische Installationen im NI Batterien in den Sicherheitsgebäuden eingebaut AREVA AREVA Kraftwerkstechnisches Kolloquium 03 - AREVA GmbH Proprietary - AREVA
Kuppel der Flugzeugabsturzhülle Kraftwerkstechnisches Kolloquium 03 - AREVA GmbH Proprietary - AREVA
Reactor Cavity / Core Internals Storage Leak-tightness test AREVA Kraftwerkstechnisches Kolloquium 03 - AREVA GmbH Proprietary - AREVA
Seewasser Flutung der Kühlwasserstrukturen AREVA AREVA Kraftwerkstechnisches Kolloquium 03 - AREVA GmbH Proprietary - AREVA
Turbinenhalle Kraftwerkstechnisches Kolloquium 03 - AREVA GmbH Proprietary - AREVA
China: Taishan & EGIS / Laurent Malet EGIS / Laurent Malet Kraftwerkstechnisches Kolloquium 03 - AREVA GmbH Proprietary - AREVA
July 03: Dome lifting in Flamanville Kraftwerkstechnisches Kolloquium 03 - AREVA GmbH Proprietary - AREVA
Zusammenfassung AREVA glaubt an die Zukunft der Kernenergie - die Fundamentaldaten haben sich nicht geändert Neubauprogramme sind praktisch unbeeinflusst durch Fukushima, jedoch sind einige verzögert. Die meisten Länder und selbst in Europa an Deutschlands Grenzen halten an ihren Nuklearprogrammen fest. Die EPR TM -Projekte profitieren weltweit vom Erfahrungsrückfluss bei Lizensierung in fünf Ländern, Bau sowie Projektleitung in vier laufenden Projekten Das EPR TM Design erfüllt sämtliche Anforderungen nach Fukushima AREVA bietet verlässlich Kerntechnik nach Stand von Wissenschaft und Technik weltweit Jahrestagung Kerntechnik 0 Providing state-of-the-art nuclear technologies for new generation capacities S. vom Scheidt May 3, 0 - p.8
[Editor and Copyright, 0]: AREVA NP GmbH Paul-Gossen-Straße 00 905 Erlangen, Germany. It is forbidden to reproduce the present publication in its entirety or partially in whatever form without prior written consent. Legal action may be taken against any infringer and/or any person breaching the aforementioned conditions. Subject to change and error without notice. Illustrations may differ from the original. The statements and information contained in this brochure are for advertising purpose only and do not constitute an offer of contract. They shall neither be construed as a guarantee of quality or durability, nor as warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. These statements, even if they are future-oriented, are based on information that was available to us at the date of publication. Type, quantity and characteristics of goods and services are subject to formal individual contracts. Jahrestagung Kerntechnik 0 Providing state-of-the-art nuclear technologies for new generation capacities S. vom Scheidt May 3, 0 - p.9